AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 2 · Fri Sep 11 · 11:30 PM
#48Away
Rutgers
0-0 · AVR 55.7
32p
#79Home
Boston College
0-0 · AVR 46.7
28p
RUTG 60%40% BC
Spread
RUTG -3.6
Total
60
Moneyline
RUTG-148BC+148
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← RUTG advantageevenBC advantage →
RUTG throw
RUTG +32
RUTG run
RUTG +27
BC throw
RUTG coverage #153RUTG pass rush #21
BC +8
BC run
RUTG front #21RUTG linebackers #132
BC +12

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when RUTG throws
KJ Duff
vs
Kameron Howard
X · RUTG
CB1 · BC
87.1
75.7
RUTG +11
when RUTG runs
Antwan Raymond
vs
Bodie Kahoun
RB · RUTG
MLB · BC
86.0
75.5
RUTG +11
off the edge· pass rush vs protection
Reggie Jackson
vs
Malachi Davis
LT · BC
EDGE · RUTG
62.7
96.3
RUTG +34
off the edge· hunting Lonergan
Kwabena Asamoah
vs
Josiah Griffin
LT · RUTG
EDGE · BC
73.7
75.6
dead even
when BC runs
Evan Dickens
vs
Ty Morris
RB · BC
MLB · RUTG
79.5
65.5
BC +14
when BC throws
Dawson Pough
vs
Kevyn Humes
X · BC
CB1 · RUTG
55.9
46.7
BC +9

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Rutgers
WRKJ Duff
87.15/777
RBAntwan Raymond
86.04/514
LBTy Morris
65.5206/878
QBDylan Lonergan
62.362/308
TEJackson Gister
57.277/287
WRMichael Thomas III
53.7199/777
Boston College
RBEvan Dickens
79.525/514
DBKameron Howard
75.7148/1427
LBBodie Kahoun
75.5101/878
LBJustin Medlock
69.6151/878
TEKaelan Chudzinski
63.628/287
LBPalaie Faoa
57.4340/878

Projected margin

80% between -21 and 14
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKRUTG +3.695% interval: -27.5 to 20.380% interval: -20.9 to 13.8-21+14RUTG wins 60%BC wins 40%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ RUTG 35–28 BCBC 25–60 RUTG neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesBC 28–56 RUTG neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesBC 32–53 RUTG neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesBC 35–49 RUTG neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesBC 39–46 RUTG neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesBC 42–42 RUTG neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesBC 46–39 RUTG neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesBC 49–35 RUTG neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesBC 53–32 RUTG neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesBC 21–56 RUTG neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesBC 25–53 RUTG neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesBC 28–49 RUTG neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesBC 32–46 RUTG neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesBC 35–42 RUTG neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesBC 39–39 RUTG neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesBC 42–35 RUTG neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesBC 46–32 RUTG neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesBC 49–28 RUTG neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesBC 18–53 RUTG neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesBC 21–49 RUTG neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesBC 25–46 RUTG neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesBC 28–42 RUTG neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesBC 32–39 RUTG neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesBC 35–35 RUTG neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesBC 39–32 RUTG neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesBC 42–28 RUTG neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesBC 46–25 RUTG neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesBC 14–49 RUTG neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesBC 18–46 RUTG neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesBC 21–42 RUTG neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesBC 25–39 RUTG neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesBC 28–35 RUTG neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesBC 32–32 RUTG neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesBC 35–28 RUTG neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesBC 39–25 RUTG neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesBC 42–21 RUTG neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesBC 11–46 RUTG neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesBC 14–42 RUTG neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesBC 18–39 RUTG neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesBC 21–35 RUTG neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesBC 25–32 RUTG neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesBC 28–28 RUTG neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesBC 32–25 RUTG neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesBC 35–21 RUTG neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesBC 39–18 RUTG neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesBC 7–42 RUTG neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesBC 11–39 RUTG neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesBC 14–35 RUTG neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesBC 18–32 RUTG neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesBC 21–28 RUTG neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesBC 25–25 RUTG neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesBC 28–21 RUTG neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesBC 32–18 RUTG neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesBC 35–14 RUTG neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesBC 4–39 RUTG neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesBC 7–35 RUTG neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesBC 11–32 RUTG neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesBC 14–28 RUTG neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesBC 18–25 RUTG neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesBC 21–21 RUTG neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesBC 25–18 RUTG neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesBC 28–14 RUTG neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesBC 32–11 RUTG neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomes84777063564942totalRUTG +35RUTG +21RUTG +7BC +7BC +21margin →