AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 4 · Sun Sep 27
#110Away
Tulsa
0-0 · AVR 35.4
20p
#40Home
Arkansas
0-0 · AVR 58.2
39p
TLSA 10%90% ARK
Spread
ARK -18.7
Total
58
Moneyline
TLSA+890ARK-890
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← TLSA advantageevenARK advantage →
TLSA throw
ARK +20
TLSA run
TLSA line #95TLSA backs #36
ARK +6
ARK throw
ARK +5
ARK run
ARK +5

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Hayes
Malachi Preciado
vs
Steven Soles Jr.
LT · TLSA
EDGE · ARK
69.1
85.2
ARK +16
when ARK runs
Sutton Smith
vs
Chris Thompson Jr.
RB · ARK
MLB · TLSA
68.8
78.3
TLSA +9
when TLSA runs
Trequan Jones
vs
Ben Bogle
RB · TLSA
MLB · ARK
69.0
77.0
ARK +8
over the middle
Jaden Platt
vs
Korbyn Green
TE · ARK
FS · TLSA
78.6
61.5
ARK +17
when ARK throws
Jamari Hawkins
vs
Elijah Green
X · ARK
CB1 · TLSA
56.7
72.9
TLSA +16
off the edge· hunting Jackson
Bryant Williams
vs
Thomas Davis
LT · ARK
EDGE · TLSA
45.4
79.7
TLSA +34

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Tulsa
LBChris Thompson Jr.
78.374/878
CBElijah Green
72.9178/1427
RBTrequan Jones
69.059/514
SZach Williams
62.2422/1427
DBDevin Robinson
62.1425/1427
LBDevin Hightower
58.9313/878
Arkansas
TEJaden Platt
78.63/287
LBBen Bogle
77.088/878
DBJoker Johnson
70.0239/1427
RBSutton Smith
68.861/514
DBLa'khi Roland
64.9358/1427
DBChristian Harrison
60.9459/1427

also out — M. Lassiter (TE)

Projected margin

80% between 1 and 36
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKARK +18.795% interval: -5.2 to 42.680% interval: 1.3 to 36.1+1+36TLSA wins 10%ARK wins 90%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ ARK 39–18 TLSAARK 35–42 TLSA neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesARK 39–39 TLSA neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesARK 42–35 TLSA neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesARK 46–32 TLSA neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesARK 49–28 TLSA neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesARK 53–25 TLSA neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesARK 56–21 TLSA neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesARK 60–18 TLSA neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesARK 63–14 TLSA neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesARK 32–39 TLSA neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesARK 35–35 TLSA neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesARK 39–32 TLSA neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesARK 42–28 TLSA neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesARK 46–25 TLSA neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesARK 49–21 TLSA neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesARK 53–18 TLSA neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesARK 56–14 TLSA neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesARK 60–11 TLSA neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesARK 28–35 TLSA neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesARK 32–32 TLSA neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesARK 35–28 TLSA neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesARK 39–25 TLSA neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesARK 42–21 TLSA neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesARK 46–18 TLSA neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesARK 49–14 TLSA neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesARK 53–11 TLSA neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesARK 56–7 TLSA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesARK 25–32 TLSA neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesARK 28–28 TLSA neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesARK 32–25 TLSA neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesARK 35–21 TLSA neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesARK 39–18 TLSA neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesARK 42–14 TLSA neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesARK 46–11 TLSA neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesARK 49–7 TLSA neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesARK 53–4 TLSA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesARK 21–28 TLSA neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesARK 25–25 TLSA neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesARK 28–21 TLSA neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesARK 32–18 TLSA neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesARK 35–14 TLSA neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesARK 39–11 TLSA neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesARK 42–7 TLSA neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesARK 46–4 TLSA neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesARK 49–0 TLSA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesARK 18–25 TLSA neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesARK 21–21 TLSA neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesARK 25–18 TLSA neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesARK 28–14 TLSA neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesARK 32–11 TLSA neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesARK 35–7 TLSA neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesARK 39–4 TLSA neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesARK 42–0 TLSA neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)ARK 14–21 TLSA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesARK 18–18 TLSA neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesARK 21–14 TLSA neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesARK 25–11 TLSA neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesARK 28–7 TLSA neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesARK 32–4 TLSA neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesARK 35–0 TLSA neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)77706356494235totalTLSA +7ARK +7ARK +21ARK +35ARK +49margin →