AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 12 · Sat Nov 21 · 5:00 AM
#19Away
BYU
0-0 · AVR 69.1
32p
#50Home
Kansas
0-0 · AVR 55.4
24p
BYU 71%29% KU
Spread
BYU -7.9
Total
55
Moneyline
BYU-241KU+241
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← BYU advantageevenKU advantage →
BYU throw
BYU WR #81KU pass rush #42
BYU +28
BYU run
BYU +13
KU throw
KU QB #95KU protection #1
BYU +15
KU run
KU backs #63
KU +12

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Bachmeier
Bruce Mitchell
vs
Blake Herold
LT · BYU
EDGE · KU
88.8
82.8
BYU +6
off the edge· hunting Marshall
James Livingston
vs
Keanu Tanuvasa
LT · KU
EDGE · BYU
96.9
67.4
KU +30
when BYU runs
LJ Martin
vs
Jibreel Al-Amin
RB · BYU
MLB · KU
84.9
78.3
BYU +7
when KU throws
Cam Pickett
vs
Evan Johnson
X · KU
CB1 · BYU
68.5
85.7
BYU +17
when KU runs
Yasin Willis
vs
Isaiah Glasker
RB · KU
MLB · BYU
59.9
84.3
BYU +24
over the middle
Leyton Cure
vs
Raider Damuni
TE · KU
FS · BYU
60.0
64.2
BYU +4

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
BYU
QBBear Bachmeier
96.72/308
CBEvan Johnson
85.737/1427
SFaletau Satualaprobable
85.640/1427
RBLJ Martin
84.96/514
LBIsaiah Glasker
84.325/878
CBTherrian Alexander III
79.792/1427
Kansas
LBJibreel Al-Amin
78.376/878
LBTrey Lathan
75.4103/878
WRCam Pickettquestionable
68.561/777
CBJalen Todd
67.8284/1427
SCorey Gordon
66.4323/1427
TELeyton Cure
60.053/287

also out — J. Thurman (RB), Tre'von McAlpine (DL)

Common opponents

5 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
BYU
opponent
Kansas
home+12.8
Arizona State#43
0.0neutral
away-4.5
Utah#16
-14.9away
away+4.1
TCU#32
-6.2away
home+11.4
Baylor#42
+1.1home
away+10.2
UCF#52
+4.9home

Projected margin

80% between -25 and 10
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKBYU +7.995% interval: -31.8 to 1680% interval: -25.3 to 9.5-25+10BYU wins 71%KU wins 29%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ BYU 32–25 KUKU 21–56 BYU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesKU 25–53 BYU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesKU 28–49 BYU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesKU 32–46 BYU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesKU 35–42 BYU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesKU 39–39 BYU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesKU 42–35 BYU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesKU 46–32 BYU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesKU 49–28 BYU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesKU 18–53 BYU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesKU 21–49 BYU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesKU 25–46 BYU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesKU 28–42 BYU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesKU 32–39 BYU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesKU 35–35 BYU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesKU 39–32 BYU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesKU 42–28 BYU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesKU 46–25 BYU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesKU 14–49 BYU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesKU 18–46 BYU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesKU 21–42 BYU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesKU 25–39 BYU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesKU 28–35 BYU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesKU 32–32 BYU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesKU 35–28 BYU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesKU 39–25 BYU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesKU 42–21 BYU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesKU 11–46 BYU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesKU 14–42 BYU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesKU 18–39 BYU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesKU 21–35 BYU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesKU 25–32 BYU neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesKU 28–28 BYU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesKU 32–25 BYU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesKU 35–21 BYU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesKU 39–18 BYU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesKU 7–42 BYU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesKU 11–39 BYU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesKU 14–35 BYU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesKU 18–32 BYU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesKU 21–28 BYU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesKU 25–25 BYU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesKU 28–21 BYU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesKU 32–18 BYU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesKU 35–14 BYU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesKU 4–39 BYU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesKU 7–35 BYU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesKU 11–32 BYU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesKU 14–28 BYU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesKU 18–25 BYU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesKU 21–21 BYU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesKU 25–18 BYU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesKU 28–14 BYU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesKU 32–11 BYU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesKU 0–35 BYU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesKU 4–32 BYU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesKU 7–28 BYU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesKU 11–25 BYU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesKU 14–21 BYU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesKU 18–18 BYU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesKU 21–14 BYU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesKU 25–11 BYU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesKU 28–7 BYU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomes77706356494235totalBYU +35BYU +21BYU +7KU +7KU +21margin →