CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 11 · Sat Nov 14 · 12:00 AM ET
Forecast win probability
SC 64.5%35.5% ARK
Projected margin
SC by 5.9
Projected total
57
80% outcome range
SC 24 to ARK 13
Win probability
SC 64.5%

Current team profiles

South Carolina
Arkansas

When South Carolina has the ball

Passing

SC offense
Higher-ranked profile
SC offense
#66
ARK defense
#84
EPA comparison
0.24
#66
0.19
#84
Pass EPA

Rushing

SC offense
Higher-ranked profile
SC offense
#25
ARK defense
#125
EPA comparison
0.22
#25
0.20
#125
Rush EPA

Drive success

SC offense
Higher-ranked profile
SC offense
#40
ARK defense
#100
Success rates
47%
#40
43%
#100
Success rate
More metrics
0.21
#42
0.17
#111
EPA / play
1.21
#83
1.16
#38
Explosiveness
13%
#44
13%
#111
Havoc

When Arkansas has the ball

Passing

ARK offense
Higher-ranked profile
SC defense
#121
ARK offense
#88
EPA comparison
0.35
#121
0.14
#88
Pass EPA

Rushing

SC defense
Higher-ranked profile
SC defense
#37
ARK offense
#134
EPA comparison
-0.03
#37
-0.11
#134
Rush EPA

Drive success

SC defense
Higher-ranked profile
SC defense
#74
ARK offense
#96
Success rates
41%
#74
41%
#96
Success rate
More metrics
0.13
#96
0.01
#120
EPA / play
1.27
#90
1.08
#129
Explosiveness
14%
#101
19%
#126
Havoc

Current key players

South Carolina
QBLaNorris Sellers
1059 yds · 8 TD · 4 INT
68.2180/729
DBKosci Barnes
— tkl · — PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
63.4
Coverage
91.8
Targets allowed
1
Rec allowed
0
Yards allowed
0
Passer rating allowed
0.0
Missed tackles
0
91.93/2969
RBIsaiah Augustave
114 yds · 2 TD · 8.1 YPC
87.421/1044
LBJamian Risher Jr.
3 tkl · 1.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
76.9
Coverage
66.6
Pressures
1
Pass-rush snaps
2
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
0
73.3249/1796
DBKendall Daniels Jr.
12 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
70.4
Coverage
70.9
Targets allowed
3
Rec allowed
1
Yards allowed
1
Passer rating allowed
42.4
Missed tackles
1
71.9333/2969
DBTriston Lewis
1 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
60.1
Coverage
72.6
Targets allowed
0
Rec allowed
0
Yards allowed
0
Missed tackles
0
71.7346/2969
Availability reports · 7
  • Dylan Stewart · DLout · 2026-09-20

    Stewart is dealing with a back injury, and he will miss an undetermined length of time.

  • Jayden Gibson · WRout · 2026-08-17

    Gibson is batting with a lower body injury, and he will be idle for the remainder of the season.

  • Jayden Sellers · WRout · 2026-08-17

    Sellers is fighting off a lower body injury, and he has been shut down for the remainder of the season.

  • Jacarrius Peak · OGQues. · 2026-10-08

    Peak is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against Florida on Saturday.

  • Gabriel Brownlow-Dindy · DLQues. · 2026-10-08

    Brownlow-Dindy is nursing with a upper body injury, and it is uncertain if he will play against Florida on Saturday.

  • Mazeo Bennett Jr. · WRQues. · 2026-10-09

    Bennett is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will suit up against the Florida on Saturday.

  • Lucian Anderson III · QBQues. · 2026-10-08

    Anderson III is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is uncertain if he will play against Florida on Saturday.

Arkansas
QBKJ Jackson
1038 yds · 6 TD · 4 INT
64.0225/729
WRChris Marshall
35 rec · 517 yds · 2 TD
81.246/2069
LBBen Bogle
36 tkl · 2.5 TFL · 1.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
85.7
Coverage
58.6
Pressures
1
Pass-rush snaps
11
Missed tackles
4
Forced fumbles
0
78.799/1796
DBShelton Lewis
13 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
62.7
Coverage
81.3
Targets allowed
7
Rec allowed
3
Yards allowed
45
Passer rating allowed
64.6
Missed tackles
1
78.584/2969
DBKhmori House
33 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
84.7
Coverage
68.2
Targets allowed
16
Rec allowed
14
Yards allowed
107
Passer rating allowed
94.5
Missed tackles
1
73.2266/2969
WRJelani Watkins
27 rush yds · 0 TD · 3 car
73.0164/2069
Availability reports · 2
  • Maddox Lassiter · TEout · 2026-08-16

    Lassiter has been shut down for the remainder of the season due to an upper body injury.

  • H. Hendrix · TEQues. · 2026-10-11

    Hendrix is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear whether he will play against Commodores on Saturday, October 17th.

Position units

Position-unit comparison

SC
ARK
vs
Offense
68.2
#110 of 138
QB
64.0
#122 of 138
84.0
#14 of 138
RB
67.0
#135 of 138
64.6
#132 of 138
WR
72.9
#50 of 138
68.6
#76 of 138
TE
61.8
#107 of 138
74.7
#19 of 138
OL
64.3
#102 of 138
Defense
78.9
#18 of 138
DL
72.4
#79 of 138
68.0
#121 of 138
LB
70.2
#103 of 138
75.2
#30 of 138
DB
70.2
#94 of 138
Common opponents

Common opponents

South Carolina
opponent
Arkansas
H-5.4
TA&M#28
-27.0A
H-12.6
UGA#6
-28.0H
H-6.8
TENN#21
-7.0H