AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 13 · Sat Nov 28 · 5:00 AM
#118Away
Army
0-0 · AVR 32.8
26p
#127Home
Rice
0-0 · AVR 28.9
26p
ARMY 50%50% RICE
Spread
ARMY -0.2
Total
52
Moneyline
ARMY-101RICE+101
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← ARMY advantageevenRICE advantage →
ARMY throw
ARMY protection #8
ARMY +45
ARMY run
ARMY line #8ARMY backs #113
ARMY +40
RICE throw
even
RICE run
RICE backs #76
RICE +15

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Hellums
Kyle Kloska
vs
Chibby Nwajuaku
LT · ARMY
EDGE · RICE
85.4
62.7
ARMY +23
when ARMY throws
Brady Anderson
vs
Ahran Ogbor
X · ARMY
CB1 · RICE
60.0
55.9
ARMY +4
when RICE runs
Quinton Jackson
vs
Isaiah Birl
RB · RICE
MLB · ARMY
65.9
42.8
RICE +23
when RICE throws
Davis Lane
vs
Stephen Nnadozie
X · RICE
CB1 · ARMY
48.3
59.7
ARMY +11
when ARMY runs
Carson Smith
vs
Stone Combs
RB · ARMY
MLB · RICE
51.4
55.5
RICE +4
over the middle
Parker Poloskey
vs
Daveon Hook
TE · ARMY
FS · RICE
54.8
36.2
ARMY +19

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Army
QBCale Hellums
64.257/308
WRBrady Anderson
60.0114/777
SStephen Nnadozie
59.7495/1427
TEParker Poloskey
54.892/287
CBJaydan Mayes
52.8682/1427
RBCarson Smith
51.4255/514
Rice
RBQuinton Jackson
65.971/514
SAhran Ogbor
55.9595/1427
LBStone Combs
55.5381/878
QBGael Ochoa
52.6129/308
WRDavis Lane
48.3364/777
LBAustin Harnetiaux
41.9637/878

Common opponents

5 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Army
opponent
Rice
home-6.7
East Carolina#77
-14.4away
home-0.5
Florida Atlantic#108
-8.1away
home-5.3
Tulane#88
-8.0home
away-4.8
Temple#113
-7.4away
away-4.4
Tulsa#110
-2.1home

Projected margin

80% between -18 and 18
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKARMY +0.295% interval: -24.7 to 24.480% interval: -18 to 17.7-18+18ARMY wins 50%RICE wins 50%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ RICE 25–25 ARMYRICE 21–49 ARMY neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesRICE 25–46 ARMY neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesRICE 28–42 ARMY neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesRICE 32–39 ARMY neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesRICE 35–35 ARMY neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesRICE 39–32 ARMY neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesRICE 42–28 ARMY neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesRICE 46–25 ARMY neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesRICE 49–21 ARMY neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesRICE 18–46 ARMY neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesRICE 21–42 ARMY neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesRICE 25–39 ARMY neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesRICE 28–35 ARMY neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesRICE 32–32 ARMY neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesRICE 35–28 ARMY neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesRICE 39–25 ARMY neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesRICE 42–21 ARMY neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesRICE 46–18 ARMY neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesRICE 14–42 ARMY neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesRICE 18–39 ARMY neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesRICE 21–35 ARMY neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesRICE 25–32 ARMY neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesRICE 28–28 ARMY neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesRICE 32–25 ARMY neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesRICE 35–21 ARMY neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesRICE 39–18 ARMY neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesRICE 42–14 ARMY neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesRICE 11–39 ARMY neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesRICE 14–35 ARMY neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesRICE 18–32 ARMY neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesRICE 21–28 ARMY neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesRICE 25–25 ARMY neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesRICE 28–21 ARMY neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesRICE 32–18 ARMY neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesRICE 35–14 ARMY neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesRICE 39–11 ARMY neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesRICE 7–35 ARMY neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesRICE 11–32 ARMY neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesRICE 14–28 ARMY neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesRICE 18–25 ARMY neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesRICE 21–21 ARMY neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesRICE 25–18 ARMY neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesRICE 28–14 ARMY neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesRICE 32–11 ARMY neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesRICE 35–7 ARMY neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesRICE 4–32 ARMY neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesRICE 7–28 ARMY neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesRICE 11–25 ARMY neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesRICE 14–21 ARMY neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesRICE 18–18 ARMY neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesRICE 21–14 ARMY neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesRICE 25–11 ARMY neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesRICE 28–7 ARMY neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesRICE 32–4 ARMY neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesRICE 0–28 ARMY neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesRICE 4–25 ARMY neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesRICE 7–21 ARMY neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesRICE 11–18 ARMY neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesRICE 14–14 ARMY neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesRICE 18–11 ARMY neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesRICE 21–7 ARMY neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesRICE 25–4 ARMY neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesRICE 28–0 ARMY neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomes70635649423528totalARMY +28ARMY +14PKRICE +14RICE +28margin →