AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 10 · Sat Nov 7 · 5:00 AM
#106Away
Liberty
0-0 · AVR 37.8
30p
#130Home
New Mexico State
0-0 · AVR 26.9
21p
LIB 72%28% NMSU
Spread
LIB -8.6
Total
50
Moneyline
LIB-256NMSU+256
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← LIB advantageevenNMSU advantage →
LIB throw
LIB +12
LIB run
LIB +16
NMSU throw
LIB +11
NMSU run
LIB +17

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Vasko
Alex Birchmeier
vs
Reeves Baller
LT · LIB
EDGE · NMSU
78.7
64.0
LIB +15
when LIB throws
Makai Jackson
vs
Bernock Iya
X · LIB
CB1 · NMSU
52.6
74.2
NMSU +22
when NMSU throws
Brodie Malone-Bradford
vs
Izaiah Guy
X · NMSU
CB1 · LIB
49.2
76.4
LIB +27
when LIB runs
Kam Davis
vs
Sone Aupiu
RB · LIB
MLB · NMSU
53.4
68.2
NMSU +15
when NMSU runs
Dijon Stanley
vs
Kyle Ferm
RB · NMSU
MLB · LIB
48.5
60.4
LIB +12
over the middle
LaKelsey Johnson Jr.
vs
Walter Owens
TE · LIB
FS · NMSU
52.0
50.5
dead even

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Liberty
SIzaiah Guy
76.4134/1427
LBKyle Ferm
60.4278/878
CBJamal Miles
56.7571/1427
QBEthan Vasko
56.088/308
LBDerrell Farrar
54.5396/878
RBKam Davis
53.4192/514

also out — Erwil Anthony Jr. (OL), Aaron Hester (DL)

New Mexico State
SBernock Iyaout
74.2161/1427
LBSone Aupiu
68.2174/878
LBTory Gethers
67.9179/878
SNick Session
64.6369/1427
CBLorenzo Smith
51.3733/1427
WRBrodie Malone-Bradford
49.2335/777

also out — Josiah Thomas (TE)

Common opponents

6 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Liberty
opponent
New Mexico State
home+16.4
Sam Houston#137
+0.2away
home+5.7
Florida International#109
-10.4away
home+10.1
Middle Tennessee#124
-6.0away
away+7.0
Missouri State#125
-4.2away
home-2.5
Western Kentucky#75
-13.6home
away+1.2
Delaware#102
-5.0home

Projected margin

80% between -26 and 9
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKLIB +8.695% interval: -32.5 to 15.380% interval: -26 to 8.8-26+9LIB wins 72%NMSU wins 28%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ LIB 28–21 NMSUNMSU 18–53 LIB neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesNMSU 21–49 LIB neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesNMSU 25–46 LIB neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesNMSU 28–42 LIB neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesNMSU 32–39 LIB neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesNMSU 35–35 LIB neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesNMSU 39–32 LIB neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesNMSU 42–28 LIB neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesNMSU 46–25 LIB neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesNMSU 14–49 LIB neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesNMSU 18–46 LIB neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesNMSU 21–42 LIB neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesNMSU 25–39 LIB neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesNMSU 28–35 LIB neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesNMSU 32–32 LIB neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesNMSU 35–28 LIB neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesNMSU 39–25 LIB neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesNMSU 42–21 LIB neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesNMSU 11–46 LIB neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesNMSU 14–42 LIB neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesNMSU 18–39 LIB neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesNMSU 21–35 LIB neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesNMSU 25–32 LIB neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesNMSU 28–28 LIB neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesNMSU 32–25 LIB neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesNMSU 35–21 LIB neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesNMSU 39–18 LIB neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesNMSU 7–42 LIB neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesNMSU 11–39 LIB neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesNMSU 14–35 LIB neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesNMSU 18–32 LIB neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesNMSU 21–28 LIB neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesNMSU 25–25 LIB neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesNMSU 28–21 LIB neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesNMSU 32–18 LIB neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesNMSU 35–14 LIB neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesNMSU 4–39 LIB neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesNMSU 7–35 LIB neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesNMSU 11–32 LIB neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesNMSU 14–28 LIB neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesNMSU 18–25 LIB neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesNMSU 21–21 LIB neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesNMSU 25–18 LIB neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesNMSU 28–14 LIB neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesNMSU 32–11 LIB neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesNMSU 0–35 LIB neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesNMSU 4–32 LIB neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesNMSU 7–28 LIB neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesNMSU 11–25 LIB neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesNMSU 14–21 LIB neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesNMSU 18–18 LIB neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesNMSU 21–14 LIB neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesNMSU 25–11 LIB neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesNMSU 28–7 LIB neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)NMSU 0–28 LIB neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesNMSU 4–25 LIB neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesNMSU 7–21 LIB neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesNMSU 11–18 LIB neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesNMSU 14–14 LIB neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesNMSU 18–11 LIB neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesNMSU 21–7 LIB neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesNMSU 25–4 LIB neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomes70635649423528totalLIB +35LIB +21LIB +7NMSU +7NMSU +21margin →