CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 3 · Sat Sep 19 · 7:30 PM ET
Magnolia Bowl Trophy
#13Away
LSU
2-0 · AVR 74.8
24
Final
#22Home
Ole Miss
2-0 · AVR 72.1
32
Forecast win probability
LSU 66.6%33.4% MISS
Projected margin
LSU by 5.9
Projected total
53
80% outcome range
LSU 27 to MISS 13
Win probability
LSU 66.6%
FinalLSU 24 · MISS 32model had -5.9, off by 13.9

Current team profiles

LSU
Ole Miss

When LSU has the ball

Passing

LSU offense
Higher-ranked profile
LSU offense
#24
MISS defense
#98
EPA comparison
0.40
#24
0.25
#98
Pass EPA

Rushing

LSU offense
Higher-ranked profile
LSU offense
#42
MISS defense
#102
EPA comparison
0.17
#42
0.13
#102
Rush EPA

Drive success

LSU offense
Higher-ranked profile
LSU offense
#14
MISS defense
#114
Success rates
50%
#14
45%
#114
Success rate
More metrics
0.26
#27
0.15
#105
EPA / play
1.24
#62
1.17
#42
Explosiveness
16%
#88
16%
#65
Havoc

When Ole Miss has the ball

Passing

LSU defense
Higher-ranked profile
LSU defense
#3
MISS offense
#15
EPA comparison
-0.13
#3
0.45
#15
Pass EPA

Rushing

LSU defense
Higher-ranked profile
LSU defense
#29
MISS offense
#42
EPA comparison
-0.06
#29
0.17
#42
Rush EPA

Drive success

LSU defense
Higher-ranked profile
LSU defense
#3
MISS offense
#4
Success rates
32%
#3
53%
#4
Success rate
More metrics
-0.10
#10
0.27
#26
EPA / play
1.21
#67
1.13
#115
Explosiveness
21%
#8
13%
#37
Havoc

Current key players

LSU
QBSam Leavitt
1220 yds · 8 TD · 7 INT
84.150/729
LBTJ Dottery
30 tkl · 1.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
74.7
Coverage
90.5
Pressures
10
Pass-rush snaps
23
Missed tackles
3
Forced fumbles
2
90.211/1796
STamarcus Cooley
12 tkl · 2 PD · 2 INT
Player detail
Run defense
56.2
Coverage
90.6
Targets allowed
13
Rec allowed
7
Yards allowed
69
Passer rating allowed
29.5
Missed tackles
2
90.09/2969
LBTylen Singleton
8 tkl · 2.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
85.8
Coverage
71.3
Pressures
0
Pass-rush snaps
2
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
0
84.644/1796
WRCorey Barber Jr.
8 rec · 98 yds · 2 TD
77.090/2069
CBMichael Turner Jr.
4 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
57.0
Coverage
79.7
Targets allowed
3
Rec allowed
1
Yards allowed
6
Passer rating allowed
2.8
Missed tackles
1
76.0159/2969
Availability reports · 4
  • Phillip Wright III · WRout · 2026-09-21

    Wright III is hampered by an undisclosed injury, and he is likely to miss the remainder of the season.

  • Dashawn Spears · Sout · 2026-09-21

    Spears has been sidelined due to a torn ACL, and he is likely to miss the remainder of the season.

  • Trey'Dez Green · TEQues. · 2026-10-11

    Green is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will play against Bulldogs on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Raycine Guillory Jr. · RBQues. · 2026-10-11

    Guillory Jr. is battling with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear whether he will play against Bulldogs on Saturday, October 17th.

Ole Miss
QBTrinidad Chambliss
1222 yds · 8 TD · 3 INT
85.044/729
TECaleb Odom
13 rec · 201 yds · 1 TD
Player detail
Pass blocking
74.8
Run blocking
70.3
Penalties
1
79.427/1017
WRDeuce Alexander
27 rec · 429 yds · 4 TD
78.567/2069
WRDillon Alfred
1 rec · 34 yds · 0 TD
77.185/2069
RBKewan Lacy
191 yds · 4 TD · 4.9 YPC
76.0150/1044
CBDorian Barney
1 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
60.4
Coverage
72.2
Targets allowed
0
Rec allowed
0
Yards allowed
0
Missed tackles
0
73.5256/2969
Availability reports · 1
  • Izaiah Hartrup · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Hartrup is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against the Tigers on Saturday, October 17th.

Position units

Position-unit comparison

LSU
MISS
vs
Offense
84.1
#44 of 138
QB
85.0
#40 of 138
73.9
#84 of 138
RB
70.9
#114 of 138
74.8
#34 of 138
WR
77.1
#25 of 138
72.7
#48 of 138
TE
79.4
#26 of 138
68.5
#63 of 138
OL
64.5
#100 of 138
Defense
78.6
#19 of 138
DL
73.0
#71 of 138
84.5
#6 of 138
LB
71.2
#94 of 138
76.8
#20 of 138
DB
69.9
#99 of 138
Common opponents

Common opponents

LSU
opponent
Ole Miss
H-0.4
TEX#7
-8.0A
A+3.4
AUB#42
+6.4H
H+10.0
MSST#35
+7.6H