AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 13 · Sat Nov 28 · 5:00 AM
Georgia Governor's Cup
#38Away
Georgia Tech
0-0 · AVR 59.1
17p
#3Home
Georgia
0-0 · AVR 80.0
40p
GT 6%94% UGA
Spread
UGA -22.9
Total
56
Moneyline
GT+1567UGA-1567
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← GT advantageevenUGA advantage →
GT throw
GT protection #23UGA pass rush #88
even
GT run
UGA front #88UGA linebackers #4
GT +20
UGA throw
UGA +31
UGA run
UGA +40

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when GT runs
Justice Haynes
vs
Chris Cole
RB · GT
MLB · UGA
77.3
85.5
UGA +8
off the edge· hunting Mendoza
Will Reed
vs
Elijah Griffin
LT · GT
EDGE · UGA
84.8
64.1
GT +21
when UGA throws
Isiah Canion
vs
Jonas Duclona
X · UGA
CB1 · GT
63.4
85.0
GT +22
when GT throws
Jordan Allen
vs
KJ Bolden
X · GT
CB1 · UGA
64.6
81.2
UGA +17
when UGA runs
Nate Frazier
vs
Kyle Efford
RB · UGA
MLB · GT
81.1
60.9
UGA +20
off the edge· hunting Stockton
Drew Bobo
vs
Brayden Manley
LT · UGA
EDGE · GT
63.4
59.3
UGA +4

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Georgia Tech
CBJonas Duclona
85.044/1427
CBJaylen Mbakwe
81.281/1427
RBJustice Haynes
77.331/514
WRJordan Allen
64.686/777
LBKyle Efford
60.9268/878
LBCayman Spaulding
60.1284/878
Georgia
LBChris Cole
85.521/878
LBRaylen Wilson
84.324/878
QBGunner Stockton
81.718/308
DBKJ Bolden
81.280/1427
RBNate Frazier
81.119/514
SKhalil Barnes
74.0164/1427

also out — unknown, Dante Dowdell (RB), Kirby Smart (RB), AJC.com (DB), Former Georgia Bulldogs OL (OL), Drew Bobo (C), Carter Loflin (OL)

Projected margin

80% between 5 and 41
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKUGA +22.995% interval: -1.7 to 47.580% interval: 5 to 40.8+5+41GT wins 6%UGA wins 94%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ UGA 39–18 GTUGA 35–42 GT neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUGA 39–39 GT neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUGA 42–35 GT neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUGA 46–32 GT neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUGA 49–28 GT neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUGA 53–25 GT neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUGA 56–21 GT neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesUGA 60–18 GT neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUGA 63–14 GT neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUGA 32–39 GT neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUGA 35–35 GT neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUGA 39–32 GT neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesUGA 42–28 GT neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesUGA 46–25 GT neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesUGA 49–21 GT neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesUGA 53–18 GT neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUGA 56–14 GT neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUGA 60–11 GT neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUGA 28–35 GT neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUGA 32–32 GT neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUGA 35–28 GT neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUGA 39–25 GT neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesUGA 42–21 GT neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesUGA 46–18 GT neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesUGA 49–14 GT neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUGA 53–11 GT neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUGA 56–7 GT neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUGA 25–32 GT neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUGA 28–28 GT neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUGA 32–25 GT neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUGA 35–21 GT neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesUGA 39–18 GT neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesUGA 42–14 GT neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesUGA 46–11 GT neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesUGA 49–7 GT neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUGA 53–4 GT neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUGA 21–28 GT neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUGA 25–25 GT neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUGA 28–21 GT neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUGA 32–18 GT neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesUGA 35–14 GT neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesUGA 39–11 GT neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesUGA 42–7 GT neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUGA 46–4 GT neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUGA 49–0 GT neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUGA 18–25 GT neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUGA 21–21 GT neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUGA 25–18 GT neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesUGA 28–14 GT neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesUGA 32–11 GT neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesUGA 35–7 GT neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesUGA 39–4 GT neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUGA 42–0 GT neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)UGA 14–21 GT neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUGA 18–18 GT neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUGA 21–14 GT neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUGA 25–11 GT neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUGA 28–7 GT neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUGA 32–4 GT neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUGA 35–0 GT neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)77706356494235totalGT +7UGA +7UGA +21UGA +35UGA +49margin →