AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 13 · Sat Nov 28 · 5:00 AM
#51Away
Cincinnati
0-0 · AVR 54.8
21p
#19Home
BYU
0-0 · AVR 69.1
35p
CIN 16%84% BYU
Spread
BYU -14.1
Total
56
Moneyline
CIN+511BYU-511
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← CIN advantageevenBYU advantage →
CIN throw
CIN protection #3
even
CIN run
CIN backs #64
CIN +11
BYU throw
BYU WR #81CIN coverage #55
BYU +39
BYU run
CIN linebackers #76
BYU +59

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting IV
Evan Tengesdahl
vs
Keanu Tanuvasa
LT · CIN
EDGE · BYU
97.1
67.4
CIN +30
when BYU runs
LJ Martin
vs
Jonathan Thompson
RB · BYU
MLB · CIN
84.9
72.1
BYU +13
when CIN throws
Isaiah Johnson
vs
Evan Johnson
X · CIN
CB1 · BYU
64.7
85.7
BYU +21
when CIN runs
Zylan Perry
vs
Isaiah Glasker
RB · CIN
MLB · BYU
62.9
84.3
BYU +21
off the edge· hunting Bachmeier
Bruce Mitchell
vs
Chidera Otutu
LT · BYU
EDGE · CIN
88.8
57.1
BYU +32
over the middle
Walker Lyons
vs
Antwan Peek Jr.
TE · BYU
FS · CIN
68.0
65.6
dead even

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Cincinnati
STy Goodwill
76.9128/1427
DBMJ Cannon
74.9156/1427
LBJonathan Thompson
72.1122/878
SJasper Beeler
67.8287/1427
QBJC French IV
67.449/308
WRIsaiah Johnson
64.785/777
BYU
QBBear Bachmeier
96.72/308
CBEvan Johnson
85.737/1427
SFaletau Satualaprobable
85.640/1427
RBLJ Martin
84.96/514
LBIsaiah Glasker
84.325/878
CBTherrian Alexander III
79.792/1427

Common opponents

3 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Cincinnati
opponent
BYU
away-10.9
Arizona#26
+5.8home
away-2.9
Iowa State#56
+13.7home
home-11.2
Utah#16
-4.5away

Projected margin

80% between -4 and 32
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKBYU +14.195% interval: -10.5 to 38.780% interval: -3.8 to 32-4+32CIN wins 16%BYU wins 84%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ BYU 35–21 CINBYU 32–46 CIN neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesBYU 35–42 CIN neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesBYU 39–39 CIN neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesBYU 42–35 CIN neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesBYU 46–32 CIN neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesBYU 49–28 CIN neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesBYU 53–25 CIN neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesBYU 56–21 CIN neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesBYU 60–18 CIN neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesBYU 28–42 CIN neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesBYU 32–39 CIN neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesBYU 35–35 CIN neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesBYU 39–32 CIN neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesBYU 42–28 CIN neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesBYU 46–25 CIN neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesBYU 49–21 CIN neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesBYU 53–18 CIN neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesBYU 56–14 CIN neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesBYU 25–39 CIN neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesBYU 28–35 CIN neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesBYU 32–32 CIN neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesBYU 35–28 CIN neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesBYU 39–25 CIN neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesBYU 42–21 CIN neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesBYU 46–18 CIN neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesBYU 49–14 CIN neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesBYU 53–11 CIN neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesBYU 21–35 CIN neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesBYU 25–32 CIN neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesBYU 28–28 CIN neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesBYU 32–25 CIN neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesBYU 35–21 CIN neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesBYU 39–18 CIN neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesBYU 42–14 CIN neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesBYU 46–11 CIN neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesBYU 49–7 CIN neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesBYU 18–32 CIN neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesBYU 21–28 CIN neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesBYU 25–25 CIN neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesBYU 28–21 CIN neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesBYU 32–18 CIN neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesBYU 35–14 CIN neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesBYU 39–11 CIN neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesBYU 42–7 CIN neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesBYU 46–4 CIN neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesBYU 14–28 CIN neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesBYU 18–25 CIN neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesBYU 21–21 CIN neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesBYU 25–18 CIN neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesBYU 28–14 CIN neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesBYU 32–11 CIN neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesBYU 35–7 CIN neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesBYU 39–4 CIN neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesBYU 42–0 CIN neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesBYU 11–25 CIN neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesBYU 14–21 CIN neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesBYU 18–18 CIN neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesBYU 21–14 CIN neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesBYU 25–11 CIN neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesBYU 28–7 CIN neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesBYU 32–4 CIN neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesBYU 35–0 CIN neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)77706356494235totalCIN +14PKBYU +14BYU +28BYU +42margin →