CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 4 · Sat Sep 26 · 8:00 PM ET
#82Away
Tulsa
3-0 · AVR 56.8
6
Final
#80Home
Arkansas
1-2 · AVR 57.4
34
Forecast win probability
TLSA 44.3%55.7% ARK
Projected margin
ARK by 2.1
Projected total
52
80% outcome range
TLSA 18 to ARK 21
Win probability
ARK 55.7%
FinalTLSA 6 · ARK 34model had +2.1, off by 25.9

Current team profiles

Tulsa
Arkansas

When Tulsa has the ball

Passing

ARK defense
Higher-ranked profile
TLSA offense
#108
ARK defense
#84
EPA comparison
0.09
#108
0.19
#84
Pass EPA

Rushing

TLSA offense
Higher-ranked profile
TLSA offense
#21
ARK defense
#125
EPA comparison
0.23
#21
0.20
#125
Rush EPA

Drive success

ARK defense
Higher-ranked profile
TLSA offense
#117
ARK defense
#100
Success rates
39%
#117
43%
#100
Success rate
More metrics
0.14
#74
0.17
#111
EPA / play
1.22
#78
1.16
#38
Explosiveness
15%
#69
13%
#111
Havoc

When Arkansas has the ball

Passing

TLSA defense
Higher-ranked profile
TLSA defense
#82
ARK offense
#88
EPA comparison
0.18
#82
0.14
#88
Pass EPA

Rushing

TLSA defense
Higher-ranked profile
TLSA defense
#41
ARK offense
#134
EPA comparison
-0.01
#41
-0.11
#134
Rush EPA

Drive success

TLSA defense
Higher-ranked profile
TLSA defense
#74
ARK offense
#96
Success rates
41%
#74
41%
#96
Success rate
More metrics
0.03
#54
0.01
#120
EPA / play
1.14
#29
1.08
#129
Explosiveness
13%
#116
19%
#126
Havoc

Current key players

Tulsa
QBDexter Williams II
340 yds · 3 TD · 0 INT
64.2222/729
RBSeth Davis
90 yds · 1 TD · 10.0 YPC
88.714/1044
TEJackson Shockley
1 rec · 22 yds · 1 TD
Player detail
Pass blocking
48.5
Run blocking
65.5
Penalties
0
87.18/1017
DBDevin Robinson
19 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
80.6
Coverage
76.0
Targets allowed
13
Rec allowed
7
Yards allowed
62
Passer rating allowed
92.5
Missed tackles
3
79.077/2969
LBDax Collins
39 tkl · 3.5 TFL · 2.5 sk
Player detail
Run defense
84.8
Coverage
58.3
Pressures
12
Pass-rush snaps
24
Missed tackles
3
Forced fumbles
0
76.7146/1796
CBCaldra Williford
16 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
73.4
Coverage
74.2
Targets allowed
5
Rec allowed
5
Yards allowed
65
Passer rating allowed
158.3
Missed tackles
2
75.4178/2969
Availability reports · 2
  • Jimmy Calloway · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Calloway is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it has yet to be established if he will be available against the Owls on Saturday, Octob

  • Grayson Tempest · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Tempest is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it has yet to be established if he will be available against the Owls on Saturday, Octobe

Arkansas
QBKJ Jackson
1038 yds · 6 TD · 4 INT
64.0225/729
WRChris Marshall
35 rec · 517 yds · 2 TD
81.246/2069
LBBen Bogle
36 tkl · 2.5 TFL · 1.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
85.7
Coverage
58.6
Pressures
1
Pass-rush snaps
11
Missed tackles
4
Forced fumbles
0
78.799/1796
DBShelton Lewis
13 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
62.7
Coverage
81.3
Targets allowed
7
Rec allowed
3
Yards allowed
45
Passer rating allowed
64.6
Missed tackles
1
78.584/2969
DBKhmori House
33 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
84.7
Coverage
68.2
Targets allowed
16
Rec allowed
14
Yards allowed
107
Passer rating allowed
94.5
Missed tackles
1
73.2266/2969
WRJelani Watkins
27 rush yds · 0 TD · 3 car
73.0164/2069
Availability reports · 2
  • Maddox Lassiter · TEout · 2026-08-16

    Lassiter has been shut down for the remainder of the season due to an upper body injury.

  • H. Hendrix · TEQues. · 2026-10-11

    Hendrix is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear whether he will play against Commodores on Saturday, October 17th.

Position units

Position-unit comparison

TLSA
ARK
vs
Offense
64.2
#121 of 138
QB
64.0
#122 of 138
84.4
#13 of 138
RB
67.0
#135 of 138
67.0
#120 of 138
WR
72.9
#50 of 138
87.1
#8 of 138
TE
61.8
#107 of 138
68.5
#64 of 138
OL
64.3
#102 of 138
Defense
73.1
#68 of 138
DL
72.4
#79 of 138
71.4
#93 of 138
LB
70.2
#103 of 138
74.5
#41 of 138
DB
70.2
#94 of 138
Common opponents