AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 1 · Sat Sep 5 · 12:45 PM
#128Away
Kent State
0-0 · AVR 27.2
10p
#29Home
South Carolina
0-0 · AVR 63.4
43p
KENT 1%99% SC
Spread
SC -32.7
Total
54
Moneyline
KENT—SC—
Against the market
KENT +3.8line SC -36.5

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← KENT advantageevenSC advantage →
KENT throw
KENT QB #55KENT protection #112
SC +35
KENT run
SC +67
SC throw
SC +39
SC run
SC +5

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when KENT runs
Jakorion Caffey
vs
Fred Johnson
RB · KENT
MLB · SC
53.3
78.4
SC +25
when SC throws
Nyck Harbor
vs
Davion Pritchard
X · SC
CB1 · KENT
61.5
59.4
dead even
when KENT throws
Da'Realyst Clark
vs
Vicari Swain
X · KENT
CB1 · SC
44.9
71.7
SC +27
off the edge· hunting DeShields
Dustyn Morell
vs
Dylan Stewart
LT · KENT
EDGE · SC
24.4
91.7
SC +67
over the middle
Terik Mulder
vs
Gerald Kilgore
TE · KENT
FS · SC
47.9
62.1
SC +14
when SC runs
Christian Clark
vs
Hayden Dawahare
RB · SC
MLB · KENT
53.4
53.9
dead even

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Kent State
QBDru DeShields
64.556/308
DBDavion Pritchard
59.4498/1427
LBHayden Dawahare
53.9407/878
RBJakorion Caffey
53.3196/514
SClinton Robinson
49.2795/1427
TETerik Mulder
47.9148/287
South Carolina
LBFred Johnson
78.473/878
LBJustin Okoronkwo
72.1123/878
DBVicari Swain
71.7197/1427
QBLaNorris Sellers
67.648/308
DBPeyton Williams
67.0308/1427
DBJalewis Solomon
62.1423/1427

also out — unknown (WR), J. Gibson (WR), J. Sellers (WR), Dylan Stewart (EDGE), Jacarrius Peak (OL)

Projected margin

80% between 14 and 50
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKSC +32.7MKT95% interval: 4 to 6080% interval: 14 to 50+14+50KENT wins 1%SC wins 99%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ SC 46–11 KENTSC 42–35 KENT neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesSC 46–32 KENT neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesSC 49–28 KENT neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesSC 53–25 KENT neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesSC 56–21 KENT neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesSC 60–18 KENT neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesSC 63–14 KENT neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesSC 67–11 KENT neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesSC 70–7 KENT neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesSC 39–32 KENT neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesSC 42–28 KENT neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesSC 46–25 KENT neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesSC 49–21 KENT neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesSC 53–18 KENT neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesSC 56–14 KENT neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesSC 60–11 KENT neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesSC 63–7 KENT neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesSC 67–4 KENT neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesSC 35–28 KENT neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesSC 39–25 KENT neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesSC 42–21 KENT neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesSC 46–18 KENT neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesSC 49–14 KENT neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesSC 53–11 KENT neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesSC 56–7 KENT neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesSC 60–4 KENT neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesSC 63–0 KENT neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesSC 32–25 KENT neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesSC 35–21 KENT neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesSC 39–18 KENT neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesSC 42–14 KENT neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesSC 46–11 KENT neighborhood · ~3.5% of outcomesSC 49–7 KENT neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesSC 53–4 KENT neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesSC 56–0 KENT neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)SC 28–21 KENT neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesSC 32–18 KENT neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesSC 35–14 KENT neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesSC 39–11 KENT neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesSC 42–7 KENT neighborhood · ~3.5% of outcomesSC 46–4 KENT neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesSC 49–0 KENT neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)SC 25–18 KENT neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesSC 28–14 KENT neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesSC 32–11 KENT neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesSC 35–7 KENT neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesSC 39–4 KENT neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesSC 42–0 KENT neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)SC 21–14 KENT neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesSC 25–11 KENT neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesSC 28–7 KENT neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesSC 32–4 KENT neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesSC 35–0 KENT neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)77706356494235totalSC +7SC +21SC +35SC +49SC +63margin →