AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 6 · Thu Oct 8 · 11:00 PM
#137Away
Sam Houston
0-0 · AVR 21.9
18p
#106Home
Liberty
0-0 · AVR 37.8
35p
SHSU 13%87% LIB
Spread
LIB -16.4
Total
53
Moneyline
SHSU+646LIB-646
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← SHSU advantageevenLIB advantage →
SHSU throw
LIB +21
SHSU run
even
LIB throw
LIB +35
LIB run
LIB +29

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Vasko
Alex Birchmeier
vs
Dylan Frazier
LT · LIB
EDGE · SHSU
78.7
69.5
LIB +9
when SHSU throws
Chris Reed
vs
Izaiah Guy
X · SHSU
CB1 · LIB
43.4
76.4
LIB +33
when SHSU runs
Landan Brown
vs
Kyle Ferm
RB · SHSU
MLB · LIB
57.0
60.4
LIB +3
when LIB runs
Kam Davis
vs
Dean Ford
RB · LIB
MLB · SHSU
53.4
53.9
dead even
when LIB throws
Makai Jackson
vs
Tyler Bailey
X · LIB
CB1 · SHSU
52.6
41.3
LIB +11
over the middle
Max Whisner
vs
Ronald Moore Jr.
TE · SHSU
FS · LIB
37.2
50.8
LIB +14

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Sam Houston
RBLandan Brown
57.0141/514
LBDean Ford
53.9406/878
LBEli Wallace
50.0482/878
WRChris Reed
43.4511/777
QBLandyn Locke
42.0257/308
STyler Bailey
41.3998/1427
Liberty
SIzaiah Guy
76.4134/1427
LBKyle Ferm
60.4278/878
CBJamal Miles
56.7571/1427
QBEthan Vasko
56.088/308
LBDerrell Farrar
54.5396/878
RBKam Davis
53.4192/514

also out — Erwil Anthony Jr. (OL), Aaron Hester (DL)

Common opponents

6 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Sam Houston
opponent
Liberty
away-13.2
Florida International#109
+5.7home
away-6.9
Missouri State#125
+7.0away
home-16.4
Western Kentucky#75
-2.5home
home-3.8
Middle Tennessee#124
+10.1home
home-6.4
Kennesaw State#105
+2.5away
home-0.2
New Mexico State#130
+8.6away

Projected margin

80% between -1 and 34
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKLIB +16.495% interval: -7.5 to 40.380% interval: -1 to 33.8-1+34SHSU wins 13%LIB wins 87%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ LIB 35–21 SHSULIB 32–46 SHSU neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesLIB 35–42 SHSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesLIB 39–39 SHSU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesLIB 42–35 SHSU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesLIB 46–32 SHSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesLIB 49–28 SHSU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesLIB 53–25 SHSU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesLIB 56–21 SHSU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesLIB 60–18 SHSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesLIB 28–42 SHSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesLIB 32–39 SHSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesLIB 35–35 SHSU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesLIB 39–32 SHSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesLIB 42–28 SHSU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesLIB 46–25 SHSU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesLIB 49–21 SHSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesLIB 53–18 SHSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesLIB 56–14 SHSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesLIB 25–39 SHSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesLIB 28–35 SHSU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesLIB 32–32 SHSU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesLIB 35–28 SHSU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesLIB 39–25 SHSU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesLIB 42–21 SHSU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesLIB 46–18 SHSU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesLIB 49–14 SHSU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesLIB 53–11 SHSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesLIB 21–35 SHSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesLIB 25–32 SHSU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesLIB 28–28 SHSU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesLIB 32–25 SHSU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesLIB 35–21 SHSU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesLIB 39–18 SHSU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesLIB 42–14 SHSU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesLIB 46–11 SHSU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesLIB 49–7 SHSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesLIB 18–32 SHSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesLIB 21–28 SHSU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesLIB 25–25 SHSU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesLIB 28–21 SHSU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesLIB 32–18 SHSU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesLIB 35–14 SHSU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesLIB 39–11 SHSU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesLIB 42–7 SHSU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesLIB 46–4 SHSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesLIB 14–28 SHSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesLIB 18–25 SHSU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesLIB 21–21 SHSU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesLIB 25–18 SHSU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesLIB 28–14 SHSU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesLIB 32–11 SHSU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesLIB 35–7 SHSU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesLIB 39–4 SHSU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesLIB 42–0 SHSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesLIB 11–25 SHSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesLIB 14–21 SHSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesLIB 18–18 SHSU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesLIB 21–14 SHSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesLIB 25–11 SHSU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesLIB 28–7 SHSU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesLIB 32–4 SHSU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesLIB 35–0 SHSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)77706356494235totalSHSU +14PKLIB +14LIB +28LIB +42margin →