AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 13 · Fri Nov 27 · 5:00 AM
#88Away
Tulane
0-0 · AVR 44.4
26p
#78Home
South Florida
0-0 · AVR 47.2
31p
TULN 37%63% USF
Spread
USF -4.7
Total
57
Moneyline
TULN+172USF-172
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← TULN advantageevenUSF advantage →
TULN throw
TULN QB #139TULN WR #63
USF +6
TULN run
TULN backs #82
TULN +15
USF throw
USF QB #111USF protection #14
USF +4
USF run
USF backs #74
USF +41

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Bradford
Ethan Green
vs
Derrick Shepard Jr.
LT · USF
EDGE · TULN
97.0
57.2
USF +40
when USF throws
Mudia Reuben
vs
Macho Stevenson
X · USF
CB1 · TULN
56.0
81.9
TULN +26
off the edge· hunting Chriss-Gremillion
John Bock II
vs
Jahari Grant
LT · TULN
EDGE · USF
70.5
65.2
TULN +5
when TULN throws
Anthony Brown-Stephens
vs
Tavin Ward
X · TULN
CB1 · USF
59.8
70.7
USF +11
when TULN runs
Jamauri McClure
vs
MarShon Oxley
RB · TULN
MLB · USF
55.6
73.7
USF +18
when USF runs
Alvon Isaac
vs
Chris Rodgers
RB · USF
MLB · TULN
60.0
68.3
TULN +8

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Tulane
CBMacho Stevenson
81.971/1427
LBChris Rodgers
68.3172/878
SDorion Jackson
66.4324/1427
TEDawson Johnson
61.242/287
WRAnthony Brown-Stephens
59.8117/777
DBKajuan Banks
59.7492/1427
South Florida
LBMarShon Oxley
73.7114/878
STavin Ward
70.7218/1427
LBShamar Meikle
67.0191/878
CBJair Murphy
65.9337/1427
TEEvan Dangler
60.651/287
RBAlvon Isaac
60.0109/514

Common opponents

3 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Tulane
opponent
South Florida
home-3.9
UTSA#62
-6.6away
home-0.9
Memphis#63
+1.4home
away+5.3
Army#118
+7.5away

Projected margin

80% between -13 and 23
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKUSF +4.795% interval: -19.9 to 29.380% interval: -13.2 to 22.6-13+23TULN wins 37%USF wins 63%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ USF 32–25 TULNUSF 28–49 TULN neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUSF 32–46 TULN neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUSF 35–42 TULN neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUSF 39–39 TULN neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUSF 42–35 TULN neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUSF 46–32 TULN neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUSF 49–28 TULN neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUSF 53–25 TULN neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUSF 56–21 TULN neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUSF 25–46 TULN neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUSF 28–42 TULN neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUSF 32–39 TULN neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUSF 35–35 TULN neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesUSF 39–32 TULN neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesUSF 42–28 TULN neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUSF 46–25 TULN neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUSF 49–21 TULN neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUSF 53–18 TULN neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUSF 21–42 TULN neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUSF 25–39 TULN neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUSF 28–35 TULN neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesUSF 32–32 TULN neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesUSF 35–28 TULN neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesUSF 39–25 TULN neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesUSF 42–21 TULN neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUSF 46–18 TULN neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUSF 49–14 TULN neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUSF 18–39 TULN neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUSF 21–35 TULN neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUSF 25–32 TULN neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesUSF 28–28 TULN neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesUSF 32–25 TULN neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesUSF 35–21 TULN neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesUSF 39–18 TULN neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUSF 42–14 TULN neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUSF 46–11 TULN neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUSF 14–35 TULN neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUSF 18–32 TULN neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUSF 21–28 TULN neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUSF 25–25 TULN neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesUSF 28–21 TULN neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesUSF 32–18 TULN neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUSF 35–14 TULN neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUSF 39–11 TULN neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUSF 42–7 TULN neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUSF 11–32 TULN neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUSF 14–28 TULN neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUSF 18–25 TULN neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUSF 21–21 TULN neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUSF 25–18 TULN neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesUSF 28–14 TULN neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUSF 32–11 TULN neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUSF 35–7 TULN neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUSF 39–4 TULN neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUSF 7–28 TULN neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUSF 11–25 TULN neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUSF 14–21 TULN neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUSF 18–18 TULN neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUSF 21–14 TULN neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUSF 25–11 TULN neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUSF 28–7 TULN neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUSF 32–4 TULN neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUSF 35–0 TULN neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomes77706356494235totalTULN +21TULN +7USF +7USF +21USF +35margin →