AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 2 · Sat Sep 12 · 11:45 PM
#135Away
Charlotte
0-0 · AVR 23.3
9p
#14Home
Ole Miss
0-0 · AVR 73.1
48p
CLT 0%100% MISS
Spread
MISS -38.9
Total
57
Moneyline
CLT—MISS—
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← CLT advantageevenMISS advantage →
CLT throw
MISS +54
CLT run
MISS +64
MISS throw
MISS protection #58
MISS +61
MISS run
MISS backs #11
MISS +55

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when MISS runs
Kewan Lacy
vs
Kadin Schmitz
RB · MISS
MLB · CLT
90.1
46.6
MISS +43
when CLT throws
Jaden Barnes
vs
Antonio Kite
X · CLT
CB1 · MISS
56.9
78.2
MISS +21
when MISS throws
Deuce Alexander
vs
Shamar McIntosh
X · MISS
CB1 · CLT
68.4
64.5
MISS +4
when CLT runs
Chance Williams
vs
Suntarine Perkins
RB · CLT
MLB · MISS
51.5
78.6
MISS +27
off the edge· hunting Chambliss
Tommy Kinsler IV
vs
Curtis Simpson
LT · MISS
EDGE · CLT
65.2
57.5
MISS +8
off the edge· hunting Gonzales
Luke Sandy
vs
Jonathan Maldonado
LT · CLT
EDGE · MISS
27.2
92.7
MISS +65

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Charlotte
DBShamar McIntosh
64.5373/1427
WRJaden Barnes
56.9144/777
DBJameel Croft Jr.
53.9652/1427
RBChance Williams
51.5252/514
WRTank Boston
49.1337/777
QBCole Gonzales
48.2182/308
Ole Miss
QBTrinidad Chambliss
98.71/308
RBKewan Lacy
90.11/514
LBSuntarine Perkins
78.670/878
CBAntonio Kite
78.2110/1427
CBCedrick Beavers
72.4185/1427
WRDeuce Alexander
68.463/777

Projected margin

80% between 22 and 56
-7-3+3+7+14PKMISS +38.995% interval: 14.9 to 62.880% interval: 21.5 to 56.2+22+56CLT wins 0%MISS wins 100%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ MISS 49–7 CLTMISS 46–32 CLT neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesMISS 49–28 CLT neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesMISS 53–25 CLT neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesMISS 56–21 CLT neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesMISS 60–18 CLT neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesMISS 63–14 CLT neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesMISS 67–11 CLT neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesMISS 70–7 CLT neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesMISS 74–4 CLT neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesMISS 42–28 CLT neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesMISS 46–25 CLT neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesMISS 49–21 CLT neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesMISS 53–18 CLT neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesMISS 56–14 CLT neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesMISS 60–11 CLT neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesMISS 63–7 CLT neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesMISS 67–4 CLT neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesMISS 70–0 CLT neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesMISS 39–25 CLT neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesMISS 42–21 CLT neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesMISS 46–18 CLT neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesMISS 49–14 CLT neighborhood · ~3.7% of outcomesMISS 53–11 CLT neighborhood · ~3.7% of outcomesMISS 56–7 CLT neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesMISS 60–4 CLT neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesMISS 63–0 CLT neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)MISS 35–21 CLT neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesMISS 39–18 CLT neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesMISS 42–14 CLT neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesMISS 46–11 CLT neighborhood · ~3.8% of outcomesMISS 49–7 CLT neighborhood · ~3.9% of outcomesMISS 53–4 CLT neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesMISS 56–0 CLT neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)MISS 32–18 CLT neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesMISS 35–14 CLT neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesMISS 39–11 CLT neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesMISS 42–7 CLT neighborhood · ~3.6% of outcomesMISS 46–4 CLT neighborhood · ~3.6% of outcomesMISS 49–0 CLT neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)MISS 28–14 CLT neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesMISS 32–11 CLT neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesMISS 35–7 CLT neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesMISS 39–4 CLT neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesMISS 42–0 CLT neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)MISS 25–11 CLT neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesMISS 28–7 CLT neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesMISS 32–4 CLT neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesMISS 35–0 CLT neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)77706356494235totalMISS +14MISS +28MISS +42MISS +56MISS +70margin →