CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 4 · Thu Sep 24 · 7:30 PM ET
Forecast win probability
LIB 43.9%56.1% CCU
Projected margin
CCU by 1.7
Projected total
50
80% outcome range
LIB 18 to CCU 21
Win probability
CCU 56.1%
FinalLIB 34 · CCU 17model had +1.7, off by 18.7

Current team profiles

Liberty
Coastal Carolina

When Liberty has the ball

Passing

LIB offense
Higher-ranked profile
LIB offense
#47
CCU defense
#112
EPA comparison
0.28
#47
0.31
#112
Pass EPA

Rushing

LIB offense
Higher-ranked profile
LIB offense
#55
CCU defense
#73
EPA comparison
0.14
#55
0.05
#73
Rush EPA

Drive success

LIB offense
Higher-ranked profile
LIB offense
#30
CCU defense
#114
Success rates
48%
#30
45%
#114
Success rate
More metrics
0.17
#63
0.11
#89
EPA / play
1.13
#119
1.10
#23
Explosiveness
14%
#56
16%
#68
Havoc

When Coastal Carolina has the ball

Passing

LIB defense
Higher-ranked profile
LIB defense
#15
CCU offense
#78
EPA comparison
-0.04
#15
0.19
#78
Pass EPA

Rushing

CCU offense
Higher-ranked profile
LIB defense
#73
CCU offense
#72
EPA comparison
0.05
#73
0.10
#72
Rush EPA

Drive success

LIB defense
Higher-ranked profile
LIB defense
#13
CCU offense
#111
Success rates
34%
#13
39%
#111
Success rate
More metrics
-0.04
#28
0.12
#82
EPA / play
1.34
#115
1.33
#24
Explosiveness
19%
#24
19%
#130
Havoc

Current key players

Liberty
QBDeshawn Purdie
936 yds · 7 TD · 0 INT
75.9106/729
RBKam Davis
457 yds · 3 TD · 7.1 YPC
85.138/1044
WRMakai Jackson
19 rec · 469 yds · 5 TD
80.848/2069
SIzaiah Guy
8 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
85.3
Coverage
69.2
Targets allowed
5
Rec allowed
2
Yards allowed
16
Passer rating allowed
48.8
Missed tackles
1
78.779/2969
CBElijah Hopkins
8 tkl · 0 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
73.4
Coverage
74.8
Targets allowed
14
Rec allowed
7
Yards allowed
71
Passer rating allowed
58.9
Missed tackles
3
75.6170/2969
SJayden Davis
6 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
54.2
Coverage
76.3
Targets allowed
2
Rec allowed
1
Yards allowed
7
Passer rating allowed
18.8
Missed tackles
2
71.9330/2969
Availability reports · 4
  • J. Marshall · RBout · 2026-10-08

    Marshall is hampered by leg injury, and he will be idle for the remainder of the season.

  • Bo Burklow · TEQues. · 2026-10-09

    Burklow is hampered with an undisclosed injury, and it has yet to be determined if he will play against the Kennesaw State on Thursday, Octo

  • Caleb Ryan · TEQues. · 2026-10-09

    Ryan is nursing an undisclosed injury, and it is unknown if he will play against Kennesaw State on Thursday, October 22nd.

  • Cam Wood · RBQues. · 2026-10-09

    Wood is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it has yet to be determined if he will face the Kennesaw State on Thursday, October 22nd.

Coastal Carolina
QBDeuce Bailey
1267 yds · 12 TD · 2 INT
75.2112/729
SZeke Marshall
1 tkl · 0 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
55.1
Coverage
60.0
Targets allowed
1
Rec allowed
0
Yards allowed
0
Passer rating allowed
0.0
Missed tackles
0
91.45/2969
WRNathan Schuessler
1 rec · 6 yds · 0 TD
77.284/2069
DBJesse Powell II
19 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
82.3
Coverage
70.9
Targets allowed
6
Rec allowed
4
Yards allowed
38
Passer rating allowed
84.0
Missed tackles
0
76.7140/2969
WRColton Hinton
10 rec · 220 yds · 4 TD
76.4102/2069
CBTravis Roman
19 tkl · 3 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
72.3
Coverage
74.1
Targets allowed
16
Rec allowed
9
Yards allowed
107
Passer rating allowed
50.8
Missed tackles
4
73.4258/2969
Availability reports · 2
  • Colton Hinton · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Hinton is bothered by an undisclosed injury, and it is unknown if he will play against Mountaineers on Friday, October 16th.

  • K. Johnson · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Johnson is bothered by an undisclosed injury, and it is unknown if he will play against Mountaineers on Friday, October 16th.

Position units

Position-unit comparison

LIB
CCU
vs
Offense
75.9
#79 of 138
QB
75.2
#82 of 138
81.0
#31 of 138
RB
71.1
#111 of 138
69.8
#84 of 138
WR
73.4
#46 of 138
69.8
#67 of 138
TE
60.3
#117 of 138
72.2
#32 of 138
OL
67.2
#76 of 138
Defense
70.0
#106 of 138
DL
71.9
#88 of 138
66.2
#130 of 138
LB
68.4
#120 of 138
73.2
#54 of 138
DB
75.8
#25 of 138
Common opponents

Common opponents

Liberty
opponent
Coastal Carolina
A+16.0
DEL#119
-8.0A
A-7.0
JMU#51
-23.9A