CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 3 · Sat Sep 19 · 3:30 PM ET
Forecast win probability
WAG 0.1%99.9% CAL
Projected margin
CAL by 53.5
Projected total
68
80% outcome range
CAL 36 to CAL 70
Win probability
CAL 99.9%
FinalWAG 7 · CAL 49model had +53.5, off by 11.5

Current team profiles

Wagner
California

When Wagner has the ball

Passing

No comparison
WAG offense
—
CAL defense
#26
EPA comparison
—
0.01
#26
Pass EPA

Rushing

No comparison
WAG offense
—
CAL defense
#122
EPA comparison
—
0.19
#122
Rush EPA

Drive success

No comparison
WAG offense
#124
CAL defense
#36
Success rates
37%
#124
37%
#36
Success rate
More metrics
-0.09
#124
0.06
#70
EPA / play
0.17
#123
1.40
#128
Explosiveness
—
14%
#97
Havoc

When California has the ball

Passing

No comparison
WAG defense
—
CAL offense
#92
EPA comparison
—
0.13
#92
Pass EPA

Rushing

No comparison
WAG defense
—
CAL offense
#123
EPA comparison
—
-0.07
#123
Rush EPA

Drive success

No comparison
WAG defense
#74
CAL offense
#113
Success rates
45%
#74
39%
#113
Success rate
More metrics
0.14
#78
0.01
#119
EPA / play
0.23
#104
1.28
#42
Explosiveness
—
17%
#114
Havoc

Current key players

Wagner
QBTrip Maxwell
68 yds · 0 TD · 0 INT
69.6111/370
LBRyan Sissel
4 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
83.4
Coverage
79.1
Pressures
0
Pass-rush snaps
3
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
0
87.65/1054
DBJulio Tatis
13 tkl · 1 PD · 2 INT
Player detail
Run defense
64.7
Coverage
81.4
Targets allowed
31
Rec allowed
21
Yards allowed
178
Passer rating allowed
55.6
Missed tackles
5
80.340/1765
DBErnest Blackshire Jr.
11 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
68.9
Coverage
74.6
Targets allowed
1
Rec allowed
0
Yards allowed
0
Passer rating allowed
39.6
Missed tackles
1
78.078/1765
DLEthan Appolon
0 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
55.9
Pressures
3
Pass-rush snaps
19
Missed tackles
1
Forced fumbles
0
72.5195/1549
DLKahmari Valentine
10 tkl · 4.5 TFL · 1.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
73.4
Pressures
5
Pass-rush snaps
88
Missed tackles
2
Forced fumbles
0
71.9228/1549
California
QBDominic Ingrassia
— yds · — TD · — INT
76.3103/729
DBKingston Lopa
27 tkl · 1 PD · 5 INT
Player detail
Run defense
57.6
Coverage
90.8
Targets allowed
10
Rec allowed
6
Yards allowed
71
Passer rating allowed
42.1
Missed tackles
6
85.523/2969
RBAdam Mohammed
336 yds · 3 TD · 4.6 YPC
78.5100/1044
DBCam Sidney
9 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
70.1
Coverage
77.1
Targets allowed
10
Rec allowed
5
Yards allowed
37
Passer rating allowed
59.2
Missed tackles
1
76.6142/2969
DBIsaiah Crosby
24 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
79.7
Coverage
77.2
Targets allowed
11
Rec allowed
6
Yards allowed
19
Passer rating allowed
22.2
Missed tackles
3
76.3150/2969
LBJoshua Pierce
6 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
74.8
Pressures
0
Pass-rush snaps
13
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
0
71.6301/1796
Availability reports · 6
  • Adam Mohammed · RBQues. · 2026-10-11

    Mohammed is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is un determined if he will play against the Demon Deacons on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele · QBQues. · 2026-10-11

    Sagapolutele is dealing with a head injury, and it is unclear if he will play against the Demon Deacons on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Carter Vargas · RBQues. · 2026-10-11

    Vargas is dealing with a leg injury, and it has yet to be determined if he will be active against the Demon Deacons on Saturday, October 17t

  • Cole Boscia · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Boscia is battling with an undisclosed injury, and it is uncertain if he will against the Demon Deacons on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Rico Walker · TEQues. · 2026-10-11

    Walker is hampered with an undisclosed injury, and it is yet to established to play against the Demon Deacons on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Trevor Rogers · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Rogers is hampered with an undisclosed injury, and it is yet to established to play against the Demon Deacons on Saturday, October 17th.

Position units

Position-unit comparison

WAG
CAL
vs
Offense
69.6
#75 of 125
QB
76.3
#77 of 138
59.4
#125 of 126
RB
73.2
#93 of 138
64.7
#105 of 126
WR
66.0
#128 of 138
56.2
#114 of 124
TE
57.9
#132 of 138
56.0
#124 of 125
OL
67.0
#78 of 138
Defense
70.8
#62 of 126
DL
70.3
#102 of 138
73.7
#41 of 126
LB
70.6
#99 of 138
71.4
#64 of 126
DB
77.1
#15 of 138
Common opponents