AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 13 · Sat Nov 28 · 5:00 AM
#106Away
Liberty
0-0 · AVR 37.8
29p
#125Home
Missouri State
0-0 · AVR 30.2
22p
LIB 69%31% MOST
Spread
LIB -7.0
Total
52
Moneyline
LIB-219MOST+219
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← LIB advantageevenMOST advantage →
LIB throw
LIB +16
LIB run
LIB +12
MOST throw
MOST WR #45MOST protection #125
MOST +7
MOST run
MOST backs #83
even

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Vasko
Alex Birchmeier
vs
Kellen Lindstrom
LT · LIB
EDGE · MOST
78.7
79.5
dead even
when MOST throws
Jmariyae Robinson
vs
Izaiah Guy
X · MOST
CB1 · LIB
76.8
76.4
dead even
when MOST runs
Ramone Green Jr.
vs
Kyle Ferm
RB · MOST
MLB · LIB
61.8
60.4
dead even
when LIB runs
Kam Davis
vs
Jared Lloyd
RB · LIB
MLB · MOST
53.4
62.0
MOST +9
over the middle
Jeron Askren
vs
Ronald Moore Jr.
TE · MOST
FS · LIB
59.4
50.8
MOST +9
when LIB throws
Makai Jackson
vs
Dylan Dixson
X · LIB
CB1 · MOST
52.6
53.2
dead even

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Liberty
SIzaiah Guy
76.4134/1427
LBKyle Ferm
60.4278/878
CBJamal Miles
56.7571/1427
QBEthan Vasko
56.088/308
LBDerrell Farrar
54.5396/878
RBKam Davis
53.4192/514

also out — Erwil Anthony Jr. (OL), Aaron Hester (DL)

Missouri State
WRJmariyae Robinson
76.828/777
LBJared Lloyd
62.0256/878
RBRamone Green Jr.
61.893/514
TEJeron Askren
59.458/287
LBCooper Roy
55.4383/878
SDylan Dixson
53.2670/1427

Common opponents

6 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Liberty
opponent
Missouri State
home+5.7
Florida International#109
-8.8away
home-2.5
Western Kentucky#75
-16.9away
away+1.2
Delaware#102
-8.3away
home+16.4
Sam Houston#137
+6.9home
away+2.5
Kennesaw State#105
-2.0home
away+8.6
New Mexico State#130
+4.2home

Projected margin

80% between -25 and 11
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKLIB +7.095% interval: -31.5 to 17.680% interval: -24.8 to 10.9-25+11LIB wins 69%MOST wins 31%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ LIB 28–21 MOSTMOST 18–53 LIB neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMOST 21–49 LIB neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesMOST 25–46 LIB neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesMOST 28–42 LIB neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesMOST 32–39 LIB neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesMOST 35–35 LIB neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesMOST 39–32 LIB neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesMOST 42–28 LIB neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesMOST 46–25 LIB neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMOST 14–49 LIB neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMOST 18–46 LIB neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesMOST 21–42 LIB neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesMOST 25–39 LIB neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesMOST 28–35 LIB neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesMOST 32–32 LIB neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesMOST 35–28 LIB neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesMOST 39–25 LIB neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesMOST 42–21 LIB neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMOST 11–46 LIB neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMOST 14–42 LIB neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesMOST 18–39 LIB neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesMOST 21–35 LIB neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesMOST 25–32 LIB neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesMOST 28–28 LIB neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesMOST 32–25 LIB neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesMOST 35–21 LIB neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesMOST 39–18 LIB neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMOST 7–42 LIB neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMOST 11–39 LIB neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesMOST 14–35 LIB neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesMOST 18–32 LIB neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesMOST 21–28 LIB neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesMOST 25–25 LIB neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesMOST 28–21 LIB neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesMOST 32–18 LIB neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesMOST 35–14 LIB neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMOST 4–39 LIB neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMOST 7–35 LIB neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesMOST 11–32 LIB neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesMOST 14–28 LIB neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesMOST 18–25 LIB neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesMOST 21–21 LIB neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesMOST 25–18 LIB neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesMOST 28–14 LIB neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesMOST 32–11 LIB neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMOST 0–35 LIB neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMOST 4–32 LIB neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesMOST 7–28 LIB neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesMOST 11–25 LIB neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesMOST 14–21 LIB neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesMOST 18–18 LIB neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesMOST 21–14 LIB neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesMOST 25–11 LIB neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesMOST 28–7 LIB neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)MOST 0–28 LIB neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesMOST 4–25 LIB neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesMOST 7–21 LIB neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesMOST 11–18 LIB neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesMOST 14–14 LIB neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesMOST 18–11 LIB neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesMOST 21–7 LIB neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesMOST 25–4 LIB neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomes70635649423528totalLIB +35LIB +21LIB +7MOST +7MOST +21margin →