AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 13 · Sat Nov 28 · 5:00 AM
#15Away
Washington
0-0 · AVR 72.3
22p
#2Home
Oregon
0-0 · AVR 85.1
35p
WASH 18%82% ORE
Spread
ORE -13.7
Total
57
Moneyline
WASH+471ORE-471
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← WASH advantageevenORE advantage →
WASH throw
WASH +7
WASH run
ORE linebackers #1
ORE +14
ORE throw
WASH pass rush #72
ORE +13
ORE run
ORE +30

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when WASH throws
Dezmen Roebuck
vs
Brandon Finney Jr.
X · WASH
CB1 · ORE
86.2
88.9
dead even
off the edge· hunting Jr.
Elishah Jackett
vs
A'Mauri Washington
LT · WASH
EDGE · ORE
82.4
81.6
dead even
when ORE runs
Jordon Davison
vs
Xe'ree Alexander
RB · ORE
MLB · WASH
79.1
81.2
dead even
when ORE throws
Jeremiah McClellan
vs
Emmanuel Karnley
X · ORE
CB1 · WASH
75.6
82.4
WASH +7
over the middle
Jamari Johnson
vs
Rylon Dillard-Allen
TE · ORE
FS · WASH
84.5
71.4
ORE +13
off the edge· hunting Moore
Iapani Laloulu
vs
Darin Conley
LT · ORE
EDGE · WASH
79.3
74.1
ORE +5

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Washington
WRDezmen Roebuck
86.212/777
QBDemond Williams Jr.
83.016/308
CBEmmanuel Karnley
82.467/1427
LBXe'ree Alexanderprobable
81.247/878
SRahshawn Clark
80.986/1427
SAlex McLaughlin
79.298/1427

also out — Washington Football Standing, Jordan Washington, Washington Huskies Running Back (RB), Former Washington football star, Ashton Jeanty (RB)

Oregon
LBTeitum Tuioti
91.97/878
LBMatayo Uiagalelei
90.610/878
DBBrandon Finney Jr.
88.917/1427
TEJamari Johnson
84.51/287
DBPeyton Woodyard
81.377/1427
QBDante Moorequestionable
79.922/308

also out — Surprise Player Standing, Brayden Platt (LB), J. Davison (RB), Tony Cumberland

Common opponents

3 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Washington
opponent
Oregon
away+7.8
Nebraska#41
+24.0home
away-5.8
USC#10
+5.4away
away+16.7
Michigan State#65
+27.9away

Projected margin

80% between -4 and 32
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKORE +13.795% interval: -10.9 to 38.380% interval: -4.2 to 31.6-4+32WASH wins 18%ORE wins 82%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ ORE 35–21 WASHORE 32–46 WASH neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesORE 35–42 WASH neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesORE 39–39 WASH neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesORE 42–35 WASH neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesORE 46–32 WASH neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesORE 49–28 WASH neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesORE 53–25 WASH neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesORE 56–21 WASH neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesORE 60–18 WASH neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesORE 28–42 WASH neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesORE 32–39 WASH neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesORE 35–35 WASH neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesORE 39–32 WASH neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesORE 42–28 WASH neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesORE 46–25 WASH neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesORE 49–21 WASH neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesORE 53–18 WASH neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesORE 56–14 WASH neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesORE 25–39 WASH neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesORE 28–35 WASH neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesORE 32–32 WASH neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesORE 35–28 WASH neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesORE 39–25 WASH neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesORE 42–21 WASH neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesORE 46–18 WASH neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesORE 49–14 WASH neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesORE 53–11 WASH neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesORE 21–35 WASH neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesORE 25–32 WASH neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesORE 28–28 WASH neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesORE 32–25 WASH neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesORE 35–21 WASH neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesORE 39–18 WASH neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesORE 42–14 WASH neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesORE 46–11 WASH neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesORE 49–7 WASH neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesORE 18–32 WASH neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesORE 21–28 WASH neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesORE 25–25 WASH neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesORE 28–21 WASH neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesORE 32–18 WASH neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesORE 35–14 WASH neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesORE 39–11 WASH neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesORE 42–7 WASH neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesORE 46–4 WASH neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesORE 14–28 WASH neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesORE 18–25 WASH neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesORE 21–21 WASH neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesORE 25–18 WASH neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesORE 28–14 WASH neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesORE 32–11 WASH neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesORE 35–7 WASH neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesORE 39–4 WASH neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesORE 42–0 WASH neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesORE 11–25 WASH neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesORE 14–21 WASH neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesORE 18–18 WASH neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesORE 21–14 WASH neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesORE 25–11 WASH neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesORE 28–7 WASH neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesORE 32–4 WASH neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesORE 35–0 WASH neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)77706356494235totalWASH +14PKORE +14ORE +28ORE +42margin →