AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 1 · Sat Sep 5 · 12:00 PM
#126Away
Coastal Carolina
0-0 · AVR 29.6
14p
#66Home
West Virginia
0-0 · AVR 50.2
44p
CCU 2%98% WVU
Spread
WVU -29.8
Total
59
Moneyline
CCU—WVU—
Against the market
WVU +8.3line WVU -21.5

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← CCU advantageevenWVU advantage →
CCU throw
CCU WR #42WVU coverage #117
even
CCU run
WVU +32
WVU throw
CCU coverage #123CCU pass rush #36
even
WVU run
WVU line #79WVU backs #2
WVU +15

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when CCU throws
Tristian Gardner
vs
Kamari Wilson
X · CCU
CB1 · WVU
74.7
71.8
dead even
off the edge· hunting Jr.
Cam Griffin
vs
Mitchell Toney
LT · WVU
EDGE · CCU
63.6
82.2
CCU +19
when WVU runs
Cam Cook
vs
Tray Brown
RB · WVU
MLB · CCU
82.0
63.6
WVU +18
off the edge· hunting Jackson
Daughtry Richardson
vs
Harper Holloman
LT · CCU
EDGE · WVU
47.2
86.1
WVU +39
when CCU runs
Dominic Knicely
vs
Ben Cutter
RB · CCU
MLB · WVU
52.0
75.6
WVU +24
when WVU throws
John Neider
vs
Myles Woods
X · WVU
CB1 · CCU
66.6
54.5
WVU +12

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Coastal Carolina
WRTristian Gardner
74.734/777
LBTray Brown
63.6230/878
DBMyles Woods
54.5635/1427
WRClayton Coppock Jr.
53.9195/777
QBTrever Jackson
52.9125/308
RBDominic Knicely
52.0233/514
West Virginia
RBCam Cook
82.017/514
LBBen Cutter
75.6100/878
SKamari Wilson
71.8194/1427
WRJohn Neider
66.675/777
LBMalachi Hood
64.6220/878
QBScotty Fox Jr.
54.898/308

also out — Landon Drum (WR), Lawrence Autry (RB)

Projected margin

80% between 11 and 49
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKWVU +29.8MKT95% interval: 3 to 5880% interval: 11 to 49+11+49CCU wins 2%WVU wins 98%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ WVU 42–14 CCUWVU 39–39 CCU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesWVU 42–35 CCU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesWVU 46–32 CCU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesWVU 49–28 CCU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesWVU 53–25 CCU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesWVU 56–21 CCU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesWVU 60–18 CCU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesWVU 63–14 CCU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesWVU 67–11 CCU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesWVU 35–35 CCU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesWVU 39–32 CCU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesWVU 42–28 CCU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesWVU 46–25 CCU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesWVU 49–21 CCU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesWVU 53–18 CCU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesWVU 56–14 CCU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesWVU 60–11 CCU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesWVU 63–7 CCU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesWVU 32–32 CCU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesWVU 35–28 CCU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesWVU 39–25 CCU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesWVU 42–21 CCU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesWVU 46–18 CCU neighborhood · ~3.5% of outcomesWVU 49–14 CCU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesWVU 53–11 CCU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesWVU 56–7 CCU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesWVU 60–4 CCU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesWVU 28–28 CCU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesWVU 32–25 CCU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesWVU 35–21 CCU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesWVU 39–18 CCU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesWVU 42–14 CCU neighborhood · ~3.6% of outcomesWVU 46–11 CCU neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesWVU 49–7 CCU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesWVU 53–4 CCU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesWVU 56–0 CCU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesWVU 25–25 CCU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesWVU 28–21 CCU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesWVU 32–18 CCU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesWVU 35–14 CCU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesWVU 39–11 CCU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesWVU 42–7 CCU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesWVU 46–4 CCU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesWVU 49–0 CCU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)WVU 21–21 CCU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesWVU 25–18 CCU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesWVU 28–14 CCU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesWVU 32–11 CCU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesWVU 35–7 CCU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesWVU 39–4 CCU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesWVU 42–0 CCU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)WVU 18–18 CCU neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesWVU 21–14 CCU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesWVU 25–11 CCU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesWVU 28–7 CCU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesWVU 32–4 CCU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesWVU 35–0 CCU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)77706356494235totalPKWVU +14WVU +28WVU +42WVU +56margin →