CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 1 · Sat Sep 5 · 10:30 PM ET
#109Away
UCLA
0-0 · AVR 51.1
45
Final
#92Home
California
0-0 · AVR 53.2
24
Forecast win probability
UCLA 46.4%53.6% CAL
Projected margin
CAL by 1.4
Projected total
52
80% outcome range
UCLA 19 to CAL 22
Win probability
CAL 53.6%
FinalUCLA 45 · CAL 24model had +1.4, off by 22.4

Current team profiles

UCLA
California

When UCLA has the ball

Passing

CAL defense
Higher-ranked profile
UCLA offense
#98
CAL defense
#26
EPA comparison
0.12
#98
0.01
#26
Pass EPA

Rushing

UCLA offense
Higher-ranked profile
UCLA offense
#12
CAL defense
#122
EPA comparison
0.26
#12
0.19
#122
Rush EPA

Drive success

CAL defense
Higher-ranked profile
UCLA offense
#44
CAL defense
#36
Success rates
46%
#44
37%
#36
Success rate
More metrics
0.20
#46
0.06
#70
EPA / play
1.23
#72
1.40
#128
Explosiveness
14%
#63
14%
#97
Havoc

When California has the ball

Passing

UCLA defense
Higher-ranked profile
UCLA defense
#5
CAL offense
#92
EPA comparison
-0.12
#5
0.13
#92
Pass EPA

Rushing

UCLA defense
Higher-ranked profile
UCLA defense
#1
CAL offense
#123
EPA comparison
-0.24
#1
-0.07
#123
Rush EPA

Drive success

UCLA defense
Higher-ranked profile
UCLA defense
#5
CAL offense
#113
Success rates
32%
#5
39%
#113
Success rate
More metrics
-0.20
#1
0.01
#119
EPA / play
1.23
#74
1.28
#42
Explosiveness
21%
#11
17%
#114
Havoc

Current key players

UCLA
QBNico Iamaleava
820 yds · 4 TD · 2 INT
64.9216/729
LBSammy Omosigho
38 tkl · 7.0 TFL · 3.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
91.7
Coverage
82.5
Pressures
11
Pass-rush snaps
42
Missed tackles
2
Forced fumbles
3
90.78/1796
LBTrent Hendrick
7 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
78.7
Coverage
82.5
Pressures
1
Pass-rush snaps
7
Missed tackles
1
Forced fumbles
0
86.825/1796
RBWayne Knight
445 yds · 9 TD · 9.1 YPC
86.227/1044
DBTa'Shawn James
24 tkl · 2 PD · 3 INT
Player detail
Run defense
74.0
Coverage
84.8
Targets allowed
10
Rec allowed
6
Yards allowed
70
Passer rating allowed
41.7
Missed tackles
5
84.328/2969
DBDerrick Barksdale
12 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
72.5
Coverage
76.5
Targets allowed
18
Rec allowed
12
Yards allowed
110
Passer rating allowed
120.1
Missed tackles
3
77.7102/2969
Availability reports · 3
  • Mikey Matthews · WRout · 2026-09-21

    Matthews is dealing with a lower-leg injury, and he has been shut down for the remainder of the season.

  • Josh Phifer · TEQues. · 2026-10-11

    Phifer is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will suit up against Badgers on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Sam Yoon · OGQues. · 2026-10-11

    Yoon is sidelined with an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will suit up against Badgers on Saturday, October 17th.

California
QBDominic Ingrassia
— yds · — TD · — INT
76.3103/729
DBKingston Lopa
27 tkl · 1 PD · 5 INT
Player detail
Run defense
57.6
Coverage
90.8
Targets allowed
10
Rec allowed
6
Yards allowed
71
Passer rating allowed
42.1
Missed tackles
6
85.523/2969
RBAdam Mohammed
336 yds · 3 TD · 4.6 YPC
78.5100/1044
DBCam Sidney
9 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
70.1
Coverage
77.1
Targets allowed
10
Rec allowed
5
Yards allowed
37
Passer rating allowed
59.2
Missed tackles
1
76.6142/2969
DBIsaiah Crosby
24 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
79.7
Coverage
77.2
Targets allowed
11
Rec allowed
6
Yards allowed
19
Passer rating allowed
22.2
Missed tackles
3
76.3150/2969
LBJoshua Pierce
6 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
74.8
Pressures
0
Pass-rush snaps
13
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
0
71.6301/1796
Availability reports · 6
  • Adam Mohammed · RBQues. · 2026-10-11

    Mohammed is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is un determined if he will play against the Demon Deacons on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele · QBQues. · 2026-10-11

    Sagapolutele is dealing with a head injury, and it is unclear if he will play against the Demon Deacons on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Carter Vargas · RBQues. · 2026-10-11

    Vargas is dealing with a leg injury, and it has yet to be determined if he will be active against the Demon Deacons on Saturday, October 17t

  • Cole Boscia · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Boscia is battling with an undisclosed injury, and it is uncertain if he will against the Demon Deacons on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Rico Walker · TEQues. · 2026-10-11

    Walker is hampered with an undisclosed injury, and it is yet to established to play against the Demon Deacons on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Trevor Rogers · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Rogers is hampered with an undisclosed injury, and it is yet to established to play against the Demon Deacons on Saturday, October 17th.

Position units

Position-unit comparison

UCLA
CAL
vs
Offense
64.9
#120 of 138
QB
76.3
#77 of 138
86.0
#7 of 138
RB
73.2
#93 of 138
74.0
#43 of 138
WR
66.0
#128 of 138
61.1
#110 of 138
TE
57.9
#132 of 138
69.3
#57 of 138
OL
67.0
#78 of 138
Defense
80.0
#16 of 138
DL
70.3
#102 of 138
84.2
#8 of 138
LB
70.6
#99 of 138
75.2
#31 of 138
DB
77.1
#15 of 138
Common opponents