AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 10 · Sat Nov 7 · 5:00 AM
#3Away
Georgia
0-0 · AVR 80.0
32p
#14Home
Ole Miss
0-0 · AVR 73.1
25p
UGA 68%32% MISS
Spread
UGA -6.8
Total
57
Moneyline
UGA-212MISS+212
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← UGA advantageevenMISS advantage →
UGA throw
even
UGA run
even
MISS throw
MISS protection #58UGA pass rush #88
MISS +16
MISS run
MISS backs #11UGA front #88
even

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when MISS runs
Kewan Lacy
vs
Chris Cole
RB · MISS
MLB · UGA
90.1
85.5
MISS +5
when UGA runs
Nate Frazier
vs
Suntarine Perkins
RB · UGA
MLB · MISS
81.1
78.6
dead even
off the edge· hunting Stockton
Drew Bobo
vs
Jonathan Maldonado
LT · UGA
EDGE · MISS
63.4
92.7
MISS +29
when MISS throws
Deuce Alexander
vs
KJ Bolden
X · MISS
CB1 · UGA
68.4
81.2
UGA +13
when UGA throws
Isiah Canion
vs
Antonio Kite
X · UGA
CB1 · MISS
63.4
78.2
MISS +15
over the middle
Luke Hasz
vs
Ja'Marley Riddle
TE · MISS
FS · UGA
59.5
70.8
UGA +11

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Georgia
LBChris Cole
85.521/878
LBRaylen Wilson
84.324/878
QBGunner Stockton
81.718/308
DBKJ Bolden
81.280/1427
RBNate Frazier
81.119/514
SKhalil Barnes
74.0164/1427

also out — unknown, Dante Dowdell (RB), Kirby Smart (RB), AJC.com (DB), Former Georgia Bulldogs OL (OL), Drew Bobo (C), Carter Loflin (OL)

Ole Miss
QBTrinidad Chambliss
98.71/308
RBKewan Lacy
90.11/514
LBSuntarine Perkins
78.670/878
CBAntonio Kite
78.2110/1427
CBCedrick Beavers
72.4185/1427
WRDeuce Alexander
68.463/777

Common opponents

5 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Georgia
opponent
Ole Miss
home+12.0
Oklahoma#11
-2.3away
home+16.4
Vanderbilt#23
+2.1away
neutral+14.6
Florida#25
+2.8away
home+20.8
Auburn#31
+11.5home
home+16.9
Missouri#24
+7.6home

Projected margin

80% between -24 and 11
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKUGA +6.895% interval: -30.7 to 17.180% interval: -24.2 to 10.6-24+11UGA wins 68%MISS wins 32%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ UGA 32–25 MISSMISS 21–56 UGA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMISS 25–53 UGA neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesMISS 28–49 UGA neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesMISS 32–46 UGA neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesMISS 35–42 UGA neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesMISS 39–39 UGA neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesMISS 42–35 UGA neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesMISS 46–32 UGA neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesMISS 49–28 UGA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMISS 18–53 UGA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMISS 21–49 UGA neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesMISS 25–46 UGA neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesMISS 28–42 UGA neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesMISS 32–39 UGA neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesMISS 35–35 UGA neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesMISS 39–32 UGA neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesMISS 42–28 UGA neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesMISS 46–25 UGA neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMISS 14–49 UGA neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMISS 18–46 UGA neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesMISS 21–42 UGA neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesMISS 25–39 UGA neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesMISS 28–35 UGA neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesMISS 32–32 UGA neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesMISS 35–28 UGA neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesMISS 39–25 UGA neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesMISS 42–21 UGA neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMISS 11–46 UGA neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMISS 14–42 UGA neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesMISS 18–39 UGA neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesMISS 21–35 UGA neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesMISS 25–32 UGA neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesMISS 28–28 UGA neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesMISS 32–25 UGA neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesMISS 35–21 UGA neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesMISS 39–18 UGA neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMISS 7–42 UGA neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMISS 11–39 UGA neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesMISS 14–35 UGA neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesMISS 18–32 UGA neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesMISS 21–28 UGA neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesMISS 25–25 UGA neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesMISS 28–21 UGA neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesMISS 32–18 UGA neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesMISS 35–14 UGA neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMISS 4–39 UGA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMISS 7–35 UGA neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesMISS 11–32 UGA neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesMISS 14–28 UGA neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesMISS 18–25 UGA neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesMISS 21–21 UGA neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesMISS 25–18 UGA neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesMISS 28–14 UGA neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesMISS 32–11 UGA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMISS 0–35 UGA neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesMISS 4–32 UGA neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesMISS 7–28 UGA neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesMISS 11–25 UGA neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesMISS 14–21 UGA neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesMISS 18–18 UGA neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesMISS 21–14 UGA neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesMISS 25–11 UGA neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesMISS 28–7 UGA neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomes77706356494235totalUGA +35UGA +21UGA +7MISS +7MISS +21margin →