AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 13 · Sat Nov 28 · 5:00 AM
#137Away
Sam Houston
0-0 · AVR 21.9
21p
#109Home
Florida International
0-0 · AVR 36.2
34p
SHSU 18%82% FIU
Spread
FIU -13.2
Total
55
Moneyline
SHSU+450FIU-450
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← SHSU advantageevenFIU advantage →
SHSU throw
FIU +48
SHSU run
FIU +33
FIU throw
FIU protection #99
FIU +36
FIU run
FIU +7

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when SHSU runs
Landan Brown
vs
Brayshawn Littlejohn
RB · SHSU
MLB · FIU
57.0
70.1
FIU +13
when SHSU throws
Chris Reed
vs
Shamir Sterlin
X · SHSU
CB1 · FIU
43.4
81.3
FIU +38
when FIU runs
Anthony Carrie
vs
Dean Ford
RB · FIU
MLB · SHSU
57.2
53.9
FIU +3
off the edge· hunting Kohl
Antonio Tripp Jr.
vs
Dylan Frazier
LT · FIU
EDGE · SHSU
38.2
69.5
SHSU +31
when FIU throws
Maguire Anderson
vs
Tyler Bailey
X · FIU
CB1 · SHSU
51.3
41.3
FIU +10
over the middle
Max Whisner
vs
Wesley Miller
TE · SHSU
FS · FIU
37.2
51.1
FIU +14

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Sam Houston
RBLandan Brown
57.0141/514
LBDean Ford
53.9406/878
LBEli Wallace
50.0482/878
WRChris Reed
43.4511/777
QBLandyn Locke
42.0257/308
STyler Bailey
41.3998/1427
Florida International
DBShamir Sterlin
81.379/1427
DBJai-Ayviauynn Celestine
70.2233/1427
LBBrayshawn Littlejohn
70.1144/878
QBJJ Kohl
68.047/308
DBLawrence Johnson
61.5445/1427
RBAnthony Carrie
57.2136/514

Common opponents

6 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Sam Houston
opponent
Florida International
away-6.9
Missouri State#125
+8.8home
away-16.4
Liberty#106
-5.7away
home-3.8
Middle Tennessee#124
+6.9home
away-17.8
Jacksonville State#89
-7.2away
home-0.2
New Mexico State#130
+10.4home
home-6.4
Kennesaw State#105
-0.7away

Projected margin

80% between -5 and 31
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKFIU +13.295% interval: -11.4 to 37.780% interval: -4.7 to 31-5+31SHSU wins 18%FIU wins 82%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ FIU 35–21 SHSUFIU 32–46 SHSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesFIU 35–42 SHSU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesFIU 39–39 SHSU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesFIU 42–35 SHSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesFIU 46–32 SHSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesFIU 49–28 SHSU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesFIU 53–25 SHSU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesFIU 56–21 SHSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesFIU 60–18 SHSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesFIU 28–42 SHSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesFIU 32–39 SHSU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesFIU 35–35 SHSU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesFIU 39–32 SHSU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesFIU 42–28 SHSU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesFIU 46–25 SHSU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesFIU 49–21 SHSU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesFIU 53–18 SHSU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesFIU 56–14 SHSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesFIU 25–39 SHSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesFIU 28–35 SHSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesFIU 32–32 SHSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesFIU 35–28 SHSU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesFIU 39–25 SHSU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesFIU 42–21 SHSU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesFIU 46–18 SHSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesFIU 49–14 SHSU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesFIU 53–11 SHSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesFIU 21–35 SHSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesFIU 25–32 SHSU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesFIU 28–28 SHSU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesFIU 32–25 SHSU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesFIU 35–21 SHSU neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesFIU 39–18 SHSU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesFIU 42–14 SHSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesFIU 46–11 SHSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesFIU 49–7 SHSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesFIU 18–32 SHSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesFIU 21–28 SHSU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesFIU 25–25 SHSU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesFIU 28–21 SHSU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesFIU 32–18 SHSU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesFIU 35–14 SHSU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesFIU 39–11 SHSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesFIU 42–7 SHSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesFIU 46–4 SHSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesFIU 14–28 SHSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesFIU 18–25 SHSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesFIU 21–21 SHSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesFIU 25–18 SHSU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesFIU 28–14 SHSU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesFIU 32–11 SHSU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesFIU 35–7 SHSU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesFIU 39–4 SHSU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesFIU 42–0 SHSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesFIU 11–25 SHSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesFIU 14–21 SHSU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesFIU 18–18 SHSU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesFIU 21–14 SHSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesFIU 25–11 SHSU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesFIU 28–7 SHSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesFIU 32–4 SHSU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesFIU 35–0 SHSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)77706356494235totalSHSU +14PKFIU +14FIU +28FIU +42margin →