AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 13 · Fri Nov 27 · 5:00 AM
#108Away
Florida Atlantic
0-0 · AVR 36.6
24p
#77Home
East Carolina
0-0 · AVR 47.2
33p
FAU 27%73% ECU
Spread
ECU -8.8
Total
57
Moneyline
FAU+268ECU-268
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← FAU advantageevenECU advantage →
FAU throw
ECU pass rush #6
even
FAU run
ECU +29
ECU throw
ECU protection #25
ECU +6
ECU run
ECU +15

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Veltkamp
Vincent Fiacable
vs
Jasiyah Robinson
LT · FAU
EDGE · ECU
71.7
93.2
ECU +21
off the edge· hunting Griffis
Karson Jones
vs
Blake Burris
LT · ECU
EDGE · FAU
69.2
81.1
FAU +12
when FAU throws
Easton Messer
vs
Kevon Merrell Jr.
X · FAU
CB1 · ECU
67.8
74.1
ECU +6
when FAU runs
Kaden Shields-Dutton
vs
DJ Johnson Jr.
RB · FAU
MLB · ECU
60.5
73.7
ECU +13
when ECU runs
Michael Allen
vs
Joseph Sipp Jr.
RB · ECU
MLB · FAU
58.2
71.4
FAU +13
when ECU throws
Brock Spalding
vs
Jay Crable
X · ECU
CB1 · FAU
52.8
67.8
FAU +15

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Florida Atlantic
LBJoseph Sipp Jr.
71.4127/878
QBCaden Veltkamp
68.345/308
WREaston Messer
67.865/777
DBJay Crable
67.8283/1427
WRDominique Henry
66.376/777
DBJosh Roberts
60.8463/1427
East Carolina
DBKevon Merrell Jr.
74.1163/1427
LBDJ Johnson Jr.
73.7115/878
LBCrews Law
70.2143/878
DBZyeir Gamble
66.6319/1427
DBDerrion Horsley
65.2352/1427
QBMitch Griffis
59.771/308

Common opponents

3 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Florida Atlantic
opponent
East Carolina
home+8.1
Rice#127
+14.4home
home-4.6
South Florida#78
+1.7home
away+0.5
Army#118
+6.7away

Projected margin

80% between -9 and 27
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKECU +8.895% interval: -15.8 to 33.380% interval: -9.1 to 26.6-9+27FAU wins 27%ECU wins 73%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ ECU 32–25 FAUECU 28–49 FAU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesECU 32–46 FAU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesECU 35–42 FAU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesECU 39–39 FAU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesECU 42–35 FAU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesECU 46–32 FAU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesECU 49–28 FAU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesECU 53–25 FAU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesECU 56–21 FAU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesECU 25–46 FAU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesECU 28–42 FAU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesECU 32–39 FAU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesECU 35–35 FAU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesECU 39–32 FAU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesECU 42–28 FAU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesECU 46–25 FAU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesECU 49–21 FAU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesECU 53–18 FAU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesECU 21–42 FAU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesECU 25–39 FAU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesECU 28–35 FAU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesECU 32–32 FAU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesECU 35–28 FAU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesECU 39–25 FAU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesECU 42–21 FAU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesECU 46–18 FAU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesECU 49–14 FAU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesECU 18–39 FAU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesECU 21–35 FAU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesECU 25–32 FAU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesECU 28–28 FAU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesECU 32–25 FAU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesECU 35–21 FAU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesECU 39–18 FAU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesECU 42–14 FAU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesECU 46–11 FAU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesECU 14–35 FAU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesECU 18–32 FAU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesECU 21–28 FAU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesECU 25–25 FAU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesECU 28–21 FAU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesECU 32–18 FAU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesECU 35–14 FAU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesECU 39–11 FAU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesECU 42–7 FAU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesECU 11–32 FAU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesECU 14–28 FAU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesECU 18–25 FAU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesECU 21–21 FAU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesECU 25–18 FAU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesECU 28–14 FAU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesECU 32–11 FAU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesECU 35–7 FAU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesECU 39–4 FAU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesECU 7–28 FAU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesECU 11–25 FAU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesECU 14–21 FAU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesECU 18–18 FAU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesECU 21–14 FAU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesECU 25–11 FAU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesECU 28–7 FAU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesECU 32–4 FAU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesECU 35–0 FAU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomes77706356494235totalFAU +21FAU +7ECU +7ECU +21ECU +35margin →