AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 11 · Sat Nov 14 · 5:00 AM
#29Away
South Carolina
0-0 · AVR 63.4
30p
#40Home
Arkansas
0-0 · AVR 58.2
26p
SC 59%41% ARK
Spread
SC -3.5
Total
56
Moneyline
SC-143ARK+143
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← SC advantageevenARK advantage →
SC throw
SC +6
SC run
ARK linebackers #107
ARK +20
ARK throw
SC +13
ARK run
SC +23

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when ARK runs
Sutton Smith
vs
Fred Johnson
RB · ARK
MLB · SC
68.8
78.4
SC +10
over the middle
Jaden Platt
vs
Gerald Kilgore
TE · ARK
FS · SC
78.6
62.1
ARK +16
off the edge· hunting Jackson
Bryant Williams
vs
Dylan Stewart
LT · ARK
EDGE · SC
45.4
91.7
SC +46
when SC throws
Nyck Harbor
vs
Joker Johnson
X · SC
CB1 · ARK
61.5
70.0
ARK +8
when SC runs
Christian Clark
vs
Ben Bogle
RB · SC
MLB · ARK
53.4
77.0
ARK +24
when ARK throws
Jamari Hawkins
vs
Vicari Swain
X · ARK
CB1 · SC
56.7
71.7
SC +15

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
South Carolina
LBFred Johnson
78.473/878
LBJustin Okoronkwo
72.1123/878
DBVicari Swain
71.7197/1427
QBLaNorris Sellers
67.648/308
DBPeyton Williams
67.0308/1427
DBJalewis Solomon
62.1423/1427

also out — unknown (WR), J. Gibson (WR), J. Sellers (WR), Dylan Stewart (EDGE), Jacarrius Peak (OL)

Arkansas
TEJaden Platt
78.63/287
LBBen Bogle
77.088/878
DBJoker Johnson
70.0239/1427
RBSutton Smith
68.861/514
DBLa'khi Roland
64.9358/1427
DBChristian Harrison
60.9459/1427

also out — M. Lassiter (TE)

Common opponents

3 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
South Carolina
opponent
Arkansas
home-8.0
Texas A&M#8
-19.0away
home-12.9
Georgia#3
-19.0home
home-2.8
Tennessee#17
-8.8home

Projected margin

80% between -21 and 14
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKSC +3.595% interval: -27.4 to 20.480% interval: -20.9 to 13.9-21+14SC wins 59%ARK wins 41%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ SC 32–25 ARKARK 25–53 SC neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesARK 28–49 SC neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesARK 32–46 SC neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesARK 35–42 SC neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesARK 39–39 SC neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesARK 42–35 SC neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesARK 46–32 SC neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesARK 49–28 SC neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesARK 53–25 SC neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesARK 21–49 SC neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesARK 25–46 SC neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesARK 28–42 SC neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesARK 32–39 SC neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesARK 35–35 SC neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesARK 39–32 SC neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesARK 42–28 SC neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesARK 46–25 SC neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesARK 49–21 SC neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesARK 18–46 SC neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesARK 21–42 SC neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesARK 25–39 SC neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesARK 28–35 SC neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesARK 32–32 SC neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesARK 35–28 SC neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesARK 39–25 SC neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesARK 42–21 SC neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesARK 46–18 SC neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesARK 14–42 SC neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesARK 18–39 SC neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesARK 21–35 SC neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesARK 25–32 SC neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesARK 28–28 SC neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesARK 32–25 SC neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesARK 35–21 SC neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesARK 39–18 SC neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesARK 42–14 SC neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesARK 11–39 SC neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesARK 14–35 SC neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesARK 18–32 SC neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesARK 21–28 SC neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesARK 25–25 SC neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesARK 28–21 SC neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesARK 32–18 SC neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesARK 35–14 SC neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesARK 39–11 SC neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesARK 7–35 SC neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesARK 11–32 SC neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesARK 14–28 SC neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesARK 18–25 SC neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesARK 21–21 SC neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesARK 25–18 SC neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesARK 28–14 SC neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesARK 32–11 SC neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesARK 35–7 SC neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesARK 4–32 SC neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesARK 7–28 SC neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesARK 11–25 SC neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesARK 14–21 SC neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesARK 18–18 SC neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesARK 21–14 SC neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesARK 25–11 SC neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesARK 28–7 SC neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesARK 32–4 SC neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomes77706356494235totalSC +28SC +14PKARK +14ARK +28margin →