AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 5 · Sat Oct 3 · 4:00 AM
#67Away
Kentucky
0-0 · AVR 49.8
17p
#29Home
South Carolina
0-0 · AVR 63.4
33p
UK 14%86% SC
Spread
SC -16.1
Total
51
Moneyline
UK+623SC-623
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← UK advantageevenSC advantage →
UK throw
UK protection #32
SC +31
UK run
UK backs #105
SC +27
SC throw
UK pass rush #49
SC +18
SC run
UK +27

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Minchey
Coleton Price
vs
Dylan Stewart
LT · UK
EDGE · SC
85.1
91.7
SC +7
when SC throws
Nyck Harbor
vs
Jesse Anderson III
X · SC
CB1 · UK
61.5
70.2
UK +9
when UK runs
CJ Baxter
vs
Fred Johnson
RB · UK
MLB · SC
52.0
78.4
SC +26
when SC runs
Christian Clark
vs
Lorenzo Cowan
RB · SC
MLB · UK
53.4
66.0
UK +13
when UK throws
Nic Anderson
vs
Vicari Swain
X · UK
CB1 · SC
45.6
71.7
SC +26
over the middle
Willie Rodriguez
vs
Gerald Kilgore
TE · UK
FS · SC
51.2
62.1
SC +11

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Kentucky
DBJesse Anderson III
70.2234/1427
DBTy Bryant
68.1277/1427
LBLorenzo Cowan
66.0199/878
LBSam Greene
65.4207/878
QBKenny Minchey
53.8109/308
RBCJ Baxterprobable
52.0227/514

also out — T. Mizell (RB), Jovantae Barnes (RB)

South Carolina
LBFred Johnson
78.473/878
LBJustin Okoronkwo
72.1123/878
DBVicari Swain
71.7197/1427
QBLaNorris Sellers
67.648/308
DBPeyton Williams
67.0308/1427
DBJalewis Solomon
62.1423/1427

also out — unknown (WR), J. Gibson (WR), J. Sellers (WR), Dylan Stewart (EDGE), Jacarrius Peak (OL)

Common opponents

5 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Kentucky
opponent
South Carolina
away-26.5
Texas A&M#8
-8.0home
away-21.3
Tennessee#17
-2.8home
away-22.0
Oklahoma#11
-8.5away
home-11.9
Florida#25
-3.3away
home-18.4
Alabama#12
-9.8away

Projected margin

80% between -1 and 33
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKSC +16.195% interval: -7.9 to 4080% interval: -1.3 to 33.4-1+33UK wins 14%SC wins 86%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ SC 32–18 UKSC 28–42 UK neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesSC 32–39 UK neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesSC 35–35 UK neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesSC 39–32 UK neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesSC 42–28 UK neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesSC 46–25 UK neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesSC 49–21 UK neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesSC 53–18 UK neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesSC 56–14 UK neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesSC 25–39 UK neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesSC 28–35 UK neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesSC 32–32 UK neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesSC 35–28 UK neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesSC 39–25 UK neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesSC 42–21 UK neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesSC 46–18 UK neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesSC 49–14 UK neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesSC 53–11 UK neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesSC 21–35 UK neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesSC 25–32 UK neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesSC 28–28 UK neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesSC 32–25 UK neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesSC 35–21 UK neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesSC 39–18 UK neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesSC 42–14 UK neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesSC 46–11 UK neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesSC 49–7 UK neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesSC 18–32 UK neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesSC 21–28 UK neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesSC 25–25 UK neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesSC 28–21 UK neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesSC 32–18 UK neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesSC 35–14 UK neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesSC 39–11 UK neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesSC 42–7 UK neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesSC 46–4 UK neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesSC 14–28 UK neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesSC 18–25 UK neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesSC 21–21 UK neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesSC 25–18 UK neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesSC 28–14 UK neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesSC 32–11 UK neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesSC 35–7 UK neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesSC 39–4 UK neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesSC 42–0 UK neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesSC 11–25 UK neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesSC 14–21 UK neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesSC 18–18 UK neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesSC 21–14 UK neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesSC 25–11 UK neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesSC 28–7 UK neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesSC 32–4 UK neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesSC 35–0 UK neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)SC 7–21 UK neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesSC 11–18 UK neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesSC 14–14 UK neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesSC 18–11 UK neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesSC 21–7 UK neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesSC 25–4 UK neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesSC 28–0 UK neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)70635649423528totalUK +14PKSC +14SC +28SC +42margin →