AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 4 · Sat Sep 26 · 2:30 AM
#27Away
Clemson
0-0 · AVR 65.6
31p
#68Home
California
0-0 · AVR 49.3
20p
CLEM 77%23% CAL
Spread
CLEM -10.9
Total
52
Moneyline
CLEM-338CAL+338
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← CLEM advantageevenCAL advantage →
CLEM throw
CLEM QB #108CLEM WR #31
CLEM +14
CLEM run
CAL linebackers #81
CLEM +43
CAL throw
CAL protection #105
CLEM +24
CAL run
CAL line #105CAL backs #48
CLEM +44

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when CAL throws
Ian Strong
vs
Ashton Hampton
X · CAL
CB1 · CLEM
78.7
87.1
CLEM +8
when CAL runs
Adam Mohammed
vs
Sammy Brown
RB · CAL
MLB · CLEM
69.4
80.8
CLEM +11
when CLEM throws
T.J. Moore
vs
Cam Sidney
X · CLEM
CB1 · CAL
71.6
78.5
CAL +7
off the edge· hunting Sagapolutele
Bastian Swinney
vs
Will Heldt
LT · CAL
EDGE · CLEM
43.6
102.2
CLEM +59
over the middle
Dorian Thomas
vs
Branden Strozier
TE · CAL
FS · CLEM
63.0
76.1
CLEM +13
when CLEM runs
Chris Johnson Jr.
vs
Tristan Jernigan
RB · CLEM
MLB · CAL
68.0
69.7
dead even

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Clemson
CBAshton Hampton
87.127/1427
SCorey Myrick
84.747/1427
SJerome Carter III
81.873/1427
LBSammy Brown
80.848/878
WRT.J. Moore
71.643/777
RBChris Johnson Jr.
68.068/514

also out — Clemson defensive tackle (DL), Former Clemson corner (CB), P. Streko (RB), Clemson, Clemson defensive back (DB), Clemson freshman standout, Clemson player, Clemson safety (S) +10 more

California
QBJaron-Keawe Sagapolutele
79.323/308
WRIan Strong
78.725/777
DBCam Sidney
78.5107/1427
DBIsaiah Crosby
74.0165/1427
DBAiden Manutai
69.9243/1427
LBTristan Jernigan
69.7149/878

Common opponents

2 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Clemson
opponent
California
away+11.5
Syracuse#71
-2.0away
home+12.8
Virginia Tech#57
-0.6home

Projected margin

80% between -28 and 6
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKCLEM +10.995% interval: -34.8 to 1380% interval: -28.3 to 6.4-28+6CLEM wins 77%CAL wins 23%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ CLEM 32–18 CALCAL 14–56 CLEM neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesCAL 18–53 CLEM neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesCAL 21–49 CLEM neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesCAL 25–46 CLEM neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesCAL 28–42 CLEM neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesCAL 32–39 CLEM neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesCAL 35–35 CLEM neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesCAL 39–32 CLEM neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesCAL 42–28 CLEM neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesCAL 11–53 CLEM neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesCAL 14–49 CLEM neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesCAL 18–46 CLEM neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesCAL 21–42 CLEM neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesCAL 25–39 CLEM neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesCAL 28–35 CLEM neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesCAL 32–32 CLEM neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesCAL 35–28 CLEM neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesCAL 39–25 CLEM neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesCAL 7–49 CLEM neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesCAL 11–46 CLEM neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesCAL 14–42 CLEM neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesCAL 18–39 CLEM neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesCAL 21–35 CLEM neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesCAL 25–32 CLEM neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesCAL 28–28 CLEM neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesCAL 32–25 CLEM neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesCAL 35–21 CLEM neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesCAL 4–46 CLEM neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesCAL 7–42 CLEM neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesCAL 11–39 CLEM neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesCAL 14–35 CLEM neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesCAL 18–32 CLEM neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesCAL 21–28 CLEM neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesCAL 25–25 CLEM neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesCAL 28–21 CLEM neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesCAL 32–18 CLEM neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesCAL 0–42 CLEM neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesCAL 4–39 CLEM neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesCAL 7–35 CLEM neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesCAL 11–32 CLEM neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesCAL 14–28 CLEM neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesCAL 18–25 CLEM neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesCAL 21–21 CLEM neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesCAL 25–18 CLEM neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesCAL 28–14 CLEM neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)CAL 0–35 CLEM neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesCAL 4–32 CLEM neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesCAL 7–28 CLEM neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesCAL 11–25 CLEM neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesCAL 14–21 CLEM neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesCAL 18–18 CLEM neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesCAL 21–14 CLEM neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesCAL 25–11 CLEM neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)CAL 0–28 CLEM neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesCAL 4–25 CLEM neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesCAL 7–21 CLEM neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesCAL 11–18 CLEM neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesCAL 14–14 CLEM neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesCAL 18–11 CLEM neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesCAL 21–7 CLEM neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomes70635649423528totalCLEM +42CLEM +28CLEM +14PKCAL +14margin →