AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 11 · Sat Nov 14 · 5:00 AM
#50Away
Kansas
0-0 · AVR 55.4
29p
#66Home
West Virginia
0-0 · AVR 50.2
26p
KU 57%43% WVU
Spread
KU -2.8
Total
56
Moneyline
KU-135WVU+135
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← KU advantageevenWVU advantage →
KU throw
KU QB #95KU protection #1
KU +6
KU run
KU backs #63
KU +7
WVU throw
KU pass rush #42
KU +6
WVU run
WVU line #79WVU backs #2
KU +8

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Marshall
James Livingston
vs
Harper Holloman
LT · KU
EDGE · WVU
96.9
86.1
KU +11
when WVU runs
Cam Cook
vs
Jibreel Al-Amin
RB · WVU
MLB · KU
82.0
78.3
WVU +4
off the edge· hunting Jr.
Cam Griffin
vs
Blake Herold
LT · WVU
EDGE · KU
63.6
82.8
KU +19
when KU throws
Cam Pickett
vs
Kamari Wilson
X · KU
CB1 · WVU
68.5
71.8
WVU +3
when KU runs
Yasin Willis
vs
Ben Cutter
RB · KU
MLB · WVU
59.9
75.6
WVU +16
when WVU throws
John Neider
vs
Jalen Todd
X · WVU
CB1 · KU
66.6
67.8
dead even

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Kansas
LBJibreel Al-Amin
78.376/878
LBTrey Lathan
75.4103/878
WRCam Pickettquestionable
68.561/777
CBJalen Todd
67.8284/1427
SCorey Gordon
66.4323/1427
TELeyton Cure
60.053/287

also out — J. Thurman (RB), Tre'von McAlpine (DL)

West Virginia
RBCam Cook
82.017/514
LBBen Cutter
75.6100/878
SKamari Wilson
71.8194/1427
WRJohn Neider
66.675/777
LBMalachi Hood
64.6220/878
QBScotty Fox Jr.
54.898/308

also out — Landon Drum (WR), Lawrence Autry (RB)

Common opponents

3 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Kansas
opponent
West Virginia
away-6.2
TCU#32
-11.5away
away-14.9
Utah#16
-20.2away
away+10.7
Oklahoma State#97
+10.4home

Projected margin

80% between -20 and 15
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKKU +2.895% interval: -26.7 to 21.280% interval: -20.1 to 14.6-20+15KU wins 57%WVU wins 43%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ WVU 28–28 KUWVU 25–53 KU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesWVU 28–49 KU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesWVU 32–46 KU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesWVU 35–42 KU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesWVU 39–39 KU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesWVU 42–35 KU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesWVU 46–32 KU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesWVU 49–28 KU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesWVU 53–25 KU neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesWVU 21–49 KU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesWVU 25–46 KU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesWVU 28–42 KU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesWVU 32–39 KU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesWVU 35–35 KU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesWVU 39–32 KU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesWVU 42–28 KU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesWVU 46–25 KU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesWVU 49–21 KU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesWVU 18–46 KU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesWVU 21–42 KU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesWVU 25–39 KU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesWVU 28–35 KU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesWVU 32–32 KU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesWVU 35–28 KU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesWVU 39–25 KU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesWVU 42–21 KU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesWVU 46–18 KU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesWVU 14–42 KU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesWVU 18–39 KU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesWVU 21–35 KU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesWVU 25–32 KU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesWVU 28–28 KU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesWVU 32–25 KU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesWVU 35–21 KU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesWVU 39–18 KU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesWVU 42–14 KU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesWVU 11–39 KU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesWVU 14–35 KU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesWVU 18–32 KU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesWVU 21–28 KU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesWVU 25–25 KU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesWVU 28–21 KU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesWVU 32–18 KU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesWVU 35–14 KU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesWVU 39–11 KU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesWVU 7–35 KU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesWVU 11–32 KU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesWVU 14–28 KU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesWVU 18–25 KU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesWVU 21–21 KU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesWVU 25–18 KU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesWVU 28–14 KU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesWVU 32–11 KU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesWVU 35–7 KU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesWVU 4–32 KU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesWVU 7–28 KU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesWVU 11–25 KU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesWVU 14–21 KU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesWVU 18–18 KU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesWVU 21–14 KU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesWVU 25–11 KU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesWVU 28–7 KU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesWVU 32–4 KU neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomes77706356494235totalKU +28KU +14PKWVU +14WVU +28margin →