AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 13 · Sat Nov 28 · 2:00 AM
#66Away
West Virginia
0-0 · AVR 50.2
17p
#16Home
Utah
0-0 · AVR 71.8
37p
WVU 9%91% UTAH
Spread
UTAH -20.2
Total
55
Moneyline
WVU+1066UTAH-1066
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← WVU advantageevenUTAH advantage →
WVU throw
UTAH +39
WVU run
WVU line #79WVU backs #2
WVU +5
UTAH throw
WVU coverage #117WVU pass rush #27
UTAH +39
UTAH run
UTAH +16

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Dampier
Zereoue Williams
vs
Harper Holloman
LT · UTAH
EDGE · WVU
87.1
86.1
dead even
when UTAH runs
Wayshawn Parker
vs
Ben Cutter
RB · UTAH
MLB · WVU
84.7
75.6
UTAH +9
when WVU throws
John Neider
vs
Jackson Bennee
X · WVU
CB1 · UTAH
66.6
90.2
UTAH +24
when UTAH throws
Braden Pegan
vs
Kamari Wilson
X · UTAH
CB1 · WVU
82.5
71.8
UTAH +11
off the edge· hunting Jr.
Cam Griffin
vs
Ethan Day
LT · WVU
EDGE · UTAH
63.6
88.6
UTAH +25
when WVU runs
Cam Cook
vs
Johnathan Hall
RB · WVU
MLB · UTAH
82.0
65.5
WVU +17

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
West Virginia
RBCam Cook
82.017/514
LBBen Cutter
75.6100/878
SKamari Wilson
71.8194/1427
WRJohn Neider
66.675/777
LBMalachi Hood
64.6220/878
QBScotty Fox Jr.
54.898/308

also out — Landon Drum (WR), Lawrence Autry (RB)

Utah
SJackson Bennee
90.211/1427
RBWayshawn Parker
84.77/514
QBDevon Dampier
83.813/308
WRBraden Pegan
82.517/777
CBElijah Reed
81.083/1427
CBRock Caldwell
77.9116/1427

also out — Kingston Stroshine (LB)

Common opponents

6 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
West Virginia
opponent
Utah
away-11.5
TCU#32
+6.2away
home-2.8
Kansas#50
+14.9home
home-4.6
Houston#36
+13.1home
away-6.9
Iowa State#56
+10.7away
home-9.9
Arizona#26
+2.8away
home-1.5
Cincinnati#51
+11.2away

Projected margin

80% between 2 and 38
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKUTAH +20.295% interval: -4.4 to 44.780% interval: 2.3 to 38+2+38WVU wins 9%UTAH wins 91%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ UTAH 39–18 WVUUTAH 35–42 WVU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUTAH 39–39 WVU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUTAH 42–35 WVU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUTAH 46–32 WVU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUTAH 49–28 WVU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUTAH 53–25 WVU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUTAH 56–21 WVU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUTAH 60–18 WVU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUTAH 63–14 WVU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUTAH 32–39 WVU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUTAH 35–35 WVU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUTAH 39–32 WVU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUTAH 42–28 WVU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesUTAH 46–25 WVU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesUTAH 49–21 WVU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesUTAH 53–18 WVU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesUTAH 56–14 WVU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUTAH 60–11 WVU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUTAH 28–35 WVU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUTAH 32–32 WVU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUTAH 35–28 WVU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUTAH 39–25 WVU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesUTAH 42–21 WVU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesUTAH 46–18 WVU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesUTAH 49–14 WVU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUTAH 53–11 WVU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUTAH 56–7 WVU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUTAH 25–32 WVU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUTAH 28–28 WVU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUTAH 32–25 WVU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUTAH 35–21 WVU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesUTAH 39–18 WVU neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesUTAH 42–14 WVU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesUTAH 46–11 WVU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUTAH 49–7 WVU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUTAH 53–4 WVU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUTAH 21–28 WVU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUTAH 25–25 WVU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUTAH 28–21 WVU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUTAH 32–18 WVU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesUTAH 35–14 WVU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesUTAH 39–11 WVU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesUTAH 42–7 WVU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUTAH 46–4 WVU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUTAH 49–0 WVU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUTAH 18–25 WVU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUTAH 21–21 WVU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUTAH 25–18 WVU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUTAH 28–14 WVU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesUTAH 32–11 WVU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesUTAH 35–7 WVU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesUTAH 39–4 WVU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUTAH 42–0 WVU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)UTAH 14–21 WVU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUTAH 18–18 WVU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUTAH 21–14 WVU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesUTAH 25–11 WVU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUTAH 28–7 WVU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUTAH 32–4 WVU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUTAH 35–0 WVU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)77706356494235totalWVU +7UTAH +7UTAH +21UTAH +35UTAH +49margin →