AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 1 · Sat Sep 5 · 12:00 PM
#106Away
Liberty
0-0 · AVR 37.8
17p
#55Home
James Madison
0-0 · AVR 53.7
36p
LIB 10%90% JMU
Spread
JMU -18.4
Total
53
Moneyline
LIB+878JMU-878
Against the market
JMU +11.9line JMU -6.5

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← LIB advantageevenJMU advantage →
LIB throw
JMU +20
LIB run
JMU +9
JMU throw
JMU protection #122
even
JMU run
even

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Vasko
Alex Birchmeier
vs
Amar Thomas
LT · LIB
EDGE · JMU
78.7
86.0
JMU +7
when LIB throws
Makai Jackson
vs
DJ Kelly
X · LIB
CB1 · JMU
52.6
87.2
JMU +35
when LIB runs
Kam Davis
vs
Gannon Weathersby
RB · LIB
MLB · JMU
53.4
77.9
JMU +25
when JMU throws
Za'Ron Collins
vs
Izaiah Guy
X · JMU
CB1 · LIB
52.8
76.4
LIB +24
when JMU runs
George Pettaway
vs
Kyle Ferm
RB · JMU
MLB · LIB
53.5
60.4
LIB +7
over the middle
LaKelsey Johnson Jr.
vs
TJ McGill
TE · LIB
FS · JMU
52.0
57.7
JMU +6

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Liberty
SIzaiah Guy
76.4134/1427
LBKyle Ferm
60.4278/878
CBJamal Miles
56.7571/1427
QBEthan Vasko
56.088/308
LBDerrell Farrar
54.5396/878
RBKam Davis
53.4192/514

also out — Erwil Anthony Jr. (OL), Aaron Hester (DL)

James Madison
CBDJ Kelly
87.226/1427
SKJ Flowe
84.649/1427
LBGannon Weathersby
77.983/878
SJoshua Prince
69.4256/1427
LBLee Johnson
64.8219/878
LBJayden Studio
58.8316/878

Projected margin

80% between -1 and 38
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKJMU +18.4MKT95% interval: -10 to 4880% interval: -1 to 38-1+38LIB wins 10%JMU wins 90%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ JMU 39–18 LIBJMU 35–42 LIB neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesJMU 39–39 LIB neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesJMU 42–35 LIB neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesJMU 46–32 LIB neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesJMU 49–28 LIB neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesJMU 53–25 LIB neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesJMU 56–21 LIB neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesJMU 60–18 LIB neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesJMU 63–14 LIB neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesJMU 32–39 LIB neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesJMU 35–35 LIB neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesJMU 39–32 LIB neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesJMU 42–28 LIB neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesJMU 46–25 LIB neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesJMU 49–21 LIB neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesJMU 53–18 LIB neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesJMU 56–14 LIB neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesJMU 60–11 LIB neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesJMU 28–35 LIB neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesJMU 32–32 LIB neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesJMU 35–28 LIB neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesJMU 39–25 LIB neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesJMU 42–21 LIB neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesJMU 46–18 LIB neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesJMU 49–14 LIB neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesJMU 53–11 LIB neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesJMU 56–7 LIB neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesJMU 25–32 LIB neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesJMU 28–28 LIB neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesJMU 32–25 LIB neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesJMU 35–21 LIB neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesJMU 39–18 LIB neighborhood · ~3.5% of outcomesJMU 42–14 LIB neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesJMU 46–11 LIB neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesJMU 49–7 LIB neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesJMU 53–4 LIB neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesJMU 21–28 LIB neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesJMU 25–25 LIB neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesJMU 28–21 LIB neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesJMU 32–18 LIB neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesJMU 35–14 LIB neighborhood · ~3.5% of outcomesJMU 39–11 LIB neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesJMU 42–7 LIB neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesJMU 46–4 LIB neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesJMU 49–0 LIB neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesJMU 18–25 LIB neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesJMU 21–21 LIB neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesJMU 25–18 LIB neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesJMU 28–14 LIB neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesJMU 32–11 LIB neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesJMU 35–7 LIB neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesJMU 39–4 LIB neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesJMU 42–0 LIB neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)JMU 14–21 LIB neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesJMU 18–18 LIB neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesJMU 21–14 LIB neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesJMU 25–11 LIB neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesJMU 28–7 LIB neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesJMU 32–4 LIB neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesJMU 35–0 LIB neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)77706356494235totalLIB +7JMU +7JMU +21JMU +35JMU +49margin →