AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 13 · Sat Nov 28 · 5:00 AM
#50Away
Kansas
0-0 · AVR 55.4
34p
#97Home
Oklahoma State
0-0 · AVR 40.7
23p
KU 77%23% OKST
Spread
KU -10.7
Total
57
Moneyline
KU-338OKST+338
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← KU advantageevenOKST advantage →
KU throw
KU QB #95KU protection #1
OKST +6
KU run
KU backs #63
KU +23
OKST throw
OKST protection #77KU pass rush #42
OKST +29
OKST run
OKST backs #26
KU +13

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Marshall
James Livingston
vs
Keviyan Huddleston
LT · KU
EDGE · OKST
96.9
79.1
KU +18
off the edge· hunting Mestemaker
Johnny Dickson III
vs
Blake Herold
LT · OKST
EDGE · KU
90.8
82.8
OKST +8
when OKST runs
Caleb Hawkins
vs
Jibreel Al-Amin
RB · OKST
MLB · KU
88.3
78.3
OKST +10
when OKST throws
Wyatt Young
vs
Jalen Todd
X · OKST
CB1 · KU
79.7
67.8
OKST +12
when KU throws
Cam Pickett
vs
Kollin Lewis
X · KU
CB1 · OKST
68.5
68.8
dead even
when KU runs
Yasin Willis
vs
Ethan Wesloski
RB · KU
MLB · OKST
59.9
76.0
OKST +16

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Kansas
LBJibreel Al-Amin
78.376/878
LBTrey Lathan
75.4103/878
WRCam Pickettquestionable
68.561/777
CBJalen Todd
67.8284/1427
SCorey Gordon
66.4323/1427
TELeyton Cure
60.053/287

also out — J. Thurman (RB), Tre'von McAlpine (DL)

Oklahoma State
RBCaleb Hawkins
88.32/514
QBDrew Mestemaker
86.39/308
WRWyatt Young
79.722/777
LBEthan Wesloski
76.095/878
CBKollin Lewis
68.8265/1427
SChristian Bodnar
68.1279/1427

Common opponents

4 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Kansas
opponent
Oklahoma State
neutral0.0
Arizona State#43
-15.7away
home+4.9
UCF#52
-8.3home
away-4.5
Kansas State#44
-17.7away
away+2.8
West Virginia#66
-10.4away

Projected margin

80% between -29 and 7
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKKU +10.795% interval: -35.3 to 13.980% interval: -28.6 to 7.2-29+7KU wins 77%OKST wins 23%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ KU 35–21 OKSTOKST 18–60 KU neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesOKST 21–56 KU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesOKST 25–53 KU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesOKST 28–49 KU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesOKST 32–46 KU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesOKST 35–42 KU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesOKST 39–39 KU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesOKST 42–35 KU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesOKST 46–32 KU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesOKST 14–56 KU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesOKST 18–53 KU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesOKST 21–49 KU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesOKST 25–46 KU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesOKST 28–42 KU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesOKST 32–39 KU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesOKST 35–35 KU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesOKST 39–32 KU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesOKST 42–28 KU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesOKST 11–53 KU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesOKST 14–49 KU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesOKST 18–46 KU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesOKST 21–42 KU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesOKST 25–39 KU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesOKST 28–35 KU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesOKST 32–32 KU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesOKST 35–28 KU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesOKST 39–25 KU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesOKST 7–49 KU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesOKST 11–46 KU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesOKST 14–42 KU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesOKST 18–39 KU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesOKST 21–35 KU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesOKST 25–32 KU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesOKST 28–28 KU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesOKST 32–25 KU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesOKST 35–21 KU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesOKST 4–46 KU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesOKST 7–42 KU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesOKST 11–39 KU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesOKST 14–35 KU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesOKST 18–32 KU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesOKST 21–28 KU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesOKST 25–25 KU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesOKST 28–21 KU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesOKST 32–18 KU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesOKST 0–42 KU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesOKST 4–39 KU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesOKST 7–35 KU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesOKST 11–32 KU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesOKST 14–28 KU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesOKST 18–25 KU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesOKST 21–21 KU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesOKST 25–18 KU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesOKST 28–14 KU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)OKST 0–35 KU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesOKST 4–32 KU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesOKST 7–28 KU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesOKST 11–25 KU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesOKST 14–21 KU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesOKST 18–18 KU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesOKST 21–14 KU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesOKST 25–11 KU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomes77706356494235totalKU +42KU +28KU +14PKOKST +14margin →