AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 13 · Sat Nov 28 · 5:00 AM
#79Away
Boston College
0-0 · AVR 46.7
16p
#6Home
Miami
0-0 · AVR 77.0
40p
BC 5%95% MIA
Spread
MIA -24.2
Total
56
Moneyline
BC+1928MIA-1928
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← BC advantageevenMIA advantage →
BC throw
MIA +45
BC run
MIA +29
MIA throw
MIA +56
MIA run
MIA +39

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Mensah
Samson Okunlola
vs
Josiah Griffin
LT · MIA
EDGE · BC
87.5
75.6
MIA +12
when MIA throws
Cooper Barkate
vs
Kameron Howard
X · MIA
CB1 · BC
87.0
75.7
MIA +11
when BC runs
Evan Dickens
vs
Kamal Bonner
RB · BC
MLB · MIA
79.5
82.9
MIA +3
when MIA runs
Mark Fletcher Jr.
vs
Bodie Kahoun
RB · MIA
MLB · BC
84.5
75.5
MIA +9
off the edge· pass rush vs protection
Reggie Jackson
vs
Damon Wilson II
LT · BC
EDGE · MIA
62.7
93.8
MIA +31
over the middle
Kaelan Chudzinski
vs
Zechariah Poyser
TE · BC
FS · MIA
63.6
77.9
MIA +14

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Boston College
RBEvan Dickens
79.525/514
DBKameron Howard
75.7148/1427
LBBodie Kahoun
75.5101/878
LBJustin Medlock
69.6151/878
TEKaelan Chudzinski
63.628/287
LBPalaie Faoa
57.4340/878
Miami
WRCooper Barkate
87.06/777
DBXavier Lucas
85.442/1427
RBMark Fletcher Jr.
84.59/514
QBDarian Mensah
84.311/308
DBBryce Fitzgerald
83.561/1427
LBKamal Bonner
82.935/878

also out — Hayden Lowe, Luka Gilbert, Jontavius Wyman

Common opponents

5 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Boston College
opponent
Miami
away-10.3
Duke#39
+16.4home
home-7.4
Pittsburgh#33
+14.2home
home-11.6
Florida State#30
+10.0home
away-29.8
Notre Dame#4
-8.2away
home-1.4
Virginia Tech#57
+20.2home

Projected margin

80% between 6 and 42
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKMIA +24.295% interval: -0.4 to 48.780% interval: 6.3 to 42+6+42BC wins 5%MIA wins 95%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ MIA 39–18 BCMIA 35–42 BC neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesMIA 39–39 BC neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesMIA 42–35 BC neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesMIA 46–32 BC neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesMIA 49–28 BC neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesMIA 53–25 BC neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesMIA 56–21 BC neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesMIA 60–18 BC neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesMIA 63–14 BC neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMIA 32–39 BC neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesMIA 35–35 BC neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesMIA 39–32 BC neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesMIA 42–28 BC neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesMIA 46–25 BC neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesMIA 49–21 BC neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesMIA 53–18 BC neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesMIA 56–14 BC neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesMIA 60–11 BC neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesMIA 28–35 BC neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesMIA 32–32 BC neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesMIA 35–28 BC neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesMIA 39–25 BC neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesMIA 42–21 BC neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesMIA 46–18 BC neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesMIA 49–14 BC neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesMIA 53–11 BC neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesMIA 56–7 BC neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesMIA 25–32 BC neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMIA 28–28 BC neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesMIA 32–25 BC neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesMIA 35–21 BC neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesMIA 39–18 BC neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesMIA 42–14 BC neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesMIA 46–11 BC neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesMIA 49–7 BC neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesMIA 53–4 BC neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesMIA 21–28 BC neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesMIA 25–25 BC neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesMIA 28–21 BC neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesMIA 32–18 BC neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesMIA 35–14 BC neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesMIA 39–11 BC neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesMIA 42–7 BC neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesMIA 46–4 BC neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesMIA 49–0 BC neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesMIA 18–25 BC neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesMIA 21–21 BC neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesMIA 25–18 BC neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesMIA 28–14 BC neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesMIA 32–11 BC neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesMIA 35–7 BC neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesMIA 39–4 BC neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesMIA 42–0 BC neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)MIA 14–21 BC neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesMIA 18–18 BC neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesMIA 21–14 BC neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesMIA 25–11 BC neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesMIA 28–7 BC neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesMIA 32–4 BC neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesMIA 35–0 BC neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)77706356494235totalBC +7MIA +7MIA +21MIA +35MIA +49margin →