AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 1 · Sat Sep 5 · 10:30 PM
#53Away
UCLA
0-0 · AVR 54.5
25p
#68Home
California
0-0 · AVR 49.3
30p
UCLA 38%62% CAL
Spread
CAL -4.6
Total
55
Moneyline
UCLA+164CAL-164
Against the market
CAL +6.1line UCLA -1.5

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← UCLA advantageevenCAL advantage →
UCLA throw
CAL coverage #52CAL pass rush #151
UCLA +27
UCLA run
CAL linebackers #81
UCLA +43
CAL throw
CAL protection #105
even
CAL run
CAL line #105CAL backs #48
UCLA +35

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when CAL throws
Ian Strong
vs
Derrick Barksdale
X · CAL
CB1 · UCLA
78.7
89.4
UCLA +11
when UCLA throws
Landon Ellis
vs
Cam Sidney
X · UCLA
CB1 · CAL
87.0
78.5
UCLA +9
when CAL runs
Adam Mohammed
vs
Drew Spinogatti
RB · CAL
MLB · UCLA
69.4
84.8
UCLA +15
when UCLA runs
Wayne Knight
vs
Tristan Jernigan
RB · UCLA
MLB · CAL
82.7
69.7
UCLA +13
off the edge· hunting Sagapolutele
Bastian Swinney
vs
Sahir West
LT · CAL
EDGE · UCLA
43.6
93.8
UCLA +50
over the middle
Dorian Thomas
vs
Ta'Shawn James
TE · CAL
FS · UCLA
63.0
64.4
dead even

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
UCLA
DBDerrick Barksdale
89.415/1427
WRLandon Ellis
87.07/777
LBDrew Spinogatti
84.822/878
RBWayne Knight
82.715/514
LBSammy Omosigho
82.441/878
DBTao Johnson
81.872/1427
California
QBJaron-Keawe Sagapolutele
79.323/308
WRIan Strong
78.725/777
DBCam Sidney
78.5107/1427
DBIsaiah Crosby
74.0165/1427
DBAiden Manutai
69.9243/1427
LBTristan Jernigan
69.7149/878

Projected margin

80% between -14 and 25
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKCAL +4.6MKT95% interval: -27 to 3580% interval: -14 to 25-14+25UCLA wins 38%CAL wins 62%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ CAL 32–25 UCLACAL 28–49 UCLA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesCAL 32–46 UCLA neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesCAL 35–42 UCLA neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesCAL 39–39 UCLA neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesCAL 42–35 UCLA neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesCAL 46–32 UCLA neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesCAL 49–28 UCLA neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesCAL 53–25 UCLA neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesCAL 56–21 UCLA neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesCAL 25–46 UCLA neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesCAL 28–42 UCLA neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesCAL 32–39 UCLA neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesCAL 35–35 UCLA neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesCAL 39–32 UCLA neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesCAL 42–28 UCLA neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesCAL 46–25 UCLA neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesCAL 49–21 UCLA neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesCAL 53–18 UCLA neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesCAL 21–42 UCLA neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesCAL 25–39 UCLA neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesCAL 28–35 UCLA neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesCAL 32–32 UCLA neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesCAL 35–28 UCLA neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesCAL 39–25 UCLA neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesCAL 42–21 UCLA neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesCAL 46–18 UCLA neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesCAL 49–14 UCLA neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesCAL 18–39 UCLA neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesCAL 21–35 UCLA neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesCAL 25–32 UCLA neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesCAL 28–28 UCLA neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesCAL 32–25 UCLA neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesCAL 35–21 UCLA neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesCAL 39–18 UCLA neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesCAL 42–14 UCLA neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesCAL 46–11 UCLA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesCAL 14–35 UCLA neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesCAL 18–32 UCLA neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesCAL 21–28 UCLA neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesCAL 25–25 UCLA neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesCAL 28–21 UCLA neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesCAL 32–18 UCLA neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesCAL 35–14 UCLA neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesCAL 39–11 UCLA neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesCAL 42–7 UCLA neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesCAL 11–32 UCLA neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesCAL 14–28 UCLA neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesCAL 18–25 UCLA neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesCAL 21–21 UCLA neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesCAL 25–18 UCLA neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesCAL 28–14 UCLA neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesCAL 32–11 UCLA neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesCAL 35–7 UCLA neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesCAL 39–4 UCLA neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesCAL 7–28 UCLA neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesCAL 11–25 UCLA neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesCAL 14–21 UCLA neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesCAL 18–18 UCLA neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesCAL 21–14 UCLA neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesCAL 25–11 UCLA neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesCAL 28–7 UCLA neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesCAL 32–4 UCLA neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesCAL 35–0 UCLA neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomes77706356494235totalUCLA +21UCLA +7CAL +7CAL +21CAL +35margin →