AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 4 · Sat Sep 26 · 4:00 AM
#14Away
Ole Miss
0-0 · AVR 73.1
29p
#25Home
Florida
0-0 · AVR 66.3
26p
MISS 58%42% FLA
Spread
MISS -2.8
Total
54
Moneyline
MISS-136FLA+136
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← MISS advantageevenFLA advantage →
MISS throw
MISS protection #58
MISS +13
MISS run
MISS backs #11
FLA +17
FLA throw
FLA QB #101FLA WR #33
MISS +29
FLA run
FLA +12

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when MISS runs
Kewan Lacy
vs
Myles Graham
RB · MISS
MLB · FLA
90.1
86.1
MISS +4
when FLA runs
Jadan Baugh
vs
Suntarine Perkins
RB · FLA
MLB · MISS
80.9
78.6
dead even
off the edge· hunting Chambliss
Tommy Kinsler IV
vs
Emmanuel Oyebadejo
LT · MISS
EDGE · FLA
65.2
90.7
FLA +25
when FLA throws
Vernell Brown III
vs
Antonio Kite
X · FLA
CB1 · MISS
71.4
78.2
MISS +7
when MISS throws
Deuce Alexander
vs
Bryce Thornton
X · MISS
CB1 · FLA
68.4
72.0
FLA +4
over the middle
Lacota Dippre
vs
Joenel Aguero
TE · FLA
FS · MISS
73.7
64.8
FLA +9

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Ole Miss
QBTrinidad Chambliss
98.71/308
RBKewan Lacy
90.11/514
LBSuntarine Perkins
78.670/878
CBAntonio Kite
78.2110/1427
CBCedrick Beavers
72.4185/1427
WRDeuce Alexander
68.463/777
Florida
LBMyles Graham
86.118/878
LBJayden Woods
82.837/878
RBJadan Baugh
80.921/514
TELacota Dippre
73.75/287
SBryce Thornton
72.0189/1427
WRVernell Brown III
71.445/777

also out — Graham Mertz

Common opponents

6 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Ole Miss
opponent
Florida
home+7.6
Missouri#24
-2.7away
home+11.5
Auburn#31
+1.2away
home-6.8
Georgia#3
-14.6neutral
away-5.9
Texas#9
-11.2away
away-2.3
Oklahoma#11
-2.6home
away+2.1
Vanderbilt#23
+1.8home

Projected margin

80% between -20 and 15
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKMISS +2.895% interval: -26.7 to 21.180% interval: -20.2 to 14.6-20+15MISS wins 58%FLA wins 42%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ FLA 28–28 MISSFLA 25–53 MISS neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesFLA 28–49 MISS neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesFLA 32–46 MISS neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesFLA 35–42 MISS neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesFLA 39–39 MISS neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesFLA 42–35 MISS neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesFLA 46–32 MISS neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesFLA 49–28 MISS neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesFLA 53–25 MISS neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesFLA 21–49 MISS neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesFLA 25–46 MISS neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesFLA 28–42 MISS neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesFLA 32–39 MISS neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesFLA 35–35 MISS neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesFLA 39–32 MISS neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesFLA 42–28 MISS neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesFLA 46–25 MISS neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesFLA 49–21 MISS neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesFLA 18–46 MISS neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesFLA 21–42 MISS neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesFLA 25–39 MISS neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesFLA 28–35 MISS neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesFLA 32–32 MISS neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesFLA 35–28 MISS neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesFLA 39–25 MISS neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesFLA 42–21 MISS neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesFLA 46–18 MISS neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesFLA 14–42 MISS neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesFLA 18–39 MISS neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesFLA 21–35 MISS neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesFLA 25–32 MISS neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesFLA 28–28 MISS neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesFLA 32–25 MISS neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesFLA 35–21 MISS neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesFLA 39–18 MISS neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesFLA 42–14 MISS neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesFLA 11–39 MISS neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesFLA 14–35 MISS neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesFLA 18–32 MISS neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesFLA 21–28 MISS neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesFLA 25–25 MISS neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesFLA 28–21 MISS neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesFLA 32–18 MISS neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesFLA 35–14 MISS neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesFLA 39–11 MISS neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesFLA 7–35 MISS neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesFLA 11–32 MISS neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesFLA 14–28 MISS neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesFLA 18–25 MISS neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesFLA 21–21 MISS neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesFLA 25–18 MISS neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesFLA 28–14 MISS neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesFLA 32–11 MISS neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesFLA 35–7 MISS neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesFLA 4–32 MISS neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesFLA 7–28 MISS neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesFLA 11–25 MISS neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesFLA 14–21 MISS neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesFLA 18–18 MISS neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesFLA 21–14 MISS neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesFLA 25–11 MISS neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesFLA 28–7 MISS neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesFLA 32–4 MISS neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomes77706356494235totalMISS +28MISS +14PKFLA +14FLA +28margin →