CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 13 · Sat Nov 28 · 12:00 AM ET
Forecast win probability
UL 47.8%52.2% GAST
Projected margin
GAST by 0.7
Projected total
56
80% outcome range
UL 18 to GAST 19
Win probability
GAST 52.2%

Current team profiles

Louisiana
Georgia State

When Louisiana has the ball

Passing

GAST defense
Higher-ranked profile
UL offense
#62
GAST defense
#7
EPA comparison
0.25
#62
-0.10
#7
Pass EPA

Rushing

UL offense
Higher-ranked profile
UL offense
#45
GAST defense
#73
EPA comparison
0.16
#45
0.05
#73
Rush EPA

Drive success

GAST defense
Higher-ranked profile
UL offense
#68
GAST defense
#30
Success rates
44%
#68
35%
#30
Success rate
More metrics
0.15
#70
-0.05
#25
EPA / play
1.19
#95
1.20
#60
Explosiveness
14%
#52
20%
#15
Havoc

When Georgia State has the ball

Passing

GAST offense
Higher-ranked profile
UL defense
#93
GAST offense
#12
EPA comparison
0.22
#93
0.49
#12
Pass EPA

Rushing

UL defense
Higher-ranked profile
UL defense
#7
GAST offense
#63
EPA comparison
-0.20
#7
0.12
#63
Rush EPA

Drive success

GAST offense
Higher-ranked profile
UL defense
#94
GAST offense
#41
Success rates
42%
#94
47%
#41
Success rate
More metrics
-0.04
#27
0.24
#32
EPA / play
1.10
#20
1.29
#36
Explosiveness
18%
#39
11%
#14
Havoc

Current key players

Louisiana
QBLunch Winfield
849 yds · 2 TD · 2 INT
89.726/729
CBBrent Gordon Jr.
30 tkl · 5 PD · 2 INT
Player detail
Run defense
79.8
Coverage
90.0
Targets allowed
29
Rec allowed
16
Yards allowed
157
Passer rating allowed
64.9
Missed tackles
6
90.010/2969
CBCam Riley
0 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
60.0
Coverage
79.1
Targets allowed
1
Rec allowed
0
Yards allowed
0
Passer rating allowed
39.6
Missed tackles
0
79.570/2969
SLake Bates
8 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
62.6
Coverage
77.6
Targets allowed
2
Rec allowed
0
Yards allowed
0
Passer rating allowed
39.6
Missed tackles
2
77.2117/2969
LBLester Jones
2 tkl · 1.0 TFL · 1.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
53.4
Coverage
48.2
Pressures
4
Pass-rush snaps
27
Missed tackles
1
Forced fumbles
0
75.5169/1796
RBAnthony Reagan Jr.
160 yds · 2 TD · 4.1 YPC
75.2175/1044
Availability reports · 3
  • Darrell Smith · RBout · 2026-10-07

    Smith is fighting off an undisclosed injury, and he will be idle for the remainder of the season.

  • Ja'Corian Norris · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Norris is laid up with an undisclosed injury, and it is undetermined whether he will suit up against Trojans on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Jerry Birdlow · TEQues. · 2026-10-11

    Birdlow is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and it is uncertain if he will play against Trojans on Saturday, October 17th.

Georgia State
QBCameran Brown
1157 yds · 12 TD · 4 INT
90.322/729
LBXavier Esqillion
18 tkl · 8.5 TFL · 7.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
72.9
Coverage
62.0
Pressures
25
Pass-rush snaps
93
Missed tackles
4
Forced fumbles
2
94.22/1796
LBKhalid Feliz
1 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
75.3
Pressures
1
Pass-rush snaps
7
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
0
84.349/1796
RBDennis Murray Jr.
103 yds · 2 TD · 4.9 YPC
81.164/1044
WRIsaiah Stone
3 rec · 46 yds · 1 TD
75.4119/2069
WRRodshaun Dorsey
18 rec · 276 yds · 6 TD
75.3121/2069
Position units

Position-unit comparison

UL
GAST
vs
Offense
89.7
#25 of 138
QB
90.3
#21 of 138
73.6
#90 of 138
RB
77.2
#53 of 138
69.0
#93 of 138
WR
74.1
#41 of 138
71.5
#54 of 138
TE
64.8
#91 of 138
61.4
#124 of 138
OL
72.2
#33 of 138
Defense
66.1
#133 of 138
DL
72.4
#78 of 138
70.2
#104 of 138
LB
85.7
#2 of 138
78.5
#7 of 138
DB
69.8
#101 of 138
Common opponents

Common opponents

Louisiana
opponent
Georgia State
H+3.0
ARST#91
+0.5A
H+12.1
CCU#127
+10.1H