AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 11 · Sat Nov 14 · 8:30 PM
#124Away
Middle Tennessee
0-0 · AVR 30.6
20p
#106Home
Liberty
0-0 · AVR 37.8
30p
MTSU 24%76% LIB
Spread
LIB -10.1
Total
50
Moneyline
MTSU+309LIB-309
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← MTSU advantageevenLIB advantage →
MTSU throw
LIB +7
MTSU run
even
LIB throw
LIB +33
LIB run
LIB +15

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Vasko
Alex Birchmeier
vs
Justin Bodford
LT · LIB
EDGE · MTSU
78.7
79.4
dead even
when LIB runs
Kam Davis
vs
Reggie Johnson
RB · LIB
MLB · MTSU
53.4
79.4
MTSU +26
when MTSU throws
AJ Jones
vs
Izaiah Guy
X · MTSU
CB1 · LIB
48.1
76.4
LIB +28
when MTSU runs
Antonio Martin
vs
Kyle Ferm
RB · MTSU
MLB · LIB
51.1
60.4
LIB +9
when LIB throws
Makai Jackson
vs
James Johnson
X · LIB
CB1 · MTSU
52.6
49.4
LIB +3
over the middle
Tayvion Galloway
vs
Ronald Moore Jr.
TE · MTSU
FS · LIB
42.5
50.8
LIB +8

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Middle Tennessee
LBReggie Johnson
79.462/878
LBKorey Smith
56.1370/878
RBAntonio Martin
51.1261/514
SJames Johnson
49.4784/1427
WRAJ Jones
48.1370/777
WRCam'ron Lacy
46.6423/777
Liberty
SIzaiah Guy
76.4134/1427
LBKyle Ferm
60.4278/878
CBJamal Miles
56.7571/1427
QBEthan Vasko
56.088/308
LBDerrell Farrar
54.5396/878
RBKam Davis
53.4192/514

also out — Erwil Anthony Jr. (OL), Aaron Hester (DL)

Common opponents

6 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Middle Tennessee
opponent
Liberty
away-6.9
Florida International#109
+5.7home
away+3.8
Sam Houston#137
+16.4home
home-10.1
Western Kentucky#75
-2.5home
home-0.1
Kennesaw State#105
+2.5away
home-1.4
Delaware#102
+1.2away
home+6.0
New Mexico State#130
+8.6away

Projected margin

80% between -7 and 28
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKLIB +10.195% interval: -13.8 to 3480% interval: -7.3 to 27.5-7+28MTSU wins 24%LIB wins 76%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ LIB 28–21 MTSULIB 25–46 MTSU neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesLIB 28–42 MTSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesLIB 32–39 MTSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesLIB 35–35 MTSU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesLIB 39–32 MTSU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesLIB 42–28 MTSU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesLIB 46–25 MTSU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesLIB 49–21 MTSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesLIB 53–18 MTSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesLIB 21–42 MTSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesLIB 25–39 MTSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesLIB 28–35 MTSU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesLIB 32–32 MTSU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesLIB 35–28 MTSU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesLIB 39–25 MTSU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesLIB 42–21 MTSU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesLIB 46–18 MTSU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesLIB 49–14 MTSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesLIB 18–39 MTSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesLIB 21–35 MTSU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesLIB 25–32 MTSU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesLIB 28–28 MTSU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesLIB 32–25 MTSU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesLIB 35–21 MTSU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesLIB 39–18 MTSU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesLIB 42–14 MTSU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesLIB 46–11 MTSU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesLIB 14–35 MTSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesLIB 18–32 MTSU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesLIB 21–28 MTSU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesLIB 25–25 MTSU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesLIB 28–21 MTSU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesLIB 32–18 MTSU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesLIB 35–14 MTSU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesLIB 39–11 MTSU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesLIB 42–7 MTSU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesLIB 11–32 MTSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesLIB 14–28 MTSU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesLIB 18–25 MTSU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesLIB 21–21 MTSU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesLIB 25–18 MTSU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesLIB 28–14 MTSU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesLIB 32–11 MTSU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesLIB 35–7 MTSU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesLIB 39–4 MTSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesLIB 7–28 MTSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesLIB 11–25 MTSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesLIB 14–21 MTSU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesLIB 18–18 MTSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesLIB 21–14 MTSU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesLIB 25–11 MTSU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesLIB 28–7 MTSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesLIB 32–4 MTSU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesLIB 35–0 MTSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesLIB 4–25 MTSU neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesLIB 7–21 MTSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesLIB 11–18 MTSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesLIB 14–14 MTSU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesLIB 18–11 MTSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesLIB 21–7 MTSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesLIB 25–4 MTSU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesLIB 28–0 MTSU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)70635649423528totalMTSU +21MTSU +7LIB +7LIB +21LIB +35margin →