AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 3 · Sat Sep 19 · 4:00 PM
#3Away
Georgia
0-0 · AVR 80.0
39p
#40Home
Arkansas
0-0 · AVR 58.2
20p
UGA 90%10% ARK
Spread
UGA -19.0
Total
60
Moneyline
UGA-912ARK+912
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← UGA advantageevenARK advantage →
UGA throw
UGA +17
UGA run
ARK linebackers #107
UGA +25
ARK throw
UGA pass rush #88
UGA +7
ARK run
UGA front #88UGA linebackers #4
UGA +8

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when UGA runs
Nate Frazier
vs
Ben Bogle
RB · UGA
MLB · ARK
81.1
77.0
UGA +4
when ARK runs
Sutton Smith
vs
Chris Cole
RB · ARK
MLB · UGA
68.8
85.5
UGA +17
over the middle
Jaden Platt
vs
Ja'Marley Riddle
TE · ARK
FS · UGA
78.6
70.8
ARK +8
off the edge· hunting Stockton
Drew Bobo
vs
Steven Soles Jr.
LT · UGA
EDGE · ARK
63.4
85.2
ARK +22
when ARK throws
Jamari Hawkins
vs
KJ Bolden
X · ARK
CB1 · UGA
56.7
81.2
UGA +24
when UGA throws
Isiah Canion
vs
Joker Johnson
X · UGA
CB1 · ARK
63.4
70.0
ARK +7

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Georgia
LBChris Cole
85.521/878
LBRaylen Wilson
84.324/878
QBGunner Stockton
81.718/308
DBKJ Bolden
81.280/1427
RBNate Frazier
81.119/514
SKhalil Barnes
74.0164/1427

also out — unknown, Dante Dowdell (RB), Kirby Smart (RB), AJC.com (DB), Former Georgia Bulldogs OL (OL), Drew Bobo (C), Carter Loflin (OL)

Arkansas
TEJaden Platt
78.63/287
LBBen Bogle
77.088/878
DBJoker Johnson
70.0239/1427
RBSutton Smith
68.861/514
DBLa'khi Roland
64.9358/1427
DBChristian Harrison
60.9459/1427

also out — M. Lassiter (TE)

Common opponents

4 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Georgia
opponent
Arkansas
home+16.4
Vanderbilt#23
-10.0away
home+20.8
Auburn#31
-5.6away
home+16.9
Missouri#24
-4.5home
away+12.9
South Carolina#29
-3.5home

Projected margin

80% between -36 and -2
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKUGA +19.095% interval: -42.9 to 4.980% interval: -36.3 to -1.6-36-2UGA wins 90%ARK wins 10%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ UGA 42–21 ARKARK 18–67 UGA neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesARK 21–63 UGA neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesARK 25–60 UGA neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesARK 28–56 UGA neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesARK 32–53 UGA neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesARK 35–49 UGA neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesARK 39–46 UGA neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesARK 42–42 UGA neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesARK 46–39 UGA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesARK 14–63 UGA neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesARK 18–60 UGA neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesARK 21–56 UGA neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesARK 25–53 UGA neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesARK 28–49 UGA neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesARK 32–46 UGA neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesARK 35–42 UGA neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesARK 39–39 UGA neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesARK 42–35 UGA neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesARK 11–60 UGA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesARK 14–56 UGA neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesARK 18–53 UGA neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesARK 21–49 UGA neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesARK 25–46 UGA neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesARK 28–42 UGA neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesARK 32–39 UGA neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesARK 35–35 UGA neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesARK 39–32 UGA neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesARK 7–56 UGA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesARK 11–53 UGA neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesARK 14–49 UGA neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesARK 18–46 UGA neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesARK 21–42 UGA neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesARK 25–39 UGA neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesARK 28–35 UGA neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesARK 32–32 UGA neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesARK 35–28 UGA neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesARK 4–53 UGA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesARK 7–49 UGA neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesARK 11–46 UGA neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesARK 14–42 UGA neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesARK 18–39 UGA neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesARK 21–35 UGA neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesARK 25–32 UGA neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesARK 28–28 UGA neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesARK 32–25 UGA neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesARK 0–49 UGA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesARK 4–46 UGA neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesARK 7–42 UGA neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesARK 11–39 UGA neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesARK 14–35 UGA neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesARK 18–32 UGA neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesARK 21–28 UGA neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesARK 25–25 UGA neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesARK 28–21 UGA neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)ARK 0–42 UGA neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesARK 4–39 UGA neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesARK 7–35 UGA neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesARK 11–32 UGA neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesARK 14–28 UGA neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesARK 18–25 UGA neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesARK 21–21 UGA neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesARK 25–18 UGA neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomes84777063564942totalUGA +49UGA +35UGA +21UGA +7ARK +7margin →