AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 5 · Fri Oct 2 · 11:00 PM
#106Away
Liberty
0-0 · AVR 37.8
27p
#102Home
Delaware
0-0 · AVR 39.0
26p
LIB 52%48% DEL
Spread
LIB -1.2
Total
53
Moneyline
LIB-110DEL+110
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← LIB advantageevenDEL advantage →
LIB throw
LIB +6
LIB run
DEL +11
DEL throw
DEL QB #6DEL protection #64
DEL +45
DEL run
DEL +38

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Vasko
Alex Birchmeier
vs
Trace Scott III
LT · LIB
EDGE · DEL
78.7
72.8
LIB +6
when DEL throws
Sean Wilson
vs
Izaiah Guy
X · DEL
CB1 · LIB
68.2
76.4
LIB +8
when LIB runs
Kam Davis
vs
Gavin Moul
RB · LIB
MLB · DEL
53.4
80.0
DEL +27
when DEL runs
Jo Silver
vs
Kyle Ferm
RB · DEL
MLB · LIB
66.9
60.4
DEL +7
when LIB throws
Makai Jackson
vs
KT Seay
X · LIB
CB1 · DEL
52.6
64.1
DEL +11
off the edge· hunting Minicucci
Steven Demboski
vs
Nathan Pirolli
LT · DEL
EDGE · LIB
50.6
55.3
LIB +5

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Liberty
SIzaiah Guy
76.4134/1427
LBKyle Ferm
60.4278/878
CBJamal Miles
56.7571/1427
QBEthan Vasko
56.088/308
LBDerrell Farrar
54.5396/878
RBKam Davis
53.4192/514

also out — Erwil Anthony Jr. (OL), Aaron Hester (DL)

Delaware
QBNick Minicucci
88.66/308
LBGavin Moul
80.055/878
LBBlake Matthews
68.7165/878
WRSean Wilson
68.264/777
RBJo Silver
66.969/514
SKT Seay
64.1383/1427

Common opponents

7 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Liberty
opponent
Delaware
home+10.1
Middle Tennessee#124
+1.4away
home-2.5
Western Kentucky#75
-11.2away
away+2.5
Kennesaw State#105
-1.2away
home+5.7
Florida International#109
+2.0home
away+8.6
New Mexico State#130
+5.0away
away+6.7
Coastal Carolina#126
+8.1home
away+7.0
Missouri State#125
+8.3home

Projected margin

80% between -19 and 16
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKLIB +1.295% interval: -25.1 to 22.780% interval: -18.5 to 16.2-18+16LIB wins 52%DEL wins 48%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ DEL 28–28 LIBDEL 25–53 LIB neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesDEL 28–49 LIB neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesDEL 32–46 LIB neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesDEL 35–42 LIB neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesDEL 39–39 LIB neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesDEL 42–35 LIB neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesDEL 46–32 LIB neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesDEL 49–28 LIB neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesDEL 53–25 LIB neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesDEL 21–49 LIB neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesDEL 25–46 LIB neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesDEL 28–42 LIB neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesDEL 32–39 LIB neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesDEL 35–35 LIB neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesDEL 39–32 LIB neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesDEL 42–28 LIB neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesDEL 46–25 LIB neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesDEL 49–21 LIB neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesDEL 18–46 LIB neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesDEL 21–42 LIB neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesDEL 25–39 LIB neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesDEL 28–35 LIB neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesDEL 32–32 LIB neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesDEL 35–28 LIB neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesDEL 39–25 LIB neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesDEL 42–21 LIB neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesDEL 46–18 LIB neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesDEL 14–42 LIB neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesDEL 18–39 LIB neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesDEL 21–35 LIB neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesDEL 25–32 LIB neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesDEL 28–28 LIB neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesDEL 32–25 LIB neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesDEL 35–21 LIB neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesDEL 39–18 LIB neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesDEL 42–14 LIB neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesDEL 11–39 LIB neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesDEL 14–35 LIB neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesDEL 18–32 LIB neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesDEL 21–28 LIB neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesDEL 25–25 LIB neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesDEL 28–21 LIB neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesDEL 32–18 LIB neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesDEL 35–14 LIB neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesDEL 39–11 LIB neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesDEL 7–35 LIB neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesDEL 11–32 LIB neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesDEL 14–28 LIB neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesDEL 18–25 LIB neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesDEL 21–21 LIB neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesDEL 25–18 LIB neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesDEL 28–14 LIB neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesDEL 32–11 LIB neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesDEL 35–7 LIB neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesDEL 4–32 LIB neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesDEL 7–28 LIB neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesDEL 11–25 LIB neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesDEL 14–21 LIB neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesDEL 18–18 LIB neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesDEL 21–14 LIB neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesDEL 25–11 LIB neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesDEL 28–7 LIB neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesDEL 32–4 LIB neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomes77706356494235totalLIB +28LIB +14PKDEL +14DEL +28margin →