AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 13 · Sat Nov 28 · 5:00 AM
#99Away
Louisiana
0-0 · AVR 40.0
32p
#131Home
Georgia State
0-0 · AVR 26.7
25p
UL 71%29% GAST
Spread
UL -7.7
Total
57
Moneyline
UL-239GAST+239
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← UL advantageevenGAST advantage →
UL throw
UL +33
UL run
UL +17
GAST throw
UL pass rush #152
GAST +12
GAST run
GAST +7

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
over the middle
Grant Hollier
vs
Kerry Wilson
TE · GAST
FS · UL
61.3
57.5
GAST +4
when UL throws
Shelton Sampson Jr.
vs
Deuce Walker
X · UL
CB1 · GAST
74.3
42.6
UL +32
when GAST throws
Jaylin Marshall
vs
Brent Gordon Jr.
X · GAST
CB1 · UL
44.1
71.4
UL +27
when GAST runs
Dennis Murray Jr.
vs
Conor McPherson
RB · GAST
MLB · UL
47.2
54.2
UL +7
off the edge· hunting Brown
Deylin Hasert
vs
Maxie Baudoin IV
LT · GAST
EDGE · UL
54.8
41.6
GAST +13
off the edge· hunting Winfield
J'Marion Gooch
vs
Kelze Howard
LT · UL
EDGE · GAST
40.5
46.4
GAST +6

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Louisiana
WRShelton Sampson Jr.
74.335/777
CBBrent Gordon Jr.
71.4207/1427
SCollin Jacob
60.3473/1427
SMaurion Eleam
59.4497/1427
LBConor McPherson
54.2404/878
QBLunch Winfield
52.2133/308
Georgia State
TEGrant Hollier
61.340/287
QBCameran Brown
58.277/308
RBDennis Murray Jr.
47.2376/514
WRJaylin Marshall
44.1490/777
WRDerrick Avery Jr.
42.9530/777
SDeuce Walker
42.6961/1427

Common opponents

2 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Louisiana
opponent
Georgia State
home+6.2
Arkansas State#104
-9.0away
home+13.2
Coastal Carolina#126
+3.0home

Projected margin

80% between -26 and 10
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKUL +7.795% interval: -32.2 to 16.980% interval: -25.5 to 10.2-25+10UL wins 71%GAST wins 29%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ UL 32–25 GASTGAST 21–56 UL neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesGAST 25–53 UL neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesGAST 28–49 UL neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesGAST 32–46 UL neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesGAST 35–42 UL neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesGAST 39–39 UL neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesGAST 42–35 UL neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesGAST 46–32 UL neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesGAST 49–28 UL neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesGAST 18–53 UL neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesGAST 21–49 UL neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesGAST 25–46 UL neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesGAST 28–42 UL neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesGAST 32–39 UL neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesGAST 35–35 UL neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesGAST 39–32 UL neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesGAST 42–28 UL neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesGAST 46–25 UL neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesGAST 14–49 UL neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesGAST 18–46 UL neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesGAST 21–42 UL neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesGAST 25–39 UL neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesGAST 28–35 UL neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesGAST 32–32 UL neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesGAST 35–28 UL neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesGAST 39–25 UL neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesGAST 42–21 UL neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesGAST 11–46 UL neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesGAST 14–42 UL neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesGAST 18–39 UL neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesGAST 21–35 UL neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesGAST 25–32 UL neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesGAST 28–28 UL neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesGAST 32–25 UL neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesGAST 35–21 UL neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesGAST 39–18 UL neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesGAST 7–42 UL neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesGAST 11–39 UL neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesGAST 14–35 UL neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesGAST 18–32 UL neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesGAST 21–28 UL neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesGAST 25–25 UL neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesGAST 28–21 UL neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesGAST 32–18 UL neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesGAST 35–14 UL neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesGAST 4–39 UL neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesGAST 7–35 UL neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesGAST 11–32 UL neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesGAST 14–28 UL neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesGAST 18–25 UL neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesGAST 21–21 UL neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesGAST 25–18 UL neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesGAST 28–14 UL neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesGAST 32–11 UL neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesGAST 0–35 UL neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesGAST 4–32 UL neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesGAST 7–28 UL neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesGAST 11–25 UL neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesGAST 14–21 UL neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesGAST 18–18 UL neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesGAST 21–14 UL neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesGAST 25–11 UL neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesGAST 28–7 UL neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomes77706356494235totalUL +35UL +21UL +7GAST +7GAST +21margin →