AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 13 · Sat Nov 28 · 5:00 PM
The Game
#13Away
Michigan
0-0 · AVR 73.3
18p
#1Home
Ohio State
0-0 · AVR 85.7
33p
MICH 15%85% OSU
Spread
OSU -15.2
Total
50
Moneyline
MICH+567OSU-567
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← MICH advantageevenOSU advantage →
MICH throw
MICH +23
MICH run
MICH +9
OSU throw
OSU +11
OSU run
MICH linebackers #95
OSU +26

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Sayin
Austin Siereveld
vs
John Henry Daley
LT · OSU
EDGE · MICH
81.7
107.8
MICH +26
when OSU throws
Jeremiah Smith
vs
Smith Snowden
X · OSU
CB1 · MICH
96.0
88.1
OSU +8
off the edge· hunting Underwood
Nathan Efobi
vs
Kenyatta Jackson Jr.
LT · MICH
EDGE · OSU
88.1
95.4
OSU +7
when MICH runs
Jordan Marshall
vs
Christian Alliegro
RB · MICH
MLB · OSU
80.1
79.4
dead even
when MICH throws
Andrew Marsh
vs
Jermaine Mathews Jr.
X · MICH
CB1 · OSU
84.8
69.4
MICH +15
when OSU runs
Bo Jackson
vs
Troy Bowles
RB · OSU
MLB · MICH
84.6
65.7
OSU +19

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Michigan
CBSmith Snowden
88.120/1427
WRAndrew Marsh
84.815/777
QBBryce Underwood
84.012/308
WRJJ Buchanan
82.318/777
CBJyaire Hill
80.687/1427
RBJordan Marshall
80.122/514

also out — QB (QB), Former Michigan sacks leader, RB (RB), Ace Hamilton (OL), Andrew Babalola (OL), Freshman Lineman (OL), Michigan Football Freshman Lineman (OL), Michigan freshman +5 more

Ohio State
WRJeremiah Smith
96.01/777
QBJulian Sayin
86.67/308
RBBo Jackson
84.68/514
LBChristian Alliegro
79.461/878
CBJermaine Mathews Jr.
69.4253/1427
LBPayton Pierce
67.8180/878

also out — Legend Bey (RB), Ohio State OL

Common opponents

3 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Michigan
opponent
Ohio State
away-12.7
Oregon#2
+5.0home
home+1.2
Indiana#7
+8.9away
home+7.5
Iowa#22
+15.2away

Projected margin

80% between -3 and 33
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKOSU +15.295% interval: -9.4 to 39.880% interval: -2.7 to 33.1-3+33MICH wins 15%OSU wins 85%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ OSU 32–18 MICHOSU 28–42 MICH neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesOSU 32–39 MICH neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesOSU 35–35 MICH neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesOSU 39–32 MICH neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesOSU 42–28 MICH neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesOSU 46–25 MICH neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesOSU 49–21 MICH neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesOSU 53–18 MICH neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesOSU 56–14 MICH neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesOSU 25–39 MICH neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesOSU 28–35 MICH neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesOSU 32–32 MICH neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesOSU 35–28 MICH neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesOSU 39–25 MICH neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesOSU 42–21 MICH neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesOSU 46–18 MICH neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesOSU 49–14 MICH neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesOSU 53–11 MICH neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesOSU 21–35 MICH neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesOSU 25–32 MICH neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesOSU 28–28 MICH neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesOSU 32–25 MICH neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesOSU 35–21 MICH neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesOSU 39–18 MICH neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesOSU 42–14 MICH neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesOSU 46–11 MICH neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesOSU 49–7 MICH neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesOSU 18–32 MICH neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesOSU 21–28 MICH neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesOSU 25–25 MICH neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesOSU 28–21 MICH neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesOSU 32–18 MICH neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesOSU 35–14 MICH neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesOSU 39–11 MICH neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesOSU 42–7 MICH neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesOSU 46–4 MICH neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesOSU 14–28 MICH neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesOSU 18–25 MICH neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesOSU 21–21 MICH neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesOSU 25–18 MICH neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesOSU 28–14 MICH neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesOSU 32–11 MICH neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesOSU 35–7 MICH neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesOSU 39–4 MICH neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesOSU 42–0 MICH neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesOSU 11–25 MICH neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesOSU 14–21 MICH neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesOSU 18–18 MICH neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesOSU 21–14 MICH neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesOSU 25–11 MICH neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesOSU 28–7 MICH neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesOSU 32–4 MICH neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesOSU 35–0 MICH neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)OSU 7–21 MICH neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesOSU 11–18 MICH neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesOSU 14–14 MICH neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesOSU 18–11 MICH neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesOSU 21–7 MICH neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesOSU 25–4 MICH neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesOSU 28–0 MICH neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)70635649423528totalMICH +14PKOSU +14OSU +28OSU +42margin →