CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 11 · Sat Nov 14 · 3:30 PM ET
#150Away
Middle Tennessee
2-3 · AVR 45.2
17p
#77Home
Liberty
5-1 · AVR 58.2
31p
Forecast win probability
MTSU 16.4%83.6% LIB
Projected margin
LIB by 15.3
Projected total
50
80% outcome range
MTSU 3 to LIB 34
Win probability
LIB 83.6%

Current team profiles

Middle Tennessee
Liberty

When Middle Tennessee has the ball

Passing

LIB defense
Higher-ranked profile
MTSU offense
#88
LIB defense
#15
EPA comparison
0.14
#88
-0.04
#15
Pass EPA

Rushing

LIB defense
Higher-ranked profile
MTSU offense
#85
LIB defense
#73
EPA comparison
0.07
#85
0.05
#73
Rush EPA

Drive success

LIB defense
Higher-ranked profile
MTSU offense
#118
LIB defense
#13
Success rates
39%
#118
34%
#13
Success rate
More metrics
0.10
#90
-0.04
#28
EPA / play
1.20
#91
1.34
#115
Explosiveness
14%
#67
19%
#24
Havoc

When Liberty has the ball

Passing

LIB offense
Higher-ranked profile
MTSU defense
#84
LIB offense
#47
EPA comparison
0.19
#84
0.28
#47
Pass EPA

Rushing

LIB offense
Higher-ranked profile
MTSU defense
#132
LIB offense
#55
EPA comparison
0.24
#132
0.14
#55
Rush EPA

Drive success

LIB offense
Higher-ranked profile
MTSU defense
#135
LIB offense
#30
Success rates
51%
#135
48%
#30
Success rate
More metrics
0.21
#124
0.17
#63
EPA / play
1.12
#27
1.13
#119
Explosiveness
10%
#138
14%
#56
Havoc

Current key players

Middle Tennessee
QBRoman Gagliano
913 yds · 8 TD · 1 INT
63.0241/729
WRCam'ron Lacy
31 rec · 335 yds · 4 TD
82.635/2069
CBRicky Lee
3 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
56.0
Coverage
79.0
Targets allowed
4
Rec allowed
3
Yards allowed
40
Passer rating allowed
106.3
Missed tackles
0
76.7138/2969
CBJackson Lowe
31 tkl · 3 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
58.9
Coverage
68.3
Targets allowed
24
Rec allowed
18
Yards allowed
203
Passer rating allowed
127.6
Missed tackles
6
73.7247/2969
CBJason Hardy
11 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
57.3
Coverage
73.0
Targets allowed
13
Rec allowed
6
Yards allowed
84
Passer rating allowed
35.4
Missed tackles
2
69.7464/2969
WRZiyon Butler
3 rec · 59 yds · 0 TD
67.8351/2069
Liberty
QBDeshawn Purdie
936 yds · 7 TD · 0 INT
75.9106/729
RBKam Davis
457 yds · 3 TD · 7.1 YPC
85.138/1044
WRMakai Jackson
19 rec · 469 yds · 5 TD
80.848/2069
SIzaiah Guy
8 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
85.3
Coverage
69.2
Targets allowed
5
Rec allowed
2
Yards allowed
16
Passer rating allowed
48.8
Missed tackles
1
78.779/2969
CBElijah Hopkins
8 tkl · 0 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
73.4
Coverage
74.8
Targets allowed
14
Rec allowed
7
Yards allowed
71
Passer rating allowed
58.9
Missed tackles
3
75.6170/2969
SJayden Davis
6 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
54.2
Coverage
76.3
Targets allowed
2
Rec allowed
1
Yards allowed
7
Passer rating allowed
18.8
Missed tackles
2
71.9330/2969
Availability reports · 4
  • J. Marshall · RBout · 2026-10-08

    Marshall is hampered by leg injury, and he will be idle for the remainder of the season.

  • Bo Burklow · TEQues. · 2026-10-09

    Burklow is hampered with an undisclosed injury, and it has yet to be determined if he will play against the Kennesaw State on Thursday, Octo

  • Caleb Ryan · TEQues. · 2026-10-09

    Ryan is nursing an undisclosed injury, and it is unknown if he will play against Kennesaw State on Thursday, October 22nd.

  • Cam Wood · RBQues. · 2026-10-09

    Wood is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it has yet to be determined if he will face the Kennesaw State on Thursday, October 22nd.

Position units

Position-unit comparison

MTSU
LIB
vs
Offense
63.0
#125 of 138
QB
75.9
#79 of 138
64.2
#136 of 138
RB
81.0
#31 of 138
70.9
#74 of 138
WR
69.8
#84 of 138
58.2
#131 of 138
TE
69.8
#67 of 138
63.6
#109 of 138
OL
72.2
#32 of 138
Defense
70.4
#101 of 138
DL
70.0
#106 of 138
63.6
#136 of 138
LB
66.2
#130 of 138
71.4
#76 of 138
DB
73.2
#54 of 138
Common opponents

Common opponents

Middle Tennessee
opponent
Liberty
A+2.0
SHSU#125
+32.0H
A-9.9
FIU#99
+8.1H
H-1.8
DEL#119
+16.0A
H-1.2
WKU#122
+11.4H
H-4.0
KENN#113
+3.4A
H-0.1
NMSU#120
+7.2A