AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 12 · Sat Nov 21 · 5:00 AM
#75Away
Western Kentucky
0-0 · AVR 47.8
27p
#106Home
Liberty
0-0 · AVR 37.8
25p
WKU 56%44% LIB
Spread
WKU -2.5
Total
52
Moneyline
WKU-129LIB+129
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← WKU advantageevenLIB advantage →
WKU throw
WKU protection #118
WKU +14
WKU run
even
LIB throw
WKU pass rush #101
WKU +12
LIB run
LIB +26

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Vasko
Alex Birchmeier
vs
Zeiqui Lawton
LT · LIB
EDGE · WKU
78.7
61.1
LIB +18
when LIB throws
Makai Jackson
vs
Jaylen Lewis
X · LIB
CB1 · WKU
52.6
87.0
WKU +34
when WKU throws
K.D. Hutchinson
vs
Izaiah Guy
X · WKU
CB1 · LIB
57.8
76.4
LIB +19
over the middle
LaKelsey Johnson Jr.
vs
Lataj Wright
TE · LIB
FS · WKU
52.0
71.4
WKU +19
when WKU runs
Ajay Allen
vs
Kyle Ferm
RB · WKU
MLB · LIB
56.8
60.4
LIB +4
when LIB runs
Kam Davis
vs
Joshua Mensah
RB · LIB
MLB · WKU
53.4
58.1
WKU +5

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Western Kentucky
DBJaylen Lewis
87.028/1427
DBDave Herard
82.666/1427
DBXavion Griffin
71.8196/1427
QBRodney Tisdale Jr.
62.961/308
TEGriffin Reimer
58.168/287
LBJoshua Mensah
58.1332/878
Liberty
SIzaiah Guy
76.4134/1427
LBKyle Ferm
60.4278/878
CBJamal Miles
56.7571/1427
QBEthan Vasko
56.088/308
LBDerrell Farrar
54.5396/878
RBKam Davis
53.4192/514

also out — Erwil Anthony Jr. (OL), Aaron Hester (DL)

Common opponents

6 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Western Kentucky
opponent
Liberty
home+11.2
Delaware#102
+1.2away
home+12.5
Kennesaw State#105
+2.5away
home+16.9
Missouri State#125
+7.0away
away+13.6
New Mexico State#130
+8.6away
away+16.4
Sam Houston#137
+16.4home
away+10.1
Middle Tennessee#124
+10.1home

Projected margin

80% between -20 and 15
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKWKU +2.595% interval: -26.4 to 21.480% interval: -19.9 to 14.9-20+15WKU wins 56%LIB wins 44%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ LIB 25–25 WKULIB 21–49 WKU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesLIB 25–46 WKU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesLIB 28–42 WKU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesLIB 32–39 WKU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesLIB 35–35 WKU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesLIB 39–32 WKU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesLIB 42–28 WKU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesLIB 46–25 WKU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesLIB 49–21 WKU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesLIB 18–46 WKU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesLIB 21–42 WKU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesLIB 25–39 WKU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesLIB 28–35 WKU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesLIB 32–32 WKU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesLIB 35–28 WKU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesLIB 39–25 WKU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesLIB 42–21 WKU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesLIB 46–18 WKU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesLIB 14–42 WKU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesLIB 18–39 WKU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesLIB 21–35 WKU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesLIB 25–32 WKU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesLIB 28–28 WKU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesLIB 32–25 WKU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesLIB 35–21 WKU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesLIB 39–18 WKU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesLIB 42–14 WKU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesLIB 11–39 WKU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesLIB 14–35 WKU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesLIB 18–32 WKU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesLIB 21–28 WKU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesLIB 25–25 WKU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesLIB 28–21 WKU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesLIB 32–18 WKU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesLIB 35–14 WKU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesLIB 39–11 WKU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesLIB 7–35 WKU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesLIB 11–32 WKU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesLIB 14–28 WKU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesLIB 18–25 WKU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesLIB 21–21 WKU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesLIB 25–18 WKU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesLIB 28–14 WKU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesLIB 32–11 WKU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesLIB 35–7 WKU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesLIB 4–32 WKU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesLIB 7–28 WKU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesLIB 11–25 WKU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesLIB 14–21 WKU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesLIB 18–18 WKU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesLIB 21–14 WKU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesLIB 25–11 WKU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesLIB 28–7 WKU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesLIB 32–4 WKU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesLIB 0–28 WKU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesLIB 4–25 WKU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesLIB 7–21 WKU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesLIB 11–18 WKU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesLIB 14–14 WKU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesLIB 18–11 WKU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesLIB 21–7 WKU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesLIB 25–4 WKU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesLIB 28–0 WKU neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomes70635649423528totalWKU +28WKU +14PKLIB +14LIB +28margin →