AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 4 · Thu Sep 24 · 11:30 PM
#106Away
Liberty
0-0 · AVR 37.8
29p
#126Home
Coastal Carolina
0-0 · AVR 29.6
22p
LIB 67%33% CCU
Spread
LIB -6.7
Total
50
Moneyline
LIB-205CCU+205
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← LIB advantageevenCCU advantage →
LIB throw
CCU coverage #123CCU pass rush #36
even
LIB run
CCU front #36CCU linebackers #129
even
CCU throw
CCU WR #42
CCU +23
CCU run
CCU +20

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Vasko
Alex Birchmeier
vs
Mitchell Toney
LT · LIB
EDGE · CCU
78.7
82.2
CCU +3
when CCU throws
Tristian Gardner
vs
Izaiah Guy
X · CCU
CB1 · LIB
74.7
76.4
dead even
when LIB runs
Kam Davis
vs
Tray Brown
RB · LIB
MLB · CCU
53.4
63.6
CCU +10
when CCU runs
Dominic Knicely
vs
Kyle Ferm
RB · CCU
MLB · LIB
52.0
60.4
LIB +8
when LIB throws
Makai Jackson
vs
Myles Woods
X · LIB
CB1 · CCU
52.6
54.5
dead even
off the edge· hunting Jackson
Daughtry Richardson
vs
Nathan Pirolli
LT · CCU
EDGE · LIB
47.2
55.3
LIB +8

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Liberty
SIzaiah Guy
76.4134/1427
LBKyle Ferm
60.4278/878
CBJamal Miles
56.7571/1427
QBEthan Vasko
56.088/308
LBDerrell Farrar
54.5396/878
RBKam Davis
53.4192/514

also out — Erwil Anthony Jr. (OL), Aaron Hester (DL)

Coastal Carolina
WRTristian Gardner
74.734/777
LBTray Brown
63.6230/878
DBMyles Woods
54.5635/1427
WRClayton Coppock Jr.
53.9195/777
QBTrever Jackson
52.9125/308
RBDominic Knicely
52.0233/514

Common opponents

2 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Liberty
opponent
Coastal Carolina
away+1.2
Delaware#102
-8.1away
away-18.4
James Madison#55
-19.8away

Projected margin

80% between -24 and 11
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKLIB +6.795% interval: -30.6 to 17.280% interval: -24.1 to 10.7-24+11LIB wins 67%CCU wins 33%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ LIB 28–21 CCUCCU 18–53 LIB neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesCCU 21–49 LIB neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesCCU 25–46 LIB neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesCCU 28–42 LIB neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesCCU 32–39 LIB neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesCCU 35–35 LIB neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesCCU 39–32 LIB neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesCCU 42–28 LIB neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesCCU 46–25 LIB neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesCCU 14–49 LIB neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesCCU 18–46 LIB neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesCCU 21–42 LIB neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesCCU 25–39 LIB neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesCCU 28–35 LIB neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesCCU 32–32 LIB neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesCCU 35–28 LIB neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesCCU 39–25 LIB neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesCCU 42–21 LIB neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesCCU 11–46 LIB neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesCCU 14–42 LIB neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesCCU 18–39 LIB neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesCCU 21–35 LIB neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesCCU 25–32 LIB neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesCCU 28–28 LIB neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesCCU 32–25 LIB neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesCCU 35–21 LIB neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesCCU 39–18 LIB neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesCCU 7–42 LIB neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesCCU 11–39 LIB neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesCCU 14–35 LIB neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesCCU 18–32 LIB neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesCCU 21–28 LIB neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesCCU 25–25 LIB neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesCCU 28–21 LIB neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesCCU 32–18 LIB neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesCCU 35–14 LIB neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesCCU 4–39 LIB neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesCCU 7–35 LIB neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesCCU 11–32 LIB neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesCCU 14–28 LIB neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesCCU 18–25 LIB neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesCCU 21–21 LIB neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesCCU 25–18 LIB neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesCCU 28–14 LIB neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesCCU 32–11 LIB neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesCCU 0–35 LIB neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesCCU 4–32 LIB neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesCCU 7–28 LIB neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesCCU 11–25 LIB neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesCCU 14–21 LIB neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesCCU 18–18 LIB neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesCCU 21–14 LIB neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesCCU 25–11 LIB neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesCCU 28–7 LIB neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)CCU 0–28 LIB neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesCCU 4–25 LIB neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesCCU 7–21 LIB neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesCCU 11–18 LIB neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesCCU 14–14 LIB neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesCCU 18–11 LIB neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesCCU 21–7 LIB neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesCCU 25–4 LIB neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomes70635649423528totalLIB +35LIB +21LIB +7CCU +7CCU +21margin →