AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 3 · Sat Sep 19 · 8:00 PM
#136Away
Ball State
0-0 · AVR 22.6
18p
#106Home
Liberty
0-0 · AVR 37.8
33p
BALL 16%84% LIB
Spread
LIB -14.9
Total
51
Moneyline
BALL+531LIB-531
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← BALL advantageevenLIB advantage →
BALL throw
LIB +8
BALL run
LIB +16
LIB throw
LIB +32
LIB run
LIB +33

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Vasko
Alex Birchmeier
vs
Maverick Gracio
LT · LIB
EDGE · BALL
78.7
47.5
LIB +31
when BALL throws
Jabari Smith Jr.
vs
Izaiah Guy
X · BALL
CB1 · LIB
47.0
76.4
LIB +29
when LIB runs
Kam Davis
vs
Jared Badie
RB · LIB
MLB · BALL
53.4
60.1
BALL +7
when BALL runs
Johnny Thompson Jr.
vs
Kyle Ferm
RB · BALL
MLB · LIB
49.3
60.4
LIB +11
when LIB throws
Makai Jackson
vs
Quentavius Scandrett
X · LIB
CB1 · BALL
52.6
55.4
dead even
over the middle
LaKelsey Johnson Jr.
vs
Derek Fields
TE · LIB
FS · BALL
52.0
33.1
LIB +19

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Ball State
LBJared Badie
60.1282/878
DBQuentavius Scandrett
55.4609/1427
DBWillizhuan Yates
53.6666/1427
QBKeldric Luster
53.0122/308
RBJohnny Thompson Jr.
49.3310/514
WRJabari Smith Jr.
47.0410/777
Liberty
SIzaiah Guy
76.4134/1427
LBKyle Ferm
60.4278/878
CBJamal Miles
56.7571/1427
QBEthan Vasko
56.088/308
LBDerrell Farrar
54.5396/878
RBKam Davis
53.4192/514

also out — Erwil Anthony Jr. (OL), Aaron Hester (DL)

Projected margin

80% between -3 and 32
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKLIB +14.995% interval: -9 to 38.880% interval: -2.5 to 32.3-2+32BALL wins 16%LIB wins 84%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ LIB 32–18 BALLLIB 28–42 BALL neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesLIB 32–39 BALL neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesLIB 35–35 BALL neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesLIB 39–32 BALL neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesLIB 42–28 BALL neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesLIB 46–25 BALL neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesLIB 49–21 BALL neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesLIB 53–18 BALL neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesLIB 56–14 BALL neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesLIB 25–39 BALL neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesLIB 28–35 BALL neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesLIB 32–32 BALL neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesLIB 35–28 BALL neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesLIB 39–25 BALL neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesLIB 42–21 BALL neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesLIB 46–18 BALL neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesLIB 49–14 BALL neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesLIB 53–11 BALL neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesLIB 21–35 BALL neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesLIB 25–32 BALL neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesLIB 28–28 BALL neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesLIB 32–25 BALL neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesLIB 35–21 BALL neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesLIB 39–18 BALL neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesLIB 42–14 BALL neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesLIB 46–11 BALL neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesLIB 49–7 BALL neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesLIB 18–32 BALL neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesLIB 21–28 BALL neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesLIB 25–25 BALL neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesLIB 28–21 BALL neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesLIB 32–18 BALL neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesLIB 35–14 BALL neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesLIB 39–11 BALL neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesLIB 42–7 BALL neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesLIB 46–4 BALL neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesLIB 14–28 BALL neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesLIB 18–25 BALL neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesLIB 21–21 BALL neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesLIB 25–18 BALL neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesLIB 28–14 BALL neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesLIB 32–11 BALL neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesLIB 35–7 BALL neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesLIB 39–4 BALL neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesLIB 42–0 BALL neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesLIB 11–25 BALL neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesLIB 14–21 BALL neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesLIB 18–18 BALL neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesLIB 21–14 BALL neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesLIB 25–11 BALL neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesLIB 28–7 BALL neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesLIB 32–4 BALL neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesLIB 35–0 BALL neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)LIB 7–21 BALL neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesLIB 11–18 BALL neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesLIB 14–14 BALL neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesLIB 18–11 BALL neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesLIB 21–7 BALL neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesLIB 25–4 BALL neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesLIB 28–0 BALL neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)70635649423528totalBALL +14PKLIB +14LIB +28LIB +42margin →