AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 9 · Sat Oct 31 · 4:00 AM
#31Away
Auburn
0-0 · AVR 62.1
21p
#14Home
Ole Miss
0-0 · AVR 73.1
33p
AUB 21%79% MISS
Spread
MISS -11.5
Total
54
Moneyline
AUB+367MISS-367
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← AUB advantageevenMISS advantage →
AUB throw
AUB protection #51
AUB +5
AUB run
even
MISS throw
MISS protection #58AUB pass rush #18
MISS +16
MISS run
MISS backs #11
AUB +20

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when MISS runs
Kewan Lacy
vs
Xavier Atkins
RB · MISS
MLB · AUB
90.1
93.4
AUB +3
when AUB throws
Keshaun Singleton
vs
Antonio Kite
X · AUB
CB1 · MISS
86.7
78.2
AUB +9
when AUB runs
Jeremiah Cobb
vs
Suntarine Perkins
RB · AUB
MLB · MISS
78.7
78.6
dead even
off the edge· hunting Chambliss
Tommy Kinsler IV
vs
Cody Sigler
LT · MISS
EDGE · AUB
65.2
92.0
AUB +27
off the edge· hunting Brown
Jacob Strand
vs
Jonathan Maldonado
LT · AUB
EDGE · MISS
53.1
92.7
MISS +40
when MISS throws
Deuce Alexander
vs
Fred Gaskin III
X · MISS
CB1 · AUB
68.4
66.3
dead even

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Auburn
LBXavier Atkins
93.44/878
WRKeshaun Singleton
86.79/777
WRJeremiah Koger
83.116/777
QBByrum Brown
81.319/308
RBJeremiah Cobb
78.729/514
LBColeman Granberry
78.082/878

also out — Fly, Tai Buster (OL), tight end (TE), Auburn Linebacker Likely, Auburn edge rusher (DL), Auburn linebacker (LB), J.J. Faulk (EDGE), Auburn RB (RB) +3 more

Ole Miss
QBTrinidad Chambliss
98.71/308
RBKewan Lacy
90.11/514
LBSuntarine Perkins
78.670/878
CBAntonio Kite
78.2110/1427
CBCedrick Beavers
72.4185/1427
WRDeuce Alexander
68.463/777

Common opponents

5 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Auburn
opponent
Ole Miss
away-20.8
Georgia#3
-6.8home
away+1.1
Mississippi State#45
+15.1home
home-1.6
LSU#20
+7.4home
home-1.2
Florida#25
+2.8away
home-1.9
Vanderbilt#23
+2.1away

Projected margin

80% between -6 and 29
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKMISS +11.595% interval: -12.4 to 35.480% interval: -5.9 to 28.9-6+29AUB wins 21%MISS wins 79%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ MISS 35–21 AUBMISS 32–46 AUB neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMISS 35–42 AUB neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesMISS 39–39 AUB neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesMISS 42–35 AUB neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesMISS 46–32 AUB neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesMISS 49–28 AUB neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesMISS 53–25 AUB neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesMISS 56–21 AUB neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesMISS 60–18 AUB neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesMISS 28–42 AUB neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesMISS 32–39 AUB neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesMISS 35–35 AUB neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesMISS 39–32 AUB neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesMISS 42–28 AUB neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesMISS 46–25 AUB neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesMISS 49–21 AUB neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesMISS 53–18 AUB neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesMISS 56–14 AUB neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesMISS 25–39 AUB neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesMISS 28–35 AUB neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesMISS 32–32 AUB neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesMISS 35–28 AUB neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesMISS 39–25 AUB neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesMISS 42–21 AUB neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesMISS 46–18 AUB neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesMISS 49–14 AUB neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesMISS 53–11 AUB neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMISS 21–35 AUB neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesMISS 25–32 AUB neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesMISS 28–28 AUB neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesMISS 32–25 AUB neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesMISS 35–21 AUB neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesMISS 39–18 AUB neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesMISS 42–14 AUB neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesMISS 46–11 AUB neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesMISS 49–7 AUB neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMISS 18–32 AUB neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesMISS 21–28 AUB neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesMISS 25–25 AUB neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesMISS 28–21 AUB neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesMISS 32–18 AUB neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesMISS 35–14 AUB neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesMISS 39–11 AUB neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesMISS 42–7 AUB neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesMISS 46–4 AUB neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMISS 14–28 AUB neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesMISS 18–25 AUB neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesMISS 21–21 AUB neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesMISS 25–18 AUB neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesMISS 28–14 AUB neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesMISS 32–11 AUB neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesMISS 35–7 AUB neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesMISS 39–4 AUB neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesMISS 42–0 AUB neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesMISS 11–25 AUB neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMISS 14–21 AUB neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesMISS 18–18 AUB neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesMISS 21–14 AUB neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesMISS 25–11 AUB neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesMISS 28–7 AUB neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesMISS 32–4 AUB neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesMISS 35–0 AUB neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)77706356494235totalAUB +14PKMISS +14MISS +28MISS +42margin →