AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 12 · Sat Nov 21 · 5:00 AM
#3Away
Georgia
0-0 · AVR 80.0
32p
#29Home
South Carolina
0-0 · AVR 63.4
19p
UGA 81%19% SC
Spread
UGA -12.9
Total
52
Moneyline
UGA-433SC+433
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← UGA advantageevenSC advantage →
UGA throw
UGA +6
UGA run
even
SC throw
UGA pass rush #88
even
SC run
UGA front #88UGA linebackers #4
UGA +34

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when UGA runs
Nate Frazier
vs
Fred Johnson
RB · UGA
MLB · SC
81.1
78.4
dead even
off the edge· hunting Stockton
Drew Bobo
vs
Dylan Stewart
LT · UGA
EDGE · SC
63.4
91.7
SC +28
when SC throws
Nyck Harbor
vs
KJ Bolden
X · SC
CB1 · UGA
61.5
81.2
UGA +20
when SC runs
Christian Clark
vs
Chris Cole
RB · SC
MLB · UGA
53.4
85.5
UGA +32
when UGA throws
Isiah Canion
vs
Vicari Swain
X · UGA
CB1 · SC
63.4
71.7
SC +8
over the middle
Elyiss Williams
vs
Gerald Kilgore
TE · UGA
FS · SC
62.4
62.1
dead even

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Georgia
LBChris Cole
85.521/878
LBRaylen Wilson
84.324/878
QBGunner Stockton
81.718/308
DBKJ Bolden
81.280/1427
RBNate Frazier
81.119/514
SKhalil Barnes
74.0164/1427

also out — unknown, Dante Dowdell (RB), Kirby Smart (RB), AJC.com (DB), Former Georgia Bulldogs OL (OL), Drew Bobo (C), Carter Loflin (OL)

South Carolina
LBFred Johnson
78.473/878
LBJustin Okoronkwo
72.1123/878
DBVicari Swain
71.7197/1427
QBLaNorris Sellers
67.648/308
DBPeyton Williams
67.0308/1427
DBJalewis Solomon
62.1423/1427

also out — unknown (WR), J. Gibson (WR), J. Sellers (WR), Dylan Stewart (EDGE), Jacarrius Peak (OL)

Common opponents

4 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Georgia
opponent
South Carolina
home+12.0
Oklahoma#11
-8.5away
neutral+14.6
Florida#25
-3.3away
away+19.0
Arkansas#40
+3.5away
away+5.6
Alabama#12
-9.8away

Projected margin

80% between -30 and 5
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKUGA +12.995% interval: -36.8 to 1180% interval: -30.3 to 4.5-30+5UGA wins 81%SC wins 19%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ UGA 32–18 SCSC 14–56 UGA neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesSC 18–53 UGA neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesSC 21–49 UGA neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesSC 25–46 UGA neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesSC 28–42 UGA neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesSC 32–39 UGA neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesSC 35–35 UGA neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesSC 39–32 UGA neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesSC 42–28 UGA neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesSC 11–53 UGA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesSC 14–49 UGA neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesSC 18–46 UGA neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesSC 21–42 UGA neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesSC 25–39 UGA neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesSC 28–35 UGA neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesSC 32–32 UGA neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesSC 35–28 UGA neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesSC 39–25 UGA neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesSC 7–49 UGA neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesSC 11–46 UGA neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesSC 14–42 UGA neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesSC 18–39 UGA neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesSC 21–35 UGA neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesSC 25–32 UGA neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesSC 28–28 UGA neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesSC 32–25 UGA neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesSC 35–21 UGA neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesSC 4–46 UGA neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesSC 7–42 UGA neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesSC 11–39 UGA neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesSC 14–35 UGA neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesSC 18–32 UGA neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesSC 21–28 UGA neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesSC 25–25 UGA neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesSC 28–21 UGA neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesSC 32–18 UGA neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesSC 0–42 UGA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesSC 4–39 UGA neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesSC 7–35 UGA neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesSC 11–32 UGA neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesSC 14–28 UGA neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesSC 18–25 UGA neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesSC 21–21 UGA neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesSC 25–18 UGA neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesSC 28–14 UGA neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)SC 0–35 UGA neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesSC 4–32 UGA neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesSC 7–28 UGA neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesSC 11–25 UGA neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesSC 14–21 UGA neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesSC 18–18 UGA neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesSC 21–14 UGA neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesSC 25–11 UGA neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)SC 0–28 UGA neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesSC 4–25 UGA neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesSC 7–21 UGA neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesSC 11–18 UGA neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesSC 14–14 UGA neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesSC 18–11 UGA neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesSC 21–7 UGA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomes70635649423528totalUGA +42UGA +28UGA +14PKSC +14margin →