AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 11 · Sat Nov 14 · 5:00 AM
#14Away
Ole Miss
0-0 · AVR 73.1
25p
#11Home
Oklahoma
0-0 · AVR 74.3
28p
MISS 43%57% OU
Spread
OU -2.3
Total
53
Moneyline
MISS+131OU-131
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← MISS advantageevenOU advantage →
MISS throw
MISS protection #58
OU +15
MISS run
MISS backs #11
OU +27
OU throw
even
OU run
MISS +16

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when MISS runs
Kewan Lacy
vs
Kip Lewis
RB · MISS
MLB · OU
90.1
92.3
dead even
off the edge· hunting Mateer
Caleb Nitta
vs
Jonathan Maldonado
LT · OU
EDGE · MISS
74.3
92.7
MISS +18
off the edge· hunting Chambliss
Tommy Kinsler IV
vs
Taylor Wein
LT · MISS
EDGE · OU
65.2
96.5
OU +31
when MISS throws
Deuce Alexander
vs
Peyton Bowen
X · MISS
CB1 · OU
68.4
86.1
OU +18
when OU throws
Parker Livingstone
vs
Antonio Kite
X · OU
CB1 · MISS
71.1
78.2
MISS +7
when OU runs
Lloyd Avant
vs
Suntarine Perkins
RB · OU
MLB · MISS
62.3
78.6
MISS +16

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Ole Miss
QBTrinidad Chambliss
98.71/308
RBKewan Lacy
90.11/514
LBSuntarine Perkins
78.670/878
CBAntonio Kite
78.2110/1427
CBCedrick Beavers
72.4185/1427
WRDeuce Alexander
68.463/777
Oklahoma
LBKip Lewis
92.36/878
LBOwen Heinecke
91.78/878
DBPeyton Bowen
86.134/1427
DBEli Bowenprobable
83.063/1427
DBCourtland Guillory
82.468/1427
QBJohn Mateerprobable
71.835/308

also out — Michael Fasusi, Jaren Kanak (TE), Oklahoma OL (OL), Maikkula (C), Jake Maikkula (OL)

Common opponents

5 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Ole Miss
opponent
Oklahoma
home-6.8
Georgia#3
-12.0away
home+7.6
Missouri#24
+2.5away
home+15.1
Mississippi State#45
+10.0away
away-5.9
Texas#9
-3.5neutral
away+2.8
Florida#25
+2.6away

Projected margin

80% between -15 and 20
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKOU +2.395% interval: -21.6 to 26.280% interval: -15 to 19.7-15+20MISS wins 43%OU wins 57%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ OU 28–28 MISSOU 25–53 MISS neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesOU 28–49 MISS neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesOU 32–46 MISS neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesOU 35–42 MISS neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesOU 39–39 MISS neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesOU 42–35 MISS neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesOU 46–32 MISS neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesOU 49–28 MISS neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesOU 53–25 MISS neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesOU 21–49 MISS neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesOU 25–46 MISS neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesOU 28–42 MISS neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesOU 32–39 MISS neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesOU 35–35 MISS neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesOU 39–32 MISS neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesOU 42–28 MISS neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesOU 46–25 MISS neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesOU 49–21 MISS neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesOU 18–46 MISS neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesOU 21–42 MISS neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesOU 25–39 MISS neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesOU 28–35 MISS neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesOU 32–32 MISS neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesOU 35–28 MISS neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesOU 39–25 MISS neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesOU 42–21 MISS neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesOU 46–18 MISS neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesOU 14–42 MISS neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesOU 18–39 MISS neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesOU 21–35 MISS neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesOU 25–32 MISS neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesOU 28–28 MISS neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesOU 32–25 MISS neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesOU 35–21 MISS neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesOU 39–18 MISS neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesOU 42–14 MISS neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesOU 11–39 MISS neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesOU 14–35 MISS neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesOU 18–32 MISS neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesOU 21–28 MISS neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesOU 25–25 MISS neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesOU 28–21 MISS neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesOU 32–18 MISS neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesOU 35–14 MISS neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesOU 39–11 MISS neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesOU 7–35 MISS neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesOU 11–32 MISS neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesOU 14–28 MISS neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesOU 18–25 MISS neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesOU 21–21 MISS neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesOU 25–18 MISS neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesOU 28–14 MISS neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesOU 32–11 MISS neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesOU 35–7 MISS neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesOU 4–32 MISS neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesOU 7–28 MISS neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesOU 11–25 MISS neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesOU 14–21 MISS neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesOU 18–18 MISS neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesOU 21–14 MISS neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesOU 25–11 MISS neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesOU 28–7 MISS neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesOU 32–4 MISS neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomes77706356494235totalMISS +28MISS +14PKOU +14OU +28margin →