AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 2 · Sat Sep 12 · 7:30 PM
#68Away
California
0-0 · AVR 49.3
26p
#71Home
Syracuse
0-0 · AVR 48.1
28p
CAL 44%56% SYR
Spread
SYR -2.0
Total
54
Moneyline
CAL+126SYR-126
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← CAL advantageevenSYR advantage →
CAL throw
CAL protection #105
CAL +26
CAL run
CAL line #105CAL backs #48
SYR +10
SYR throw
SYR QB #29SYR protection #93
SYR +16
SYR run
CAL linebackers #81
CAL +8

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when CAL runs
Adam Mohammed
vs
Chris D'Appolonia
RB · CAL
MLB · SYR
69.4
80.0
SYR +11
when CAL throws
Ian Strong
vs
Nazir Ward
X · CAL
CB1 · SYR
78.7
68.7
CAL +10
when SYR throws
Cole Weaver
vs
Cam Sidney
X · SYR
CB1 · CAL
54.3
78.5
CAL +24
off the edge· hunting Sagapolutele
Bastian Swinney
vs
Tunmise Adeleye
LT · CAL
EDGE · SYR
43.6
80.3
SYR +37
over the middle
Dorian Thomas
vs
Demetres Samuel Jr.
TE · CAL
FS · SYR
63.0
55.5
CAL +8
over the middle
Noah Meyers
vs
Khamani Hudson
TE · SYR
FS · CAL
53.0
61.9
CAL +9

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
California
QBJaron-Keawe Sagapolutele
79.323/308
WRIan Strong
78.725/777
DBCam Sidney
78.5107/1427
DBIsaiah Crosby
74.0165/1427
DBAiden Manutai
69.9243/1427
LBTristan Jernigan
69.7149/878
Syracuse
LBChris D'Appolonia
80.053/878
QBAmari Odom
74.229/308
DBNazir Ward
68.7268/1427
DBJai Eugene Jr.
60.6466/1427
DBChris Peal
60.1477/1427
LBJosh Kubala
55.6378/878

Common opponents

5 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
California
opponent
Syracuse
home-6.6
Pittsburgh#33
-12.1away
away-19.2
SMU#18
-14.7home
home-10.9
Clemson#27
-11.5home
away-11.5
NC State#34
-12.0away
away-7.6
Virginia#49
-8.1away

Projected margin

80% between -15 and 19
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKSYR +2.095% interval: -21.9 to 25.980% interval: -15.4 to 19.4-15+19CAL wins 44%SYR wins 56%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ SYR 28–28 CALSYR 25–53 CAL neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesSYR 28–49 CAL neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesSYR 32–46 CAL neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesSYR 35–42 CAL neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesSYR 39–39 CAL neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesSYR 42–35 CAL neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesSYR 46–32 CAL neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesSYR 49–28 CAL neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesSYR 53–25 CAL neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesSYR 21–49 CAL neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesSYR 25–46 CAL neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesSYR 28–42 CAL neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesSYR 32–39 CAL neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesSYR 35–35 CAL neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesSYR 39–32 CAL neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesSYR 42–28 CAL neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesSYR 46–25 CAL neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesSYR 49–21 CAL neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesSYR 18–46 CAL neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesSYR 21–42 CAL neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesSYR 25–39 CAL neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesSYR 28–35 CAL neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesSYR 32–32 CAL neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesSYR 35–28 CAL neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesSYR 39–25 CAL neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesSYR 42–21 CAL neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesSYR 46–18 CAL neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesSYR 14–42 CAL neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesSYR 18–39 CAL neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesSYR 21–35 CAL neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesSYR 25–32 CAL neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesSYR 28–28 CAL neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesSYR 32–25 CAL neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesSYR 35–21 CAL neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesSYR 39–18 CAL neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesSYR 42–14 CAL neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesSYR 11–39 CAL neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesSYR 14–35 CAL neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesSYR 18–32 CAL neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesSYR 21–28 CAL neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesSYR 25–25 CAL neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesSYR 28–21 CAL neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesSYR 32–18 CAL neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesSYR 35–14 CAL neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesSYR 39–11 CAL neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesSYR 7–35 CAL neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesSYR 11–32 CAL neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesSYR 14–28 CAL neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesSYR 18–25 CAL neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesSYR 21–21 CAL neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesSYR 25–18 CAL neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesSYR 28–14 CAL neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesSYR 32–11 CAL neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesSYR 35–7 CAL neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesSYR 4–32 CAL neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesSYR 7–28 CAL neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesSYR 11–25 CAL neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesSYR 14–21 CAL neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesSYR 18–18 CAL neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesSYR 21–14 CAL neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesSYR 25–11 CAL neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesSYR 28–7 CAL neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesSYR 32–4 CAL neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomes77706356494235totalCAL +28CAL +14PKSYR +14SYR +28margin →