AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 13 · Sat Nov 28 · 5:00 AM
#121Away
UAB
0-0 · AVR 31.9
26p
#80Home
North Texas
0-0 · AVR 46.7
38p
UAB 22%78% UNT
Spread
UNT -11.2
Total
64
Moneyline
UAB+354UNT-354
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← UAB advantageevenUNT advantage →
UAB throw
even
UAB run
UAB +8
UNT throw
UNT +34
UNT run
UNT +5

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when UAB throws
AJ Johnson
vs
Graham Gillespie
X · UAB
CB1 · UNT
49.4
73.0
UNT +24
off the edge· hunting Burton
Calib Perez
vs
Udoka Ezeani
LT · UAB
EDGE · UNT
50.0
70.7
UNT +21
when UAB runs
Bam McReynolds
vs
Aaron Alexander
RB · UAB
MLB · UNT
57.9
58.9
dead even
when UNT runs
Brendon Haygood
vs
Muaaz Byard
RB · UNT
MLB · UAB
51.6
64.0
UAB +12
when UNT throws
Andy Jean
vs
Guylijah Theodule
X · UNT
CB1 · UAB
56.0
56.5
dead even
over the middle
Antonio Ferguson
vs
Julian Knox Sr.
TE · UAB
FS · UNT
48.7
52.4
UNT +4

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
UAB
LBMuaaz Byard
64.0227/878
QBRyder Burton
58.276/308
RBBam McReynolds
57.9131/514
DBGuylijah Theodule
56.5577/1427
DBKris Wokomah
56.1590/1427
DBJeremiah Jordan
53.8658/1427
North Texas
SGraham Gillespie
73.0176/1427
QBTayven Jackson
61.064/308
LBAaron Alexander
58.9314/878
CBChase Canada
57.8537/1427
WRAndy Jean
56.0158/777
WRShandon King
55.1177/777

Common opponents

3 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
UAB
opponent
North Texas
home+9.3
Charlotte#135
+18.1home
home-10.9
UTSA#62
-7.2away
home-4.1
Navy#82
-0.4away

Projected margin

80% between -7 and 29
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKUNT +11.295% interval: -13.4 to 35.880% interval: -6.7 to 29.1-7+29UAB wins 22%UNT wins 78%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ UNT 39–25 UABUNT 35–49 UAB neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUNT 39–46 UAB neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUNT 42–42 UAB neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUNT 46–39 UAB neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUNT 49–35 UAB neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUNT 53–32 UAB neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUNT 56–28 UAB neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUNT 60–25 UAB neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUNT 63–21 UAB neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesUNT 32–46 UAB neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUNT 35–42 UAB neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUNT 39–39 UAB neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUNT 42–35 UAB neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesUNT 46–32 UAB neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesUNT 49–28 UAB neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUNT 53–25 UAB neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUNT 56–21 UAB neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUNT 60–18 UAB neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUNT 28–42 UAB neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUNT 32–39 UAB neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUNT 35–35 UAB neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesUNT 39–32 UAB neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesUNT 42–28 UAB neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesUNT 46–25 UAB neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUNT 49–21 UAB neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUNT 53–18 UAB neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUNT 56–14 UAB neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUNT 25–39 UAB neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUNT 28–35 UAB neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesUNT 32–32 UAB neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesUNT 35–28 UAB neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesUNT 39–25 UAB neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesUNT 42–21 UAB neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesUNT 46–18 UAB neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUNT 49–14 UAB neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUNT 53–11 UAB neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUNT 21–35 UAB neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUNT 25–32 UAB neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUNT 28–28 UAB neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesUNT 32–25 UAB neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesUNT 35–21 UAB neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesUNT 39–18 UAB neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesUNT 42–14 UAB neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesUNT 46–11 UAB neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUNT 49–7 UAB neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUNT 18–32 UAB neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUNT 21–28 UAB neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUNT 25–25 UAB neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUNT 28–21 UAB neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUNT 32–18 UAB neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesUNT 35–14 UAB neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUNT 39–11 UAB neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUNT 42–7 UAB neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUNT 46–4 UAB neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUNT 14–28 UAB neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUNT 18–25 UAB neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUNT 21–21 UAB neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesUNT 25–18 UAB neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUNT 28–14 UAB neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUNT 32–11 UAB neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUNT 35–7 UAB neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUNT 39–4 UAB neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUNT 42–0 UAB neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomes84777063564942totalUAB +14PKUNT +14UNT +28UNT +42margin →