CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 1 · Sat Sep 5 · 12:00 PM ET
Forecast win probability
LIB 22.3%77.7% JMU
Projected margin
JMU by 12.2
Projected total
52
80% outcome range
LIB 8 to JMU 33
Win probability
JMU 77.7%
FinalLIB 13 · JMU 20model had +12.2, off by 5.2

Current team profiles

Liberty
James Madison

When Liberty has the ball

Passing

JMU defense
Higher-ranked profile
LIB offense
#47
JMU defense
#41
EPA comparison
0.28
#47
0.07
#41
Pass EPA

Rushing

JMU defense
Higher-ranked profile
LIB offense
#55
JMU defense
#22
EPA comparison
0.14
#55
-0.09
#22
Rush EPA

Drive success

JMU defense
Higher-ranked profile
LIB offense
#30
JMU defense
#22
Success rates
48%
#30
35%
#22
Success rate
More metrics
0.17
#63
-0.05
#22
EPA / play
1.13
#119
1.29
#100
Explosiveness
14%
#56
17%
#59
Havoc

When James Madison has the ball

Passing

LIB defense
Higher-ranked profile
LIB defense
#15
JMU offense
#22
EPA comparison
-0.04
#15
0.42
#22
Pass EPA

Rushing

JMU offense
Higher-ranked profile
LIB defense
#73
JMU offense
#28
EPA comparison
0.05
#73
0.21
#28
Rush EPA

Drive success

LIB defense
Higher-ranked profile
LIB defense
#13
JMU offense
#37
Success rates
34%
#13
48%
#37
Success rate
More metrics
-0.04
#28
0.29
#20
EPA / play
1.34
#115
1.24
#65
Explosiveness
19%
#24
10%
#13
Havoc

Current key players

Liberty
QBDeshawn Purdie
936 yds · 7 TD · 0 INT
75.9106/729
RBKam Davis
457 yds · 3 TD · 7.1 YPC
85.138/1044
WRMakai Jackson
19 rec · 469 yds · 5 TD
80.848/2069
SIzaiah Guy
8 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
85.3
Coverage
69.2
Targets allowed
5
Rec allowed
2
Yards allowed
16
Passer rating allowed
48.8
Missed tackles
1
78.779/2969
CBElijah Hopkins
8 tkl · 0 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
73.4
Coverage
74.8
Targets allowed
14
Rec allowed
7
Yards allowed
71
Passer rating allowed
58.9
Missed tackles
3
75.6170/2969
SJayden Davis
6 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
54.2
Coverage
76.3
Targets allowed
2
Rec allowed
1
Yards allowed
7
Passer rating allowed
18.8
Missed tackles
2
71.9330/2969
Availability reports · 4
  • J. Marshall · RBout · 2026-10-08

    Marshall is hampered by leg injury, and he will be idle for the remainder of the season.

  • Bo Burklow · TEQues. · 2026-10-09

    Burklow is hampered with an undisclosed injury, and it has yet to be determined if he will play against the Kennesaw State on Thursday, Octo

  • Caleb Ryan · TEQues. · 2026-10-09

    Ryan is nursing an undisclosed injury, and it is unknown if he will play against Kennesaw State on Thursday, October 22nd.

  • Cam Wood · RBQues. · 2026-10-09

    Wood is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it has yet to be determined if he will face the Kennesaw State on Thursday, October 22nd.

James Madison
QBArrington Maiden
111 yds · 2 TD · 0 INT
81.763/729
SJayon Harvey
34 tkl · 2 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
79.1
Coverage
79.6
Targets allowed
11
Rec allowed
6
Yards allowed
55
Passer rating allowed
98.7
Missed tackles
4
81.247/2969
LBJT Hooten
27 tkl · 4.5 TFL · 2.5 sk
Player detail
Run defense
80.6
Coverage
69.4
Pressures
8
Pass-rush snaps
39
Missed tackles
2
Forced fumbles
0
81.069/1796
WRArrion Concepcion
1 rec · 16 yds · 0 TD
79.065/2069
SD'Kwan Thomas
2 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
63.1
Coverage
68.0
Targets allowed
1
Rec allowed
1
Yards allowed
4
Passer rating allowed
83.3
Missed tackles
0
75.3184/2969
CBKen Willis
24 tkl · 2 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
65.1
Coverage
67.8
Targets allowed
21
Rec allowed
10
Yards allowed
119
Passer rating allowed
65.4
Missed tackles
5
74.9195/2969
Availability reports · 1
  • Za'Ron Collins · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Collins is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be active against Panthers on Saturday, October 17th.

Position units

Position-unit comparison

LIB
JMU
vs
Offense
75.9
#79 of 138
QB
81.7
#54 of 138
81.0
#31 of 138
RB
71.7
#107 of 138
69.8
#84 of 138
WR
74.5
#36 of 138
69.8
#67 of 138
TE
73.1
#45 of 138
72.2
#32 of 138
OL
71.7
#39 of 138
Defense
70.0
#106 of 138
DL
76.6
#39 of 138
66.2
#130 of 138
LB
75.0
#59 of 138
73.2
#54 of 138
DB
74.0
#45 of 138
Common opponents