CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 13 · Sat Nov 28 · 12:00 PM ET
The Game
Forecast win probability
MICH 10.4%89.6% OSU
Projected margin
OSU by 19.4
Projected total
49
80% outcome range
OSU 1 to OSU 38
Win probability
OSU 89.6%

Current team profiles

Michigan
Ohio State

When Michigan has the ball

Passing

OSU defense
Higher-ranked profile
MICH offense
#74
OSU defense
#11
EPA comparison
0.21
#74
-0.09
#11
Pass EPA

Rushing

OSU defense
Higher-ranked profile
MICH offense
#93
OSU defense
#18
EPA comparison
0.04
#93
-0.10
#18
Rush EPA

Drive success

OSU defense
Higher-ranked profile
MICH offense
#83
OSU defense
#16
Success rates
42%
#83
34%
#16
Success rate
More metrics
0.09
#93
-0.10
#7
EPA / play
1.15
#109
1.16
#35
Explosiveness
16%
#102
19%
#27
Havoc

When Ohio State has the ball

Passing

OSU offense
Higher-ranked profile
MICH defense
#6
OSU offense
#4
EPA comparison
-0.11
#6
0.60
#4
Pass EPA

Rushing

MICH defense
Higher-ranked profile
MICH defense
#12
OSU offense
#63
EPA comparison
-0.14
#12
0.12
#63
Rush EPA

Drive success

MICH defense
Higher-ranked profile
MICH defense
#7
OSU offense
#10
Success rates
33%
#7
51%
#10
Success rate
More metrics
-0.12
#6
0.31
#13
EPA / play
1.14
#30
1.29
#35
Explosiveness
17%
#49
13%
#31
Havoc

Current key players

Michigan
QBTommy Carr
23 yds · 1 TD · 0 INT
91.111/729
WRJJ Buchanan
24 rec · 446 yds · 4 TD
87.417/2069
LBNathaniel Staehling
25 tkl · 2.5 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
84.3
Coverage
71.7
Pressures
5
Pass-rush snaps
18
Missed tackles
5
Forced fumbles
0
81.963/1796
CBJyaire Hill
25 tkl · 0 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
66.0
Coverage
81.3
Targets allowed
11
Rec allowed
7
Yards allowed
69
Passer rating allowed
73.7
Missed tackles
4
78.583/2969
LBMax Alford
5 tkl · 1.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
82.5
Coverage
61.6
Pressures
0
Pass-rush snaps
2
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
0
77.3130/1796
SJacob Oden
2 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
69.2
Coverage
71.0
Targets allowed
1
Rec allowed
1
Yards allowed
-3
Passer rating allowed
79.2
Missed tackles
0
74.8201/2969
Availability reports · 3
  • Andrew Sprague · OGout · 2026-09-26

    Sprague is sidelined due to an undisclosed injury, and is not expected to play against the Hawkeyes on Saturday.

  • John Henry Daley · DLQues. · 2026-09-28

    Daley is dealing with a lower body injury, and it is unclear if he will suit up against the Minnesota on Tuesday.

  • Logan Forbes · WRQues. · 2026-09-20

    Forbes is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will face Iowa on Saturday.

Ohio State
QBJulian Sayin
1530 yds · 13 TD · 1 INT
92.06/729
WRJeremiah Smith
44 rec · 823 yds · 9 TD
94.91/2069
LBTarvos Alford
12 tkl · 1.5 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
83.1
Coverage
88.3
Pressures
0
Pass-rush snaps
8
Missed tackles
1
Forced fumbles
0
89.715/1796
LBRiley Pettijohn
18 tkl · 4.0 TFL · 2.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
75.9
Coverage
91.1
Pressures
4
Pass-rush snaps
29
Missed tackles
1
Forced fumbles
0
88.419/1796
RBJa'Kobi Jackson
278 yds · 6 TD · 6.2 YPC
81.658/1044
SJaylen McClain
20 tkl · 4 PD · 2 INT
Player detail
Run defense
77.7
Coverage
79.2
Targets allowed
8
Rec allowed
3
Yards allowed
40
Passer rating allowed
14.6
Missed tackles
0
79.371/2969
Availability reports · 3
  • Legend Bey · RBQues. · 2026-10-11

    Bey is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will suit up against Hoosiers on Saturday October 17th.

  • Bennett Christian · TEQues. · 2026-10-11

    Bennett is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will suit up against Hoosiers on Saturday October 17th.

  • Amari Valerio-Hudson · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Valerio-Hudson is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will suit up against Hoosiers on Saturday October 17th.

Position units

Position-unit comparison

MICH
OSU
vs
Offense
91.1
#10 of 138
QB
92.0
#6 of 138
67.4
#132 of 138
RB
79.7
#37 of 138
72.0
#59 of 138
WR
77.3
#23 of 138
62.1
#105 of 138
TE
62.8
#104 of 138
73.6
#24 of 138
OL
71.2
#44 of 138
Defense
80.6
#14 of 138
DL
77.8
#26 of 138
78.0
#36 of 138
LB
85.6
#3 of 138
74.6
#39 of 138
DB
74.4
#42 of 138
Common opponents

Common opponents

Michigan
opponent
Ohio State
A-14.1
ORE#8
+8.0H
H-1.0
IOWA#20
+17.0A
H-9.6
IU#5
+1.9A