AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 3 · Sat Sep 19 · 11:30 PM
Magnolia Bowl Trophy
#20Away
LSU
0-0 · AVR 68.3
23p
#14Home
Ole Miss
0-0 · AVR 73.1
30p
LSU 31%69% MISS
Spread
MISS -7.4
Total
54
Moneyline
LSU+227MISS-227
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← LSU advantageevenMISS advantage →
LSU throw
LSU WR #5LSU protection #111
MISS +17
LSU run
LSU line #111LSU backs #60
MISS +46
MISS throw
MISS protection #58
LSU +13
MISS run
MISS backs #11
LSU +7

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Chambliss
Tommy Kinsler IV
vs
Princewill Umanmielen
LT · MISS
EDGE · LSU
65.2
99.9
LSU +35
when LSU throws
Tre' Brown
vs
Antonio Kite
X · LSU
CB1 · MISS
86.3
78.2
LSU +8
when MISS throws
Deuce Alexander
vs
DJ Pickett
X · MISS
CB1 · LSU
68.4
93.7
LSU +25
when MISS runs
Kewan Lacy
vs
TJ Dottery
RB · MISS
MLB · LSU
90.1
69.2
MISS +21
when LSU runs
Caden Durham
vs
Suntarine Perkins
RB · LSU
MLB · MISS
61.0
78.6
MISS +18
over the middle
Luke Hasz
vs
Ty Benefield
TE · MISS
FS · LSU
59.5
79.0
LSU +19

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
LSU
CBDJ Pickettprobable
93.75/1427
CBPJ Woodland
88.818/1427
SDashawn Spears
87.324/1427
WRTre' Brown
86.311/777
WRWinston Watkins Jr.
71.444/777
LBTJ Dottery
69.2159/878

also out — projected offensive starter, Jamal Adams (CB), Former LSU football star, Decision Means Losing, Daniels Finally Speaks, Malik Nabers (WR)

Ole Miss
QBTrinidad Chambliss
98.71/308
RBKewan Lacy
90.11/514
LBSuntarine Perkins
78.670/878
CBAntonio Kite
78.2110/1427
CBCedrick Beavers
72.4185/1427
WRDeuce Alexander
68.463/777

Common opponents

3 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
LSU
opponent
Ole Miss
away+1.6
Auburn#31
+11.5home
home+10.3
Mississippi State#45
+15.1home
home-5.7
Texas#9
-5.9away

Projected margin

80% between -10 and 25
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKMISS +7.495% interval: -16.5 to 31.380% interval: -10 to 24.7-10+25LSU wins 31%MISS wins 69%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ MISS 32–25 LSUMISS 28–49 LSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesMISS 32–46 LSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesMISS 35–42 LSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesMISS 39–39 LSU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesMISS 42–35 LSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesMISS 46–32 LSU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesMISS 49–28 LSU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesMISS 53–25 LSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesMISS 56–21 LSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesMISS 25–46 LSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMISS 28–42 LSU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesMISS 32–39 LSU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesMISS 35–35 LSU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesMISS 39–32 LSU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesMISS 42–28 LSU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesMISS 46–25 LSU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesMISS 49–21 LSU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesMISS 53–18 LSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMISS 21–42 LSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMISS 25–39 LSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesMISS 28–35 LSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesMISS 32–32 LSU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesMISS 35–28 LSU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesMISS 39–25 LSU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesMISS 42–21 LSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesMISS 46–18 LSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesMISS 49–14 LSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMISS 18–39 LSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMISS 21–35 LSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesMISS 25–32 LSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesMISS 28–28 LSU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesMISS 32–25 LSU neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesMISS 35–21 LSU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesMISS 39–18 LSU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesMISS 42–14 LSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesMISS 46–11 LSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesMISS 14–35 LSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMISS 18–32 LSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesMISS 21–28 LSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesMISS 25–25 LSU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesMISS 28–21 LSU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesMISS 32–18 LSU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesMISS 35–14 LSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesMISS 39–11 LSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesMISS 42–7 LSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesMISS 11–32 LSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMISS 14–28 LSU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesMISS 18–25 LSU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesMISS 21–21 LSU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesMISS 25–18 LSU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesMISS 28–14 LSU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesMISS 32–11 LSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesMISS 35–7 LSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesMISS 39–4 LSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMISS 7–28 LSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMISS 11–25 LSU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesMISS 14–21 LSU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesMISS 18–18 LSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesMISS 21–14 LSU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesMISS 25–11 LSU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesMISS 28–7 LSU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesMISS 32–4 LSU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesMISS 35–0 LSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomes77706356494235totalLSU +21LSU +7MISS +7MISS +21MISS +35margin →