CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 13 · Sat Nov 28 · 12:00 AM ET
Forecast win probability
BC 2.5%97.5% MIA
Projected margin
MIA by 30.4
Projected total
54
80% outcome range
MIA 12 to MIA 49
Win probability
MIA 97.5%

Current team profiles

Boston College
Miami

When Boston College has the ball

Passing

MIA defense
Higher-ranked profile
BC offense
#114
MIA defense
#30
EPA comparison
0.07
#114
0.02
#30
Pass EPA

Rushing

MIA defense
Higher-ranked profile
BC offense
#100
MIA defense
#10
EPA comparison
0.03
#100
-0.15
#10
Rush EPA

Drive success

MIA defense
Higher-ranked profile
BC offense
#114
MIA defense
#16
Success rates
39%
#114
34%
#16
Success rate
More metrics
0.00
#122
-0.06
#19
EPA / play
1.25
#57
1.19
#53
Explosiveness
20%
#133
16%
#70
Havoc

When Miami has the ball

Passing

MIA offense
Higher-ranked profile
BC defense
#69
MIA offense
#1
EPA comparison
0.14
#69
0.74
#1
Pass EPA

Rushing

MIA offense
Higher-ranked profile
BC defense
#52
MIA offense
#51
EPA comparison
0.01
#52
0.15
#51
Rush EPA

Drive success

MIA offense
Higher-ranked profile
BC defense
#52
MIA offense
#1
Success rates
39%
#52
56%
#1
Success rate
More metrics
0.02
#49
0.42
#1
EPA / play
1.26
#88
1.26
#55
Explosiveness
18%
#31
8%
#3
Havoc

Current key players

Boston College
QBMason McKenzie
967 yds · 5 TD · 5 INT
67.1194/729
RBMekhi Dodd
32 yds · 0 TD · 16.0 YPC
78.0109/1044
LBAnthony Palano
43 tkl · 6.0 TFL · 1.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
74.1
Coverage
72.3
Pressures
5
Pass-rush snaps
29
Missed tackles
7
Forced fumbles
0
73.8228/1796
WRLandon Wright
5 rec · 91 yds · 0 TD
72.7175/2069
DBMarcelous Townsend
1 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
67.0
Coverage
66.0
Targets allowed
0
Rec allowed
0
Yards allowed
0
Missed tackles
0
70.9390/2969
DBCameron Martinez
1 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
60.4
Coverage
70.9
Targets allowed
1
Rec allowed
0
Yards allowed
0
Passer rating allowed
39.6
Missed tackles
0
70.6405/2969
Availability reports · 3
  • Bo MacCormack III · RBout · 2026-09-19

    MacCormack III is dealing with an shoulder injury, and he will miss an extended period.

  • Brady Clough · TEout · 2026-10-02

    Clough has been out of the lineup due to undisclosed injury, and he will be not available against SMU on Saturday.

  • Reed Swanson · WRprobable · 2026-09-24

    Swanson is managing with a Undisclosed injury , but it is expected to play against the Virginia Tech on Saturday.

Miami
QBDarian Mensah
1438 yds · 15 TD · 0 INT
92.82/729
WRMalachi Toney
39 rec · 604 yds · 6 TD
93.03/2069
RBCharMar Brown
97 yds · 1 TD · 7.5 YPC
84.840/1044
TEJack Nickel
— rec · — yds · — TD
Player detail
Run blocking
80.9
Penalties
0
84.014/1017
DBEthan O'Connor
16 tkl · 2 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
59.2
Coverage
86.8
Targets allowed
18
Rec allowed
10
Yards allowed
65
Passer rating allowed
40.3
Missed tackles
4
83.930/2969
DBBryce Fitzgerald
13 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
70.5
Coverage
80.3
Targets allowed
16
Rec allowed
9
Yards allowed
75
Passer rating allowed
68.5
Missed tackles
2
79.372/2969
Availability reports · 5
  • CharMar Brown · RBout · 2026-09-21

    Brown is dealing with a lower body injury, and he has been shut down for the remainder of the season.

  • Joshua Moore · WRout · 2026-09-21

    Moore is battling with an upper body injury, and he will be idle for the remainder of the season.

  • Owen Ruskavich · TEout · 2026-10-01

    Ruskavich is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and he is not expected to face against Clemson on Saturday.

  • Luka Gilbert · TEout · 2026-08-11

    Gilbert has been out of commission due to an undisclosed injury, and he will be idle for the remainder of the season

  • Mark Fletcher Jr. · RBQues. · 2026-09-27

    Fletcher Jr is hampered by upper body injury, and it has yet to be established if he will be active against Clemson on Saturday, October 3th

Position units

Position-unit comparison

BC
MIA
vs
Offense
67.1
#114 of 138
QB
92.8
#2 of 138
69.8
#120 of 138
RB
83.8
#16 of 138
69.2
#90 of 138
WR
80.8
#8 of 138
52.0
#137 of 138
TE
84.0
#14 of 138
59.6
#133 of 138
OL
77.6
#7 of 138
Defense
69.0
#116 of 138
DL
72.6
#76 of 138
67.1
#125 of 138
LB
71.0
#97 of 138
70.1
#96 of 138
DB
77.2
#14 of 138
Common opponents

Common opponents

Boston College
opponent
Miami
A-19.5
DUKE#34
+13.6H
H-7.0
VT#46
+22.1H
H-11.7
PITT#30
+16.1H
H-17.3
FSU#49
+10.5H
A-33.4
ND#1
-5.6A