AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 3 · Sat Sep 19 · 11:30 PM
#19Away
BYU
0-0 · AVR 69.1
40p
#129Home
Colorado State
0-0 · AVR 26.9
13p
BYU 97%3% CSU
Spread
BYU -26.9
Total
54
Moneyline
BYU-2940CSU+2940
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← BYU advantageevenCSU advantage →
BYU throw
BYU WR #81
BYU +62
BYU run
BYU +72
CSU throw
BYU +50
CSU run
CSU backs #80
BYU +43

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Bachmeier
Bruce Mitchell
vs
Gabe Jones
LT · BYU
EDGE · CSU
88.8
62.7
BYU +26
when BYU runs
LJ Martin
vs
Paul Tangelo
RB · BYU
MLB · CSU
84.9
59.0
BYU +26
when CSU runs
Mel Brown
vs
Isaiah Glasker
RB · CSU
MLB · BYU
55.6
84.3
BYU +29
when CSU throws
Tay Lanier
vs
Evan Johnson
X · CSU
CB1 · BYU
52.7
85.7
BYU +33
over the middle
Juice Vereen
vs
Raider Damuni
TE · CSU
FS · BYU
73.8
64.2
CSU +10
over the middle
Walker Lyons
vs
Jace Bellah
TE · BYU
FS · CSU
68.0
46.0
BYU +22

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
BYU
QBBear Bachmeier
96.72/308
CBEvan Johnson
85.737/1427
SFaletau Satualaprobable
85.640/1427
RBLJ Martin
84.96/514
LBIsaiah Glasker
84.325/878
CBTherrian Alexander III
79.792/1427
Colorado State
TEJuice Vereen
73.84/287
LBPaul Tangelo
59.0310/878
DBLemondre Joe
56.5574/1427
RBMel Brown
55.6161/514
WRTay Lanier
52.7240/777
DBJahari Rogers
51.6714/1427

Projected margin

80% between -44 and -10
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKBYU +26.995% interval: -50.8 to -2.980% interval: -44.2 to -9.5-44-9BYU wins 97%CSU wins 3%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ BYU 42–14 CSUCSU 11–67 BYU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesCSU 14–63 BYU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesCSU 18–60 BYU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesCSU 21–56 BYU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesCSU 25–53 BYU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesCSU 28–49 BYU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesCSU 32–46 BYU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesCSU 35–42 BYU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesCSU 39–39 BYU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesCSU 7–63 BYU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesCSU 11–60 BYU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesCSU 14–56 BYU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesCSU 18–53 BYU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesCSU 21–49 BYU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesCSU 25–46 BYU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesCSU 28–42 BYU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesCSU 32–39 BYU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesCSU 35–35 BYU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesCSU 4–60 BYU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesCSU 7–56 BYU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesCSU 11–53 BYU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesCSU 14–49 BYU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesCSU 18–46 BYU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesCSU 21–42 BYU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesCSU 25–39 BYU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesCSU 28–35 BYU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesCSU 32–32 BYU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesCSU 0–56 BYU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesCSU 4–53 BYU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesCSU 7–49 BYU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesCSU 11–46 BYU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesCSU 14–42 BYU neighborhood · ~3.5% of outcomesCSU 18–39 BYU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesCSU 21–35 BYU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesCSU 25–32 BYU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesCSU 28–28 BYU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)CSU 0–49 BYU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesCSU 4–46 BYU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesCSU 7–42 BYU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesCSU 11–39 BYU neighborhood · ~3.5% of outcomesCSU 14–35 BYU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesCSU 18–32 BYU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesCSU 21–28 BYU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesCSU 25–25 BYU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)CSU 0–42 BYU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesCSU 4–39 BYU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesCSU 7–35 BYU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesCSU 11–32 BYU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesCSU 14–28 BYU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesCSU 18–25 BYU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesCSU 21–21 BYU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)CSU 0–35 BYU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesCSU 4–32 BYU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesCSU 7–28 BYU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesCSU 11–25 BYU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesCSU 14–21 BYU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesCSU 18–18 BYU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomes77706356494235totalBYU +56BYU +42BYU +28BYU +14PKmargin →