AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 13 · Sat Nov 28 · 5:00 AM
#72Away
UConn
0-0 · AVR 48.0
31p
#119Home
Wyoming
0-0 · AVR 32.7
23p
CONN 71%29% WYO
Spread
CONN -8.2
Total
54
Moneyline
CONN-243WYO+243
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← CONN advantageevenWYO advantage →
CONN throw
WYO coverage #68WYO pass rush #138
CONN +21
CONN run
CONN +53
WYO throw
CONN coverage #115CONN pass rush #12
CONN +50
WYO run
WYO line #121WYO backs #71
CONN +49

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when WYO runs
Diore Hubbard
vs
K'Von Sherman
RB · WYO
MLB · CONN
57.2
93.3
CONN +36
when CONN throws
Ryder Treadway
vs
Ian Bell
X · CONN
CB1 · WYO
57.0
77.1
WYO +20
when CONN runs
Kenji Christian
vs
Anthony Beavers
RB · CONN
MLB · WYO
62.7
65.7
WYO +3
off the edge· hunting Osborne
Ty Chan
vs
Jayden Williams
LT · CONN
EDGE · WYO
77.4
43.0
CONN +34
when WYO throws
Charlie Coenen
vs
Jayden Davis
X · WYO
CB1 · CONN
41.3
71.1
CONN +30
off the edge· hunting Sims
Nathan Geiger
vs
Esean Carter
LT · WYO
EDGE · CONN
17.6
87.3
CONN +70

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
UConn
LBK'Von Sherman
93.35/878
DBJayden Davis
71.1209/1427
RBKenji Christian
62.788/514
WRRyder Treadway
57.0143/777
QBKalieb Osborne
56.585/308
WRShamar Porter
55.1174/777
Wyoming
CBIan Bell
77.1123/1427
SDesman Hearns
70.9212/1427
LBAnthony Beavers
65.7201/878
DBDavid Leonard
58.4524/1427
RBDiore Hubbard
57.2137/514
QBLandon Sims
42.9244/308

also out — T. Hasselbeck (QB), T. Nystrom (WR)

Projected margin

80% between -26 and 10
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKCONN +8.295% interval: -32.8 to 16.480% interval: -26.1 to 9.7-26+10CONN wins 71%WYO wins 29%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ CONN 32–25 WYOWYO 21–56 CONN neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesWYO 25–53 CONN neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesWYO 28–49 CONN neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesWYO 32–46 CONN neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesWYO 35–42 CONN neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesWYO 39–39 CONN neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesWYO 42–35 CONN neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesWYO 46–32 CONN neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesWYO 49–28 CONN neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesWYO 18–53 CONN neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesWYO 21–49 CONN neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesWYO 25–46 CONN neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesWYO 28–42 CONN neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesWYO 32–39 CONN neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesWYO 35–35 CONN neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesWYO 39–32 CONN neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesWYO 42–28 CONN neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesWYO 46–25 CONN neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesWYO 14–49 CONN neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesWYO 18–46 CONN neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesWYO 21–42 CONN neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesWYO 25–39 CONN neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesWYO 28–35 CONN neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesWYO 32–32 CONN neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesWYO 35–28 CONN neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesWYO 39–25 CONN neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesWYO 42–21 CONN neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesWYO 11–46 CONN neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesWYO 14–42 CONN neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesWYO 18–39 CONN neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesWYO 21–35 CONN neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesWYO 25–32 CONN neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesWYO 28–28 CONN neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesWYO 32–25 CONN neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesWYO 35–21 CONN neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesWYO 39–18 CONN neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesWYO 7–42 CONN neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesWYO 11–39 CONN neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesWYO 14–35 CONN neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesWYO 18–32 CONN neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesWYO 21–28 CONN neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesWYO 25–25 CONN neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesWYO 28–21 CONN neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesWYO 32–18 CONN neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesWYO 35–14 CONN neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesWYO 4–39 CONN neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesWYO 7–35 CONN neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesWYO 11–32 CONN neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesWYO 14–28 CONN neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesWYO 18–25 CONN neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesWYO 21–21 CONN neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesWYO 25–18 CONN neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesWYO 28–14 CONN neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesWYO 32–11 CONN neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesWYO 0–35 CONN neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesWYO 4–32 CONN neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesWYO 7–28 CONN neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesWYO 11–25 CONN neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesWYO 14–21 CONN neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesWYO 18–18 CONN neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesWYO 21–14 CONN neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesWYO 25–11 CONN neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesWYO 28–7 CONN neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomes77706356494235totalCONN +35CONN +21CONN +7WYO +7WYO +21margin →