AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 13 · Sat Nov 28 · 5:00 AM
Old Oaken Bucket
#69Away
Purdue
0-0 · AVR 49.1
16p
#7Home
Indiana
0-0 · AVR 76.7
39p
PUR 5%95% IU
Spread
IU -23.6
Total
55
Moneyline
PUR+1755IU-1755
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← PUR advantageevenIU advantage →
PUR throw
PUR protection #96
IU +42
PUR run
IU +60
IU throw
IU +56
IU run
IU +50

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Hoover
Carter Smith
vs
Rodney Lora
LT · IU
EDGE · PUR
94.5
67.2
IU +27
when PUR throws
Asaad Waseem
vs
Amare Ferrell
X · PUR
CB1 · IU
68.9
86.8
IU +18
off the edge· hunting Browne
Micah Banuelos
vs
Stephen Daley
LT · PUR
EDGE · IU
57.3
96.6
IU +39
when IU throws
Shazz Preston
vs
Mister Clark
X · IU
CB1 · PUR
78.0
73.5
IU +5
when PUR runs
Fame Ijeboi
vs
Rolijah Hardy
RB · PUR
MLB · IU
56.4
93.9
IU +38
when IU runs
Turbo Richard
vs
Charles Correa
RB · IU
MLB · PUR
77.5
64.8
IU +13

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Purdue
DBMister Clark
73.5170/1427
WRAsaad Waseem
68.959/777
LBCharles Correa
64.8218/878
LBHudson Miller
63.8229/878
QBRyan Browne
61.563/308
DBDon Saunders
57.3556/1427

also out — K. Fox (TE), Smiley Bradford

Indiana
LBRolijah Hardy
93.91/878
LBIsaiah Jonesprobable
93.53/878
DBAmare Ferrell
86.831/1427
DBJamari Sharpe
85.736/1427
QBJosh Hoover
80.220/308
WRShazz Preston
78.027/777

Common opponents

2 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Purdue
opponent
Indiana
home-1.7
Minnesota#54
+19.4home
home-16.3
Washington#15
-0.2away

Projected margin

80% between 6 and 42
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKIU +23.695% interval: -1 to 48.280% interval: 5.7 to 41.5+6+42PUR wins 5%IU wins 95%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ IU 39–18 PURIU 35–42 PUR neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesIU 39–39 PUR neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesIU 42–35 PUR neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesIU 46–32 PUR neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesIU 49–28 PUR neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesIU 53–25 PUR neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesIU 56–21 PUR neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesIU 60–18 PUR neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesIU 63–14 PUR neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesIU 32–39 PUR neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesIU 35–35 PUR neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesIU 39–32 PUR neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesIU 42–28 PUR neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesIU 46–25 PUR neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesIU 49–21 PUR neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesIU 53–18 PUR neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesIU 56–14 PUR neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesIU 60–11 PUR neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesIU 28–35 PUR neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesIU 32–32 PUR neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesIU 35–28 PUR neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesIU 39–25 PUR neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesIU 42–21 PUR neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesIU 46–18 PUR neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesIU 49–14 PUR neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesIU 53–11 PUR neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesIU 56–7 PUR neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesIU 25–32 PUR neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesIU 28–28 PUR neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesIU 32–25 PUR neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesIU 35–21 PUR neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesIU 39–18 PUR neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesIU 42–14 PUR neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesIU 46–11 PUR neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesIU 49–7 PUR neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesIU 53–4 PUR neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesIU 21–28 PUR neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesIU 25–25 PUR neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesIU 28–21 PUR neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesIU 32–18 PUR neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesIU 35–14 PUR neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesIU 39–11 PUR neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesIU 42–7 PUR neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesIU 46–4 PUR neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesIU 49–0 PUR neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesIU 18–25 PUR neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesIU 21–21 PUR neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesIU 25–18 PUR neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesIU 28–14 PUR neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesIU 32–11 PUR neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesIU 35–7 PUR neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesIU 39–4 PUR neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesIU 42–0 PUR neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)IU 14–21 PUR neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesIU 18–18 PUR neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesIU 21–14 PUR neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesIU 25–11 PUR neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesIU 28–7 PUR neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesIU 32–4 PUR neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesIU 35–0 PUR neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)77706356494235totalPUR +7IU +7IU +21IU +35IU +49margin →