CFB
Model
All rankings
Conference USA

Liberty

Flames5-11st in Conference USA
Williams Stadium (VA) · Lynchburg, VA · 25,000
TeamCarried by the defense
OffenseMethodical · averageweak point: explosiveness, 119th
DefenseHavoc-driven · strong · built to defend the passweak point: big plays allowed, 115th

The season

Best win
W 34-17 @ #127 Coastal Carolina
Wk 4 · Sep 24 · won as a 45% underdog
Worst loss
L 13-20 @ #51 James Madison
Wk 1 · Sep 5 · model had 18%

Schedule

model 5/6 straight up

Opponent ranks use the selected season's current or final board.

  1. Week 1 · Sep 5
    atJames Madison
    L 13–20
    Win chance 18%Model margin -12.2Game details
  2. Week 2 · Sep 12
    vsGardner-Webb
    W 24–23
    Win chance 97%Model margin +24.8Game details
  3. Week 3 · Sep 19
    vsBall State
    W 51–15
    Win chance 69%Model margin +6.6Game details
  4. Week 4 · Sep 24
    atCoastal Carolina
    W 34–17
    Win chance 45%Model margin -1.7Game details
  5. Week 5 · Oct 2
    atDelaware
    W 30–14
    Win chance 53%Model margin +1.1Game details
  6. Week 6 · Oct 8
    vsSam Houston
    W 35–3
    Win chance 77%Model margin +10.1Game details
  7. Week 8 · Oct 22
    atKennesaw State
    Win chance 60%Model margin +3.4Game details
  8. Week 9 · Oct 31
    vsFlorida International
    Win chance 73%Model margin +8.1Game details
  9. Week 10 · Nov 7
    atNew Mexico State
    Win chance 70%Model margin +7.2Game details
  10. Week 11 · Nov 14
    vsMiddle Tennessee
    Win chance 87%Model margin +15.3Game details
  11. Week 12 · Nov 21
    vsWestern Kentucky
    Win chance 80%Model margin +11.4Game details
  12. Week 13 · Nov 28
    atMissouri State
    Win chance 76%Model margin +9.4Game details

Profile

Team DNA

rank of 138
Offense efficiency
49
#73 of 138
Defense efficiency
84
#19 of 138
Efficiency
#630.17
EPA / play
#28-0.04
#470.28
Pass
#15-0.04
#550.14
Rush
#730.05
#3048%
Success
#1334%
Big plays & havoc
#1191.13
Explosive
#1151.34
#5614%
Havoc
#2419%
Position groupsby overall player grade
QB79th
RB31st
WR84th
TE67th
OL32nd
DL106th
LB130th
DB54th

Roster

Core lineup

overall grade
Offense
QB
Deshawn PurdieJR
936 yds · 7 TD · 0 INT
75.9
106th QB
RB
Kam DavisSO
457 yds · 3 TD · 7.1 YPC
85.1
38th RB
WR
Makai JacksonSR
19 rec · 469 yds · 5 TD
80.8
48th WR
WR
Darius CopelandJR
8 rec · 125 yds · 1 TD
67.5
358th WR
TE
Zeke WimbushJR
7 rec · 88 yds · 0 TD
69.8
97th TE
Defense
LB
Aidan VaughanSR
25 tkl · 1.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
68.4
434th LB
LB
Kyle FermSO
5 tkl · 1.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
65.8
567th LB
S
Izaiah GuyJR
8 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
78.7
79th DB
CB
Elijah HopkinsSR
8 tkl · 0 PD · 1 INT
75.6
170th DB
S
Jayden DavisJR
6 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
71.9
330th DB

Injury report

1 out
out
J. MarshallRB

Marshall is hampered by leg injury, and he will be idle for the remainder of the season.

73.1202510-08
Ques.
Bo BurklowTE

Burklow is hampered with an undisclosed injury, and it has yet to be determined if he will play against the Kennesaw State on Thursday, Octo

49.610-09
Ques.
Caleb RyanTE

Ryan is nursing an undisclosed injury, and it is unknown if he will play against Kennesaw State on Thursday, October 22nd.

47.810-09
Ques.
Cam WoodRB

Wood is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it has yet to be determined if he will face the Kennesaw State on Thursday, October 22nd.

—10-09

Ahead

From the full-season Monte Carlo

Playoff impact

Playoff chances in the published season simulation, depending on each game’s result. Games follow the remaining schedule.

  1. Week 8 · Oct 22
    atKennesaw State
    Playoff chance if win
    1.9%
    Playoff chance if loss
    0.4%
  2. Week 9 · Oct 31
    vsFlorida International
    Playoff chance if win
    1.8%
    Playoff chance if loss
    0.3%
  3. Week 10 · Nov 7
    atNew Mexico State
    Playoff chance if win
    1.7%
    Playoff chance if loss
    0.4%
  4. Week 11 · Nov 14
    vsMiddle Tennessee
    Playoff chance if win
    1.5%
    Playoff chance if loss
    0.4%
  5. Week 12 · Nov 21
    vsWestern Kentucky
    Playoff chance if win
    1.6%
    Playoff chance if loss
    0.3%
  6. Week 13 · Nov 28
    atMissouri State
    Playoff chance if win
    1.7%
    Playoff chance if loss
    0.3%

Past seasons

Year by year
-2.0 points since 2022
404855637054.3202258.9202355.0202452.32025
2022 54.32023 58.92024 55.02025 52.3

2025

4-8
D-I rank
#101
Rating
52.3
Listed games · 12
WLLLLWWWLLLL
307 pts scored318 allowed
Season schedule
  1. W1 vs MaineW 28–7
  2. W2 at Jacksonville StateL 24–34
  3. W3 at Bowling GreenL 13–23
  4. W4 vs James MadisonL 13–31
  5. W5 at Old DominionL 7–21
  6. W7 at UTEPW 19–8
  7. W8 vs New Mexico StateW 30–27
  8. W10 vs DelawareW 59–30
  9. W11 vs Missouri StateL 17–21
  10. W12 at Florida InternationalL 27–34
  11. W13 at Louisiana TechL 28–34
  12. W14 vs Kennesaw StateL 42–48

2024

8-3
D-I rank
#97
Rating
55.0
Listed games · 11
WWWWWLLWWWL
338 pts scored256 allowed
Season schedule
  1. W1 vs CampbellW 41–24
  2. W2 at New Mexico StateW 30–24
  3. W3 vs UTEPW 28–10
  4. W4 vs East CarolinaW 35–24
  5. W7 vs Florida InternationalW 31–24
  6. W9 at Kennesaw StateL 24–27
  7. W10 vs Jacksonville StateL 21–31
  8. W11 at Middle TennesseeW 37–17
  9. W12 at MassachusettsW 35–34
  10. W13 vs Western KentuckyW 38–21
  11. W14 at Sam HoustonL 18–20

2023

13-0
D-I rank
#69
Rating
58.9
Listed games · 13
WWWWWWWWWWWWW
530 pts scored295 allowed
Season schedule
  1. W1 vs Bowling GreenW 34–24
  2. W2 vs New Mexico StateW 33–17
  3. W3 at BuffaloW 55–27
  4. W4 at Florida InternationalW 38–6
  5. W6 vs Sam HoustonW 21–16
  6. W7 at Jacksonville StateW 31–13
  7. W8 vs Middle TennesseeW 42–35
  8. W9 at Western KentuckyW 42–29
  9. W10 vs Louisiana TechW 56–30
  10. W11 vs Old DominionW 38–10
  11. W12 vs MassachusettsW 49–25
  12. W13 at UTEPW 42–28
  13. W14 vs New Mexico StateW 49–35

2022

8-4
D-I rank
#102
Rating
54.3
Listed games · 12
WWLWWWWWWLLL
339 pts scored299 allowed
Season schedule
  1. W1 at Southern MissW 29–27
  2. W2 vs UABW 21–14
  3. W3 at Wake ForestL 36–37
  4. W4 vs AkronW 21–12
  5. W5 at Old DominionW 38–24
  6. W6 at MassachusettsW 42–24
  7. W7 vs Gardner-WebbW 21–20
  8. W8 vs BYUW 41–14
  9. W10 at ArkansasW 21–19
  10. W11 at UConnL 33–36
  11. W12 vs Virginia TechL 22–23
  12. W13 vs New Mexico StateL 14–49