AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 9 · Sat Oct 31 · 7:30 PM
#109Away
Florida International
0-0 · AVR 36.2
23p
#106Home
Liberty
0-0 · AVR 37.8
28p
FIU 34%66% LIB
Spread
LIB -5.7
Total
51
Moneyline
FIU+191LIB-191
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← FIU advantageevenLIB advantage →
FIU throw
FIU protection #99
FIU +18
FIU run
FIU +6
LIB throw
FIU +10
LIB run
even

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Vasko
Alex Birchmeier
vs
Dante Anderson
LT · LIB
EDGE · FIU
78.7
74.1
LIB +5
when LIB throws
Makai Jackson
vs
Shamir Sterlin
X · LIB
CB1 · FIU
52.6
81.3
FIU +29
when FIU throws
Maguire Anderson
vs
Izaiah Guy
X · FIU
CB1 · LIB
51.3
76.4
LIB +25
when LIB runs
Kam Davis
vs
Brayshawn Littlejohn
RB · LIB
MLB · FIU
53.4
70.1
FIU +17
when FIU runs
Anthony Carrie
vs
Kyle Ferm
RB · FIU
MLB · LIB
57.2
60.4
LIB +3
over the middle
LaKelsey Johnson Jr.
vs
Wesley Miller
TE · LIB
FS · FIU
52.0
51.1
dead even

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Florida International
DBShamir Sterlin
81.379/1427
DBJai-Ayviauynn Celestine
70.2233/1427
LBBrayshawn Littlejohn
70.1144/878
QBJJ Kohl
68.047/308
DBLawrence Johnson
61.5445/1427
RBAnthony Carrie
57.2136/514
Liberty
SIzaiah Guy
76.4134/1427
LBKyle Ferm
60.4278/878
CBJamal Miles
56.7571/1427
QBEthan Vasko
56.088/308
LBDerrell Farrar
54.5396/878
RBKam Davis
53.4192/514

also out — Erwil Anthony Jr. (OL), Aaron Hester (DL)

Common opponents

6 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Florida International
opponent
Liberty
away-2.0
Delaware#102
+1.2away
away-0.7
Kennesaw State#105
+2.5away
home+6.9
Middle Tennessee#124
+10.1home
home+13.2
Sam Houston#137
+16.4home
home+10.4
New Mexico State#130
+8.6away
home+8.8
Missouri State#125
+7.0away

Projected margin

80% between -12 and 23
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKLIB +5.795% interval: -18.2 to 29.680% interval: -11.7 to 23.1-12+23FIU wins 34%LIB wins 66%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ LIB 28–21 FIULIB 25–46 FIU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesLIB 28–42 FIU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesLIB 32–39 FIU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesLIB 35–35 FIU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesLIB 39–32 FIU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesLIB 42–28 FIU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesLIB 46–25 FIU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesLIB 49–21 FIU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesLIB 53–18 FIU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesLIB 21–42 FIU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesLIB 25–39 FIU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesLIB 28–35 FIU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesLIB 32–32 FIU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesLIB 35–28 FIU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesLIB 39–25 FIU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesLIB 42–21 FIU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesLIB 46–18 FIU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesLIB 49–14 FIU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesLIB 18–39 FIU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesLIB 21–35 FIU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesLIB 25–32 FIU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesLIB 28–28 FIU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesLIB 32–25 FIU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesLIB 35–21 FIU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesLIB 39–18 FIU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesLIB 42–14 FIU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesLIB 46–11 FIU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesLIB 14–35 FIU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesLIB 18–32 FIU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesLIB 21–28 FIU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesLIB 25–25 FIU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesLIB 28–21 FIU neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesLIB 32–18 FIU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesLIB 35–14 FIU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesLIB 39–11 FIU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesLIB 42–7 FIU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesLIB 11–32 FIU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesLIB 14–28 FIU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesLIB 18–25 FIU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesLIB 21–21 FIU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesLIB 25–18 FIU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesLIB 28–14 FIU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesLIB 32–11 FIU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesLIB 35–7 FIU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesLIB 39–4 FIU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesLIB 7–28 FIU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesLIB 11–25 FIU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesLIB 14–21 FIU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesLIB 18–18 FIU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesLIB 21–14 FIU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesLIB 25–11 FIU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesLIB 28–7 FIU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesLIB 32–4 FIU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesLIB 35–0 FIU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesLIB 4–25 FIU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesLIB 7–21 FIU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesLIB 11–18 FIU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesLIB 14–14 FIU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesLIB 18–11 FIU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesLIB 21–7 FIU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesLIB 25–4 FIU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesLIB 28–0 FIU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)70635649423528totalFIU +21FIU +7LIB +7LIB +21LIB +35margin →