AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 8 · Thu Oct 22 · 11:00 PM
#106Away
Liberty
0-0 · AVR 37.8
26p
#105Home
Kennesaw State
0-0 · AVR 38.1
23p
LIB 57%43% KENN
Spread
LIB -2.5
Total
49
Moneyline
LIB-132KENN+132
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← LIB advantageevenKENN advantage →
LIB throw
even
LIB run
KENN +19
KENN throw
LIB +17
KENN run
LIB +9

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Vasko
Alex Birchmeier
vs
Marcus Patterson
LT · LIB
EDGE · KENN
78.7
72.4
LIB +6
when LIB runs
Kam Davis
vs
Baron Hopson
RB · LIB
MLB · KENN
53.4
76.2
KENN +23
when KENN throws
Dylan Gary
vs
Izaiah Guy
X · KENN
CB1 · LIB
49.2
76.4
LIB +27
when LIB throws
Makai Jackson
vs
Kody Jones
X · LIB
CB1 · KENN
52.6
63.2
KENN +11
when KENN runs
Jonathan Mathis
vs
Kyle Ferm
RB · KENN
MLB · LIB
47.5
60.4
LIB +13
over the middle
LaKelsey Johnson Jr.
vs
Alexander Ford
TE · LIB
FS · KENN
52.0
50.6
dead even

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Liberty
SIzaiah Guy
76.4134/1427
LBKyle Ferm
60.4278/878
CBJamal Miles
56.7571/1427
QBEthan Vasko
56.088/308
LBDerrell Farrar
54.5396/878
RBKam Davis
53.4192/514

also out — Erwil Anthony Jr. (OL), Aaron Hester (DL)

Kennesaw State
LBBaron Hopson
76.294/878
LBDonovan Westmoreland
70.5137/878
DBKody Jones
63.2400/1427
DBTony Williams Jr.
60.3475/1427
DBIsaac Paul
57.4551/1427
WRDylan Gary
49.2333/777

Common opponents

6 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Liberty
opponent
Kennesaw State
home+10.1
Middle Tennessee#124
+0.1away
home-2.5
Western Kentucky#75
-12.5away
home+16.4
Sam Houston#137
+6.4away
home+5.7
Florida International#109
+0.7home
away+7.0
Missouri State#125
+2.0away
away+1.2
Delaware#102
+1.2home

Projected margin

80% between -20 and 15
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKLIB +2.595% interval: -26.4 to 21.480% interval: -19.9 to 14.9-20+15LIB wins 57%KENN wins 43%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ KENN 25–25 LIBKENN 21–49 LIB neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesKENN 25–46 LIB neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesKENN 28–42 LIB neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesKENN 32–39 LIB neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesKENN 35–35 LIB neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesKENN 39–32 LIB neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesKENN 42–28 LIB neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesKENN 46–25 LIB neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesKENN 49–21 LIB neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesKENN 18–46 LIB neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesKENN 21–42 LIB neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesKENN 25–39 LIB neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesKENN 28–35 LIB neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesKENN 32–32 LIB neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesKENN 35–28 LIB neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesKENN 39–25 LIB neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesKENN 42–21 LIB neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesKENN 46–18 LIB neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesKENN 14–42 LIB neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesKENN 18–39 LIB neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesKENN 21–35 LIB neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesKENN 25–32 LIB neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesKENN 28–28 LIB neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesKENN 32–25 LIB neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesKENN 35–21 LIB neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesKENN 39–18 LIB neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesKENN 42–14 LIB neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesKENN 11–39 LIB neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesKENN 14–35 LIB neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesKENN 18–32 LIB neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesKENN 21–28 LIB neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesKENN 25–25 LIB neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesKENN 28–21 LIB neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesKENN 32–18 LIB neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesKENN 35–14 LIB neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesKENN 39–11 LIB neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesKENN 7–35 LIB neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesKENN 11–32 LIB neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesKENN 14–28 LIB neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesKENN 18–25 LIB neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesKENN 21–21 LIB neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesKENN 25–18 LIB neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesKENN 28–14 LIB neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesKENN 32–11 LIB neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesKENN 35–7 LIB neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesKENN 4–32 LIB neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesKENN 7–28 LIB neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesKENN 11–25 LIB neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesKENN 14–21 LIB neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesKENN 18–18 LIB neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesKENN 21–14 LIB neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesKENN 25–11 LIB neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesKENN 28–7 LIB neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesKENN 32–4 LIB neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesKENN 0–28 LIB neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesKENN 4–25 LIB neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesKENN 7–21 LIB neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesKENN 11–18 LIB neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesKENN 14–14 LIB neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesKENN 18–11 LIB neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesKENN 21–7 LIB neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesKENN 25–4 LIB neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesKENN 28–0 LIB neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomes70635649423528totalLIB +28LIB +14PKKENN +14KENN +28margin →