AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 13 · Sat Nov 28 · 5:00 AM
#94Away
Louisiana Tech
0-0 · AVR 42.0
29p
#117Home
Georgia Southern
0-0 · AVR 33.9
27p
LT 54%46% GASO
Spread
LT -1.5
Total
56
Moneyline
LT-118GASO+118
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← LT advantageevenGASO advantage →
LT throw
LT +33
LT run
GASO front #157GASO linebackers #66
LT +31
GASO throw
LT +38
GASO run
LT +19

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Bryan
Caelan Williams
vs
Judd Rouyea
LT · GASO
EDGE · LT
78.6
83.2
LT +5
when GASO throws
Ashton Hollins
vs
Jaitlin Hampton
X · GASO
CB1 · LT
49.2
83.7
LT +34
when GASO runs
David Mbadinga
vs
Jadon Mayfield
RB · GASO
MLB · LT
50.8
68.2
LT +17
over the middle
JP Mikhael
vs
Sam Fongang
TE · GASO
FS · LT
50.3
68.5
LT +18
off the edge· hunting Kukuk
Troy Smith III
vs
Caleb Moore
LT · LT
EDGE · GASO
53.7
49.3
LT +4
when LT throws
Jalen Mickens
vs
Tracy Hill Jr.
X · LT
CB1 · GASO
44.3
50.9
GASO +7

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Louisiana Tech
DBJaitlin Hampton
83.760/1427
DBKam Franklin
75.3152/1427
DBJavari Lockhart
69.1261/1427
DBSam Fongang
68.5274/1427
LBJadon Mayfield
68.2175/878
LBAlonzo Jackson Jr.
61.2265/878
Georgia Southern
LBAnthony Bynum
78.180/878
LBMJ Stroud
62.8244/878
QBWeston Bryan
51.6140/308
DBTracy Hill Jr.
50.9747/1427
RBDavid Mbadinga
50.8272/514
TEJP Mikhael
50.3129/287

Common opponents

2 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Louisiana Tech
opponent
Georgia Southern
home-1.0
Old Dominion#76
-10.0away
away-2.5
Troy#95
-6.4away

Projected margin

80% between -19 and 16
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKLT +1.595% interval: -26.1 to 23.180% interval: -19.4 to 16.4-19+16LT wins 54%GASO wins 46%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ GASO 28–28 LTGASO 25–53 LT neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesGASO 28–49 LT neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesGASO 32–46 LT neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesGASO 35–42 LT neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesGASO 39–39 LT neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesGASO 42–35 LT neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesGASO 46–32 LT neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesGASO 49–28 LT neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesGASO 53–25 LT neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesGASO 21–49 LT neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesGASO 25–46 LT neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesGASO 28–42 LT neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesGASO 32–39 LT neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesGASO 35–35 LT neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesGASO 39–32 LT neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesGASO 42–28 LT neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesGASO 46–25 LT neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesGASO 49–21 LT neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesGASO 18–46 LT neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesGASO 21–42 LT neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesGASO 25–39 LT neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesGASO 28–35 LT neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesGASO 32–32 LT neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesGASO 35–28 LT neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesGASO 39–25 LT neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesGASO 42–21 LT neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesGASO 46–18 LT neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesGASO 14–42 LT neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesGASO 18–39 LT neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesGASO 21–35 LT neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesGASO 25–32 LT neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesGASO 28–28 LT neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesGASO 32–25 LT neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesGASO 35–21 LT neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesGASO 39–18 LT neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesGASO 42–14 LT neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesGASO 11–39 LT neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesGASO 14–35 LT neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesGASO 18–32 LT neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesGASO 21–28 LT neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesGASO 25–25 LT neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesGASO 28–21 LT neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesGASO 32–18 LT neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesGASO 35–14 LT neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesGASO 39–11 LT neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesGASO 7–35 LT neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesGASO 11–32 LT neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesGASO 14–28 LT neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesGASO 18–25 LT neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesGASO 21–21 LT neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesGASO 25–18 LT neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesGASO 28–14 LT neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesGASO 32–11 LT neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesGASO 35–7 LT neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesGASO 4–32 LT neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesGASO 7–28 LT neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesGASO 11–25 LT neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesGASO 14–21 LT neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesGASO 18–18 LT neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesGASO 21–14 LT neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesGASO 25–11 LT neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesGASO 28–7 LT neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesGASO 32–4 LT neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomes77706356494235totalLT +28LT +14PKGASO +14GASO +28margin →