CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 5 · Sat Oct 3 · 4:15 PM ET
Forecast win probability
UK 47.6%52.4% SC
Projected margin
SC by 1.4
Projected total
52
80% outcome range
UK 18 to SC 22
Win probability
SC 52.4%
FinalUK 35 · SC 34model had +1.4, off by 2.4

Current team profiles

Kentucky
South Carolina

When Kentucky has the ball

Passing

UK offense
Higher-ranked profile
UK offense
#66
SC defense
#121
EPA comparison
0.24
#66
0.35
#121
Pass EPA

Rushing

UK offense
Higher-ranked profile
UK offense
#35
SC defense
#37
EPA comparison
0.19
#35
-0.03
#37
Rush EPA

Drive success

UK offense
Higher-ranked profile
UK offense
#20
SC defense
#74
Success rates
50%
#20
41%
#74
Success rate
More metrics
0.21
#43
0.13
#96
EPA / play
1.15
#106
1.27
#90
Explosiveness
13%
#39
14%
#101
Havoc

When South Carolina has the ball

Passing

UK defense
Higher-ranked profile
UK defense
#60
SC offense
#66
EPA comparison
0.11
#60
0.24
#66
Pass EPA

Rushing

SC offense
Higher-ranked profile
UK defense
#81
SC offense
#25
EPA comparison
0.06
#81
0.22
#25
Rush EPA

Drive success

SC offense
Higher-ranked profile
UK defense
#109
SC offense
#40
Success rates
44%
#109
47%
#40
Success rate
More metrics
0.04
#56
0.21
#42
EPA / play
1.17
#44
1.21
#83
Explosiveness
18%
#36
13%
#44
Havoc

Current key players

Kentucky
QBKenny Minchey
1148 yds · 11 TD · 1 INT
63.0239/729
RBJason Patterson
355 yds · 3 TD · 7.9 YPC
86.228/1044
WRKenny Darby
25 rec · 322 yds · 3 TD
81.147/2069
TEElijah Brown
— rec · — yds · — TD
Player detail
Pass blocking
66.8
Run blocking
78.1
Penalties
0
80.524/1017
LBAntwan Smith
4 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
79.9
Coverage
64.0
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
0
73.9220/1796
LBSam Greene
17 tkl · 0.5 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
78.3
Coverage
66.7
Pressures
6
Pass-rush snaps
68
Missed tackles
3
Forced fumbles
2
73.6234/1796
Availability reports · 2
  • Tovani Mizell · RBout · 2026-08-22

    Mizell is laid up with an undisclosed injury, and he is projected to miss the remainder of the season.

  • Lincoln Watkins · TEQues. · 2026-10-11

    Watkins is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it has yet to be established if he will be available against Sooners on Saturday, October

South Carolina
QBLaNorris Sellers
1059 yds · 8 TD · 4 INT
68.2180/729
DBKosci Barnes
— tkl · — PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
63.4
Coverage
91.8
Targets allowed
1
Rec allowed
0
Yards allowed
0
Passer rating allowed
0.0
Missed tackles
0
91.93/2969
RBIsaiah Augustave
114 yds · 2 TD · 8.1 YPC
87.421/1044
LBJamian Risher Jr.
3 tkl · 1.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
76.9
Coverage
66.6
Pressures
1
Pass-rush snaps
2
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
0
73.3249/1796
DBKendall Daniels Jr.
12 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
70.4
Coverage
70.9
Targets allowed
3
Rec allowed
1
Yards allowed
1
Passer rating allowed
42.4
Missed tackles
1
71.9333/2969
DBTriston Lewis
1 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
60.1
Coverage
72.6
Targets allowed
0
Rec allowed
0
Yards allowed
0
Missed tackles
0
71.7346/2969
Availability reports · 7
  • Dylan Stewart · DLout · 2026-09-20

    Stewart is dealing with a back injury, and he will miss an undetermined length of time.

  • Jayden Gibson · WRout · 2026-08-17

    Gibson is batting with a lower body injury, and he will be idle for the remainder of the season.

  • Jayden Sellers · WRout · 2026-08-17

    Sellers is fighting off a lower body injury, and he has been shut down for the remainder of the season.

  • Jacarrius Peak · OGQues. · 2026-10-08

    Peak is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against Florida on Saturday.

  • Gabriel Brownlow-Dindy · DLQues. · 2026-10-08

    Brownlow-Dindy is nursing with a upper body injury, and it is uncertain if he will play against Florida on Saturday.

  • Mazeo Bennett Jr. · WRQues. · 2026-10-09

    Bennett is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will suit up against the Florida on Saturday.

  • Lucian Anderson III · QBQues. · 2026-10-08

    Anderson III is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is uncertain if he will play against Florida on Saturday.

Position units

Position-unit comparison

UK
SC
vs
Offense
63.0
#126 of 138
QB
68.2
#110 of 138
81.1
#30 of 138
RB
84.0
#14 of 138
70.6
#75 of 138
WR
64.6
#132 of 138
80.5
#24 of 138
TE
68.6
#76 of 138
74.5
#20 of 138
OL
74.7
#19 of 138
Defense
71.6
#90 of 138
DL
78.9
#18 of 138
71.1
#95 of 138
LB
68.0
#121 of 138
70.3
#92 of 138
DB
75.2
#30 of 138
Common opponents

Common opponents

Kentucky
opponent
South Carolina
H-3.4
FLA#22
+19.0A
A+10.0
TA&M#28
-5.4H
A-15.5
TENN#21
-6.8H
A-12.0
OU#19
-8.6A
H-28.0
ALA#3
-31.0A