AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 13 · Sat Nov 28 · 8:30 PM
#89Away
Jacksonville State
0-1 · AVR 43.6
30p
#102Home
Delaware
0-0 · AVR 39.0
27p
JXST 57%43% DEL
Spread
JXST -2.6
Total
57
Moneyline
JXST-132DEL+132
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← JXST advantageevenDEL advantage →
JXST throw
JXST +30
JXST run
JXST backs #119
DEL +16
DEL throw
DEL QB #6DEL protection #64
DEL +14
DEL run
even

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when DEL throws
Sean Wilson
vs
Rob Billings IV
X · DEL
CB1 · JXST
68.2
79.4
JXST +11
when DEL runs
Jo Silver
vs
Walker O'Steen
RB · DEL
MLB · JXST
66.9
73.0
JXST +6
off the edge· hunting Creel
Jeremiah Orr
vs
Trace Scott III
LT · JXST
EDGE · DEL
65.3
72.8
DEL +7
when JXST throws
Deondre Johnson
vs
KT Seay
X · JXST
CB1 · DEL
71.0
64.1
JXST +7
when JXST runs
Lucas Farrington
vs
Gavin Moul
RB · JXST
MLB · DEL
49.7
80.0
DEL +30
off the edge· hunting Minicucci
Steven Demboski
vs
Khurtiss Perry
LT · DEL
EDGE · JXST
50.6
74.3
JXST +24

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Jacksonville State
SRob Billings IV
79.496/1427
CBTre'Quon Fegans
74.5158/1427
LBWalker O'Steen
73.0118/878
LBMorven Joseph
72.1121/878
SCaleb Nix
71.9193/1427
WRDeondre Johnson
71.048/777
Delaware
QBNick Minicucci
88.66/308
LBGavin Moul
80.055/878
LBBlake Matthews
68.7165/878
WRSean Wilson
68.264/777
RBJo Silver
66.969/514
SKT Seay
64.1383/1427

Common opponents

6 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Jacksonville State
opponent
Delaware
home+11.6
Middle Tennessee#124
+1.4away
home+7.2
Florida International#109
+2.0home
away-6.0
Western Kentucky#75
-11.2away
away+3.9
Kennesaw State#105
-1.2away
away+10.1
New Mexico State#130
+5.0away
home+13.4
Missouri State#125
+8.3home

Projected margin

80% between -21 and 15
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKJXST +2.695% interval: -27.2 to 2280% interval: -20.5 to 15.3-20+15JXST wins 57%DEL wins 43%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ DEL 28–28 JXSTDEL 25–53 JXST neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesDEL 28–49 JXST neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesDEL 32–46 JXST neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesDEL 35–42 JXST neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesDEL 39–39 JXST neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesDEL 42–35 JXST neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesDEL 46–32 JXST neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesDEL 49–28 JXST neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesDEL 53–25 JXST neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesDEL 21–49 JXST neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesDEL 25–46 JXST neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesDEL 28–42 JXST neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesDEL 32–39 JXST neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesDEL 35–35 JXST neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesDEL 39–32 JXST neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesDEL 42–28 JXST neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesDEL 46–25 JXST neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesDEL 49–21 JXST neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesDEL 18–46 JXST neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesDEL 21–42 JXST neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesDEL 25–39 JXST neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesDEL 28–35 JXST neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesDEL 32–32 JXST neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesDEL 35–28 JXST neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesDEL 39–25 JXST neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesDEL 42–21 JXST neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesDEL 46–18 JXST neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesDEL 14–42 JXST neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesDEL 18–39 JXST neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesDEL 21–35 JXST neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesDEL 25–32 JXST neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesDEL 28–28 JXST neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesDEL 32–25 JXST neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesDEL 35–21 JXST neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesDEL 39–18 JXST neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesDEL 42–14 JXST neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesDEL 11–39 JXST neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesDEL 14–35 JXST neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesDEL 18–32 JXST neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesDEL 21–28 JXST neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesDEL 25–25 JXST neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesDEL 28–21 JXST neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesDEL 32–18 JXST neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesDEL 35–14 JXST neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesDEL 39–11 JXST neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesDEL 7–35 JXST neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesDEL 11–32 JXST neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesDEL 14–28 JXST neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesDEL 18–25 JXST neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesDEL 21–21 JXST neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesDEL 25–18 JXST neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesDEL 28–14 JXST neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesDEL 32–11 JXST neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesDEL 35–7 JXST neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesDEL 4–32 JXST neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesDEL 7–28 JXST neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesDEL 11–25 JXST neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesDEL 14–21 JXST neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesDEL 18–18 JXST neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesDEL 21–14 JXST neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesDEL 25–11 JXST neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesDEL 28–7 JXST neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesDEL 32–4 JXST neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomes77706356494235totalJXST +28JXST +14PKDEL +14DEL +28margin →